Times, stats, predictions as F1 heads to São Paulo

October 30, 2024 ndowd

Oct 30, 2024, 09:47 AM ET

After a dramatic race in Mexico, the points gap in both championships has reduced.

The battle between Red Bull and McLaren is much tighter, and Ferrari has emerged as an under the radar candidate to win the constructors’ championship.

With just four races left of the season, F1 heads to São Paulo for the penultimate sprint weekend.

The weather from Friday onwards is set to be cloudy and dry with highs of 26 degrees celsius.

Latest news

Christian Horner refused to confirm whether Sergio Pérez would see out the F1 season after the Brazil Grand Prix.

McLaren have told Lando Norris there is no need to change the way he drives in the F1 title battle with Red Bull’s Max Verstappen.

The FIA has fined Honda and Renault-owned Alpine a total of $1 million for procedural breaches of the 2023 cost cap for engine manufacturers.

Did F1 stewards get the Verstappen decisions right in Mexico?

Can Ferrari catch McLaren in the constructors’ championship? Plus Brazil Grand Prix preview | Listen to the latest episode of ESPN’s F1 podcast Unlapped.

Have Ferrari become legitimate constructors contenders?

Laurence Edmondson assesses Ferrari’s sudden surge into championship contention.

How the championships look

The drivers’ championship is the closest it has been since the Monaco Grand Prix in May. Verstappen leads Norris by 47 points, and Charles Leclerc by 71.

McLaren, meanwhile, remain the leaders in the constructors’ championship by 29 points. Ferrari’s double podium two races on the trot in Austin and Mexico City boosted their points haul to overtake Red Bull, who are trailing by 54 points.

The earliest Verstappen could mathematically win the championship is in two weeks if he leads Norris by 61 points after Las Vegas.

If Verstappen finishes third in the final four races and two sprints, including this weekend, Norris must win and get the fastest lap each time to win the title by one point.

(Stats: ESPN Stats & Information Group)

Standings | Calendar | Teams

Circuit stats and history

Situated in a neighbourhood between two artificial lakes, Interlagos (which translates to “between lakes”), first opened as a race track in 1940. Formula 1 first raced at the circuit in 1972 as a non-championship race before becoming part of the calendar from 1973.

The original circuit was nearly twice the length, turning in on itself multiple times like a karting track. However, its bumpy surface was considered dangerous in the first ground-effect era and it dropped off the calendar in 1980 when the Brazilian Grand Prix moved to Jacarepagua in Rio de Janiero.

F1 returned to a shortened and updated version of the circuit in 1990, which coincided with the rise of Ayrton Senna to global stardom. In 2004 the Brazilian Grand Prix was moved from early in the year towards the end of the F1 calendar and it witnessed dramatic title deciders in 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2012.

Laps: 71 laps of 4.3km. Total distance 305km.

Lap record: 1:10.540 Valtteri Bottas (2018)

Most wins: Michael Schumacher with four (1994-1995, 2000, 2002). Of the current grid, Lewis Hamilton (2016, 2018, 2021), Verstappen (2019, 2023), and George Russell (2022) have all won here.

Most poles: Senna at his home race with five (1986, 1988-1991, 1994). Of the current grid, Fernando Alonso (2005), Hamilton (2012, 2016, 2018), Bottas (2017, 2021), Verstappen (2019, 2023), and Russell (2022) have all been on pole here.

What happened last year?

No surprise that Verstappen took another dominant win at Interlagos, his 17th of the season, from lights to flag. Norris took his sixth second-place podium of the year, as Fernando Alonso pipped Perez to third.

Norris did manage to challenge Verstappen for the lead on Lap 8 with DRS, but his brief glimmer of hope was extinguished under braking for Turn 4 as the Dutchman continued to lead the race.

Who’s going to win?

Ferrari is the form team going into the Brazilian Grand Prix weekend, with wins at three of the last five races.

McLaren remain a threat — Norris showed promising pace towards the end of last weekend’s race in Mexico — but based on the overall result of the last two races it’s hard to look past a Ferrari win.

Although Carlos Sainz won in Mexico, Leclerc has been the better all-round performer this year and should be considered the favourite.