Manfred expecting Sasaki to sign after Jan. 15

NEW YORK — With uncertainty looming over when Japanese baseball star Roki Sasaki will sign with a major league club, Major League Baseball commissioner Rob Manfred offered some clarity Wednesday, saying that he expects Sasaki to be part of the 2025 international amateur class.

That would mean Sasaki, one of the top pitchers in the world, will be posted after Dec. 2 and will not sign with a club before Jan. 15.

“It kind of looks like the way it’s going to shake out that the signing there, just because of the timing, will happen in the new pool period,” Manfred said at MLB’s Manhattan offices, where the owners meetings are taking place this week.

Earlier this month, the Chiba Lotte Marines made official what was anticipated around the baseball industry for months, announcing it would post Sasaki this winter.

The signing period for international free agents stretches from Jan. 15 to Dec. 15 every year. All 30 clubs have 45 days to negotiate with a player from Nippon Professional Baseball once he is posted. If a deal is not struck in that 45-day period, the player is returned to his NPB team.

In Sasaki’s case, he is considered an international amateur free agent and, as a result, can only sign a minor league deal because he is under the age of 25 and didn’t play six seasons in NPB. That designation, combined with international bonus pools being capped, suppresses the amount of money teams can pay the 23-year-old Sasaki, who surely would have garnered a nine-figure contract in an unrestricted market if he had waited another two years to join an MLB club.

Sasaki would have been eligible for the 2024 signing period only if he were posted before Dec. 2 because the 45-day negotiating window would elapse before the 2025 signing period begins. Most clubs have spent their allotment for the 2024 period. Sasaki waiting until the 2025 period resets each club’s budget. That could theoretically give other teams a better opportunity to land a starting pitcher with a triple-digit fastball, nasty splitter and top-flight slider at a bargain price a year after the Los Angeles Dodgers signed then-25-year-old Yoshinobu Yamamoto to a 12-year, $325 million contract last winter.

The Dodgers have been widely considered the favorites to sign Sasaki, too. They had the most international bonus pool money remaining for the 2024 signing period — about $2.5 million — ostensibly to offer Sasaki. Rules stipulate their 2025 bonus pool is capped at approximately $5.1 million.

The largest bonus pools for 2025 are set at around $7.5 million, though most teams have committed the majority, if not all, of their money to players in nonbinding deals. Clubs could, however, choose not to honor those verbal pacts and trade for international bonus space to offer Sasaki more money.