Big questions from CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying

Qualification for the 2026 World Cup in South America kicked off with six rounds last year, less than nine months after Lionel Messi and Argentina won the 2022 final in Qatar.

Since September, another six have been played, leaving the campaign two thirds complete. From now on, things are a little more spaced out with double-headers in late March, early June and mid-September.

So, after the latest frantic burst of matches, what are the big questions hanging over the teams as they prepare for their final push to reach the finals in the United States, Mexico and Canada.

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Argentina

1st place: 25 points (goal difference, +14)

Is a glorious era coming to a close?

Tuesday’s 1-0 win over Peru took Argentina to 25 points. In all of the previous 10-team campaigns, that has been enough to guarantee sixth place. Since the top six teams qualify automatically for 2026, we can safely conclude that with a third of the matches still to go, the World Cup holders have already done enough to ensure they will be there in North America to defend their crown.

And yet. There is a vague sense of unease around, perhaps best expressed by Juan Pablo Varsky, one of the country’s leading football writers. After last week’s 2-1 defeat to Paraguay, he wrote that the Peru game would “represent something very important — the end of the nucleus that we have come to know as the best Argentina side ever.”

He is referring to a feeling that the current team may have passed its peak — that Ángel Di María is impossible to replace, that Messi’s international future remains uncertain, perhaps to a view that the side needs a rethink. Can Messi operate together with both Lautaro Martínez and Julián Álvarez? Probably not against the best sides. “The moment has come,” Varsky concluded, “to renew, change, look for alternatives.” We will soon find out if coach Lionel Scaloni agrees with him.

Uruguay

2nd: 20 (+8)

Has the storm passed?

This time last year, Marcelo Bielsa’s Uruguay had just beaten Brazil and Argentina, and were the continent’s in-form team. The coach appeared an excellent fit for an ageing side in need of a changing of the guard.

But things started to go wrong during the Copa América. The long-term injury to Barcelona centre-back Ronald Araújo has sent shudders all through the side, and then there is the question of the relationship between a notoriously eccentric coach and his players. After retiring from international football, Luis Suárez went public with a list of complaints that seemed to be widely shared in the dressing room, and suddenly Uruguay were plunged into crisis. They failed to score for four games, even managing to lose to Peru, and more poor results this month might have made the situation unsustainable. And the opponents were tough.

But Uruguay rallied for a dramatic win over Colombia and a battling draw away to Brazil. Bielsa’s decisions paid off: leaving Manuel Ugarte, by the coach’s admission the best player of his reign, out of the starting lineup against Colombia; taking Darwin Núñez off at half-time against Brazil worked out OK. Uruguay seem to be back on course.

Ecuador

3rd: 19 (+7)

Have they found the missing piece?

Ecuador have a claim to be the most solid side in CONMEBOL qualifying. Were it not for a three-point penalty they would be second in the table. Tuesday’s 1-0 win away to Colombia might be the best performance of the entire campaign — both for the way they controlled the game for the first 20 minutes. and also for how they defended for over an hour after having Piero Hincapié sent off.

The defensive unit is extremely impressive. Just four goals conceded in 12 games tells its own story. Ecuador have a magnificent crop of centre-backs, and Moisés Caicedo spearheads a dynamic, athletic midfield. The problem is at the other end, where there is a dearth of strikers. Ecuador remain over-dependent on Enner Valencia — whose winner against Colombia was superb, but who is now at the veteran stage. There are few alternatives. Kevin Rodríguez is a willing tryer, but not a consistent goal threat. Leo Campana struggles physically at this level.

But at least Gonzalo Plata is back. The strong, left-footed winger was a star of Ecuador’s excellent under-20 side of 2019. Since then his nomadic career has proved wayward, on and off the pitch. He recently joined Flamengo in Brazil, and after an uneasy start is beginning to flower. He was a big plus point for Ecuador in this month’s games, and if he can stay consistent he can add greatly to the team’s firepower.

Colombia

4th: 19 (+5)

How will the coach react to his first crisis?

Nestor Lorenzo went two years unbeaten with Colombia until falling to Argentina in the final of the Copa América. His team were still the only unbeaten side in the World Cup qualifiers — but they have now lost three of their last four matches. This is new territory for Lorenzo and his men.

True, all three were narrow, single-goal defeats. But how much will this sequence shake the faith of the dressing room? Will there be a serious rethink? James Rodríguez is vital to the team, but at what point does his lack of activity at club level become a problem? Will Jhon Durán be trusted to become the regular first-choice centre-forward? At the moment that role often belongs to Jhon Córdoba, but the more the coach insists with him the more chances he misses.

Next up, at the end of March, with Duran once more suspended, is the visit to Brazil, a game where Colombia can expect to be seriously tested. After that one, most of the remaining fixtures look easier, but another defeat (a fourth in five games) could open up the wounds of a generation of players still suffering from the trauma of missing out on the Qatar World Cup. Colombia will surely be present in 2026. A few months ago it seemed as if they might even travel to North America as one of the tournament surprises. Can they preserve that belief?

Brazil

5th: 18 (+6)

What is stopping Brazil playing to their potential?

Many of those present in a half-full stadium in Salvador jeered the home side on Tuesday after Brazil were held to a 1-1 draw by Uruguay. Fifth place after 12 games is a poor return for a team with such talent — most national sides would die to have Brazil’s goalkeepers, centre-backs and especially their wingers.

But perhaps therein lies the problem. Brazil’s talent is unevenly distributed around the pitch. There are more strikers in wide spaces than they can use. One of them, Raphinha, is now operating more centrally. When they go at speed in space it can be exhilarating, with the opposing defence at full stretch to hold them. But it can all be too frenetic, too direct, without pauses and changes in rhythm. And also, crucially, the way the side is set up is leaving Brazil too open in central midfield. In game after game they are conceding because the opposition are given too much space in front of Brazil’s defensive line.

The good news is that there should be no lingering doubts about qualifying for 2026. They were dismissed by last month’s victories over the bottom two teams in the table. This gives coach Dorival Júnior time to improve the balance of his side — and on the road to 2026, he should welcome the fact that he has some tricky games ahead. Every one of them is invaluable practice, because there is a lot of work ahead if the team are to make good on Dorival’s promise and make it all the way to the next World Cup final.

Paraguay

6th: 17 (+1)

How on earth have they done it?

After last year’s six rounds Paraguay had only five points and just one goal to their name. Things then got worse. In the Copa América they were knocked out in the group phase after losing all three matches. But now they look well on course to make it to their first World Cup since 2010. In this year’s six rounds they picked up more points than anyone else, despite a difficult run of fixtures. This has been an extraordinary turn around, and most of the credit has to go to Gustavo Alfaro, their third coach of the campaign.

A late choice to take charge of Ecuador in the last World Cup cycle, Alfaro took instantly to national team football. In a lengthy history in his native Argentina, Alfaro had performed best with smaller teams who are able to play on the counter-attack. This has made him a good fit for his national teams. He did a fine job with Ecuador and seems to be doing an even better one with Paraguay. Low-key, unflashy, he is an excellent defensive organiser whose teams can also carry an attacking threat.

He has been greatly boosted by the return to fitness of Brighton & Hove Albion‘s Julio Enciso, who missed last year’s games through injury. And two wins from the remaining six games might be enough to get Paraguay over the line.

Bolivia

7th: 13 (-14)

Do the numbers add up?

Bolivia always seemed likely to benefit from the expansion of the World Cup. They are so strong at home — at the extreme altitude of La Paz — that they could hope to make it to their first World Cup since 1994 without picking up points on the road.

But they got off to a disastrous start, losing their first two home games. The situation called for desperate measures. This year they have moved their home base even higher, to the stadium in El Alto, which makes life even harder for unacclimatised opponents. And then came September’s shock win away to Chile, their first victory on the road in World Cup qualification for over 30 years.

It seemed, then, just a case of winning the remaining home games. But they have just dropped two points with a 2-2 draw with Paraguay. This puts the pressure on. There are three more home matches. Win them and Bolivia go to 21 points — probably not enough to finish in the top six, but likely to be sufficient to come seventh and have the chance of a play off.

Venezuela

8th: 12 (-4)

On the road to heartbreak?

A year ago, after six rounds, Venezuela were lying fourth in the table — above Brazil — and dreaming of finally making their World Cup debut. Such belief was reinforced by a promising Copa América. But the subsequent six rounds have proved extremely disappointing. Venezuela did not win a single game and added only three points, the lowest total of any side. The 2026 dream is in serious danger of slipping away. There have been injury problems, especially to Yangel Herrera, the team’s best midfielder, and time is perhaps finally catching up with centre-forward Salomón Rondón.

But all is not lost. Venezuela remain strong at their home base of Maturin. In the course of these last six matches they drew at home with Uruguay, Argentina and Brazil. The remaining home matches include Peru and Bolivia. After eight rounds without a win, Venezuela have it within them to get back in contention for the playoff slot. But can they cope with a situation where a win is a necessity rather than a bonus?

Chile

9th: 9 (-11)

Can coach Gareca pull off a miracle?

Peru were dreadful before the arrival of Argentine coach Ricardo Gareca, and have been dreadful once more since his departure. While he was in charge, those same players reached their first World Cup since 1982 and came very close to another.

Can Gareca do something similar with Chile? His reign has been a massive disappointment so far. But Tuesday’s 4-2 win over Venezuela leaves Chile just four points behind Bolivia, who are currently in the playoff position. This hardly seems justified. Chile have been so poor — even losing at home to Bolivia — that they are extremely lucky to still be in with the remotest chance of making it to 2026. But, as we have seen, Gareca has a track record.

Perhaps the bigger question is this — how come the Copa América champions of 2015 and 2016 have declined so much? No replacements have appeared for the golden generation, youth development work has been substandard and the transformation of Chile’s clubs into business, held up as a panacea 15 years ago, has not had the desired results. Nevertheless, the possibility of 2026 redemption exists — although it will almost certainly need a win away to Bolivia in June. If Gareca can find a way to win that game, then he really will be a miracle worker.

Peru

10th: 7 (-12)

Did anyone really expect anything better?

A dismal total of three goals in 12 games tells its own story. Uruguayan coach Jorge Fossati, the second of the campaign, has tried to make his team solid, with his favourite back three system. But it has come at the cost of posing an attacking threat. The sad fact is that he has little to work with. Approaching his 41st birthday, Paolo Guerrero is still the centre-forward.

Peruvian football is going through a dismal time. The last time one of the country’s clubs made it out of the group phase in the Copa Libertadores, South America’s Champions League, was back in 2013. Peru has just lost the right to stage the continent’s U20 competition at the start of next year. The president of the local football association was recently arrested, accused of heading a criminal organisation. It is no surprise that Peru sit at the bottom of the table.