Risers, fallers and goalie notes

The fantasy hockey rankings on ESPN don’t come with a lot of room for discussion. They are usually a quick sentence or two, a reminder of the format we play as standard, and a list of the top 250 players for fantasy hockey. This week, we will take a look at some of the biggest risers and fallers since the preseason, and explore what goes into the rankings.

A reminder of the boilerplate that appears at the top of the rankings: “These rankings are based on expectations of fantasy points produced from Friday, Nov. 1, until the end of the season. Fantasy points are based on the ESPN Fantasy standard game (for skaters: goals = 2 points, assists = 1 point, shots and hits = 0.1 points, blocked shots and special-teams points = 0.5 points; for goaltenders: wins = 4 points, OT losses = 1 point, shutouts = 3 points, saves = 0.2 points, goals against = -2 points).”

Jump ahead: Goalies | Power Play | Droppables

So the standard ESPN rankings for fantasy hockey are very much projection-driven. Since the most popular way to play is points leagues, and points are quantitative, it comes down to math. How many fantasy points will a player get between date-of-rankings and the end of the season? Stack them up from most to fewest, boom, rankings done.

Sounds simple, sure, but there is a lot that goes into giving each player their projection. But instead of focusing on how that sausage is made (believe me, we will at a later date), I want to point out when the rule is broken for the rankings. See, it’s almost a list of the top 250 projected earners in fantasy points from now until the end of the season.

But there is an escape clause built into the rankings to balance positions. What good would these rankings be if they didn’t have enough goaltenders for fantasy leagues to consider? Or forwards or defense? We need to have positional balance in order for these to be useful. The standard starting lineup in ESPN fantasy leagues includes nine forwards, five defensemen and two goaltenders. If we prorate those ratios out to 250, that’s approximately 141 forwards, 78 defensemen and 31 goaltenders. I’ve made some logical adjustments to those totals to account for utility spots and the fact that there aren’t 31 goaltenders you want to keep rostered in any fantasy league.

So, the rankings stop including D once there are 76 of them ranked, and then the rankings stop including forwards once 150 of them are ranked.

That is why you will see clusters toward the bottom of the top 250. In order to make the rankings league-relevant, we’ve forced in the required amount of goaltenders. They may not project to earn as many fantasy points as some of the forwards they are being listed in place of, but at least there is room so you can put them on your roster.

Risers and fallers

Let’s examine some of the bigger gains or falls in the rankings. In this case, we will look at the entire first month going back into the preseason.

Lukas Dostal, G, Anaheim Ducks (preseason 674, current 205): It wasn’t so much that Dostal wasn’t expected to earn a greater share of the Ducks workload, or even showcase that he’s their goaltender of the future/now. No, the reason not to rank him highly in the preseason was that the Ducks weren’t expected to earn fantasy points from the crease this season. In 44 games last season, Dostal managed to earn a grand total of 40.2 fantasy points; he has 40.6 this season in nine starts. Can he keep it up? We’ll see. Get him on your team and find out. Can he crash from here? There’s precedent. In 2022-23, Carter Hart had 50.0 fantasy points across his first eight games played. He would go on to earn a grand total of 46.0 fantasy points in his remaining 47 games.

Pavel Dorofeyev, W, Vegas Golden Knights (preseason 655, current 217): I personally like Alexander Holtz for the role. It looked like it would be Victor Olofsson when the season started, but now it looks increasingly like Dorofeyev has nailed down the job as the top option for the Knights power play alongside the big three of Mark Stone, Tomas Hertl, Jack Eichel.

Ian Cole, D, Utah Hockey Club (preseason 301, current 158): Not all impressive starts to the season get sung from rooftops. Cole is quietly putting in the time and stacking up the stats. While he won’t take the week for you, Cole ranks 36th among all defenders with 23.2 fantasy points, outpacing the likes of Rasmus Dahlin, Quinn Hughes and Erik Karlsson, just to name a few.

Quinton Byfield, C, Los Angeles Kings (preseason 167, current 370): Slowly sliding down the depth chart, it doesn’t look like Byfield is quite as ready for the second-line center role as we hoped he would be. What’s more, the Kings have found other options to take the wing on the top line with Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe, so Byfield will be hard-pressed to get his role back from last season.

Cam York, D, Philadelphia Flyers (preseason 107, current 230): As solid as York was as the power-play quarterback for the Flyers last season, Jamie Drysdale won the job outright in the preseason and it doesn’t look like he’ll be giving it up anytime soon.

Tristan Jarry, G, Pittsburgh Penguins (preseason 184, current 750): Many of us hoped for a bounce-back season, if for no other reason than to increase the quantity of stable starting goaltenders available for fantasy. But the Penguins crease has been wild to start the season and Jarry has found himself in the AHL. But, for those still struggling to find consistency between the pipes, it’s notable that Jarry has found his game there with three starts, three wins and 89 of 95 shots stopped.

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Goalie notes

Boston Bruins in 13 games (five last week): Jeremy Swayman (crease share season/week: 65.8%/37.5%, fantasy points season/week: 11.8/2.8, 6.5% available) and Joonas Korpisalo (crease share season/week: 34.2%/62.5%, fantasy points season/week: 7.2/11.0, 97.2% available)

The unexpected balance in crease share was just happenstance as Swayman got yanked on a spooky Halloween outing. Both goaltenders are currently coming off of shutouts as the Bruins start to find their game. There is a chance they get into a rotation if Korpisalo keeps up the effort, which could yield some quality spot starts.

• Columbus Blue Jackets in 11 games (four last week): Daniil Tarasov (crease share season/week: 55.0%/25.0%, fantasy points season/week: -5.4/-11.0, 99.5% available) and Elvis Merzlikins (crease share season/week: 45.0%/75.0%, fantasy points season/week: 10.2/16.0, 94.8% available)

• Colorado Avalanche in 12 games (three last week): Justus Annunen (crease share season/week: 49.4%/33.4%, fantasy points season/week: 12.8/-2.0, 80.5% available) and Alexandar Georgiev (crease share season/week: 42.3%/33.3%, fantasy points season/week: -20.8/-1.8, 31.4% available) and Kaapo Kahkonen (crease share season/week: 8.2%/33.3%, fantasy points season/week: -4.8/-4.8, 99.7% available)

• Los Angeles Kings in 13 games (four last week): Darcy Kuemper (crease share season/week: 54.4%/75.9%, fantasy points season/week: 17.8/11.4, 78.3% available) and David Rittich (crease share season/week: 42.1%/24.1%, fantasy points season/week: 1.0/-2.6, 98.6% available)

• Ottawa Senators in 11 games (three last week): Anton Forsberg (crease share season/week: 48.8%/33.4%, fantasy points season/week: 18.2/11.4, 98.2% available) and Linus Ullmark (crease share season/week: 45.9%/66.6%, fantasy points season/week: 5.8/6.4, 11.4% available)

• Pittsburgh Penguins in 13 games (three last week): Joel Blomqvist (crease share season/week: 44.2%/32.4%, fantasy points season/week: 8.0/-1.0, 97.4% available) and Alex Nedeljkovic (crease share season/week: 39.0%/67.6%, fantasy points season/week: 7.0/13.4, 96.9% available) and Tristan Jarry (crease share season/week: 16.8%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: -8.0/DNP, 77.8% available)

• Vancouver Canucks in 10 games (three last week): Kevin Lankinen (crease share season/week: 70.4%/66.7%, fantasy points season/week: 29.4/2.8, 40.2% available) and Arturs Silovs (crease share season/week: 29.6%/33.3%, fantasy points season/week: -17.0/-8.8, 96.6% available)

Power-play notes

Frank Vatrano, RW, Anaheim Ducks (available in 20.2% of ESPN leagues): Elevated to the top power-play unit in place of Cutter Gauthier, Vatrano finally notched his first power play point of the season. I’m not sure he’s quite back into must-start territory, but it’s a positive sign.

Jason Zucker, LW, Buffalo Sabres (96.5%): The top unit that includes Zucker, Tage Thompson, Dylan Cozens, JJ Peterka and Rasmus Dahlin has two power-play goals in the past three games and Zucker has been in on both of them.

Connor Bedard, C, Chicago Blackhawks (0.7%): Only five power-play points in 13 games isn’t going to be a good enough rate to really elevate Bedard to the fantasy elite this season, so the Hawks need to pick things up. Part of the problem might be consistency here. Bedard and Seth Jones are locks on the top unit, but there’s been a mix and match each game from there of Tyler Bertuzzi, Ryan Donato, Philipp Kurashev, Lukas Reichel and Teuvo Teravainen in the past three games alone.

Patrick Kane, RW, Detroit Red Wings (29.3%): A part of the hottest power-play unit in the NHL, Kane, Dylan Larkin, Alex DeBrincat, Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider have four goals on the advantage across their past three games. While Kane’s personal production isn’t quite up to fantasy snuff yet, all signs point to the situation being a good one for him this season in Detroit. Maybe he just needs to warm up a bit more.

Uvis Balinskis, D, Florida Panthers (99.7%): As mentioned in the waiver watch on Monday, Balinskis locked down the quarterback job while the Cats were in Finland. Add him now and see what happens, as the forwards on this top unit are extremely dangerous.

Timothy Liljegren, D, San Jose Sharks (99.5%): It looks like the Sharks are going to give Liljegren a chance to compete with Jake Walman for the quarterback job. Whether that matters is still tough to say until the team gets Macklin Celebrini back in action, which, by the way, is supposed to be Tuesday night.

Ryker Evans, D, Seattle Kraken (82.8%): While I’m still not clear on what the top unit is for the Kraken versus the second unit, Evans is leading the team in power-play minutes lately. That said, neither unit is scoring any goals at the moment.

Droppables

Devon Toews, D, Colorado Avalanche (rostered in 70.4%): Maybe things will start to improve this month. Artturi Lehkonen is back now. Jonathan Drouin‘s return date is staying relatively close, even when it does get pushed back. It’s reported that Valeri Nichushkin will be back on the ice mid-month when his suspension ends. Gabriel Landeskog is still a potential returnee to the club at some point. All of this to say that Toews fantasy doldrums could be coming to an end when the Avalanche’s collective sail finally takes wind later this month. So is he really droppable? It depends on your league size, but 0.8 fantasy points per game isn’t helping you win anything.