MLB Awards Week results, analysis: Judge wins AL MVP; Will Ohtani also be unanimous in NL?
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Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Staff Writer
Welcome to MLB Awards Week.
November has become awards season in baseball, which increasingly serves as a way to keep eyeballs on the game before the hot stove season ramps up. So far, we’ve gotten the Gold Glove Awards, Silver Sluggers, the All-MLB Team and more.
Now, it’s time for the biggies — the four major awards determined by Baseball Writers’ Association of America voting and that will feature prominently in baseball history books and Hall of Fame résumés of the future.
On Monday, a pair of starting pitchers — Paul Skenes of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Luis Gil of the New York Yankees — got the week rolling, winning the Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year Award in the National League and American League, respectively.
On Tuesday, the 2024 Managers of the Year were named: Stephen Vogt of the Cleveland Guardians in the American League and Pat Murphy of the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League.
On Wednesday, two dominant pitchers officially claimed their Cy Young awards: Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal took home his first award, while the Atlanta Braves‘ Chris Sale put an exclamation point on his comeback season.
On Thursday, Aaron Judge was named American League MVP with the National League results still to be announced.
Here’s the rest of the week’s schedule:
Thursday: MVP Awards
Below, we list the three finalists in the remaining categories, with what you need to know before the results are announced, and who our panel of ESPN MLB experts believes should take home the hardware. Each section has been updated with news and analysis as the awards were handed out.
Jump to:
MVP: AL | NL
Cy Young: AL | NL
Manager of the Year: AL | NL
Rookie of the Year: AL | NL
American League MVP
Winner:
Finally tally: Aaron Judge 420 (all 30 first-place votes), Bobby Witt Jr. 270, Juan Soto 229, Gunnar Henderson 208, José Ramírez 184, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 99, Tarik Skubal 93, Jarren Duran 90, Yordan Alvarez 75, Brent Rooker 40, Emmanuel Clase 36, Cal Raleigh 12, Rafael Devers 5, Anthony Santander 4, Jose Altuve 1, Tyler Holton 1, Seth Lugo 1, Corey Seager 1, Framber Valdez 1.
Doolittle’s take: It simply could have been no other way. Perhaps the best way to frame just how off the scale Judge’s 2024 season was is to put the season enjoyed by the runner-up in the balloting — Witt — into historical context. Witt’s 9.4 bWAR is tied for the 60th-best total among hitters during the 124-year history of the American League. And yet not only did Judge win every first place vote, there really wasn’t a cogent argument for any other outcome.
Judge’s 10.8 bWAR lands at No. 13 on that same list. The only players ahead of him are Babe Ruth, Carl Yastrzemski, Lou Gehrig, Cal Ripken Jr., Ty Cobb and Mickey Mantle. It just doesn’t get any more exclusive than that.
Judge’s raw totals are staggering enough — .322/.458/.701 with 58 homers, 144 RBI and 122 runs. That stat line is off the scale no matter what the league context is, but what we have to keep in mind is that this season was a depressed offensive environment, one in which the AL’s collective .240 batting average was tied for the fifth-lowest in history. And the other seasons ahead of it were all in the pre-DH era. Once you adjust for league context, you realize that Judge just put up one of the 10 best offensive seasons in the history of the Junior Circuit, and now owns two of the top 20, along with his other MVP season in 2022.
As the years progress, I’d expect there to be increasing chatter about including the postseason in consideration for the voting. As the playoff field expands and teams build with that entire month of play in mind, it seems more and more difficult to put it aside. As much as Judge struggled in October, I don’t think that would have changed the balloting, except maybe he wouldn’t have been a unanimous pick.
It’s somewhat debatable though. While the Royals showed well in the playoffs, Witt didn’t have a huge output during that run, so he didn’t close the gap. On the other hand, Soto led all hitters in playoff WPA and that would have bolstered his case, especially since he cracked that unforgettable pennant-winning homer in Cleveland. But I still think Judge would have won.
This was a truly epic season in terms of elite performances for AL hitters, a group who distanced themselves from a population of hitters who collectively struggled by historical standards. Rather than being dragged down by the context, this only enhances the campaign Judge enjoyed. In a season with a number of worthy MVP picks, Judge stood above them all, and it wasn’t really close.
Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Aaron Judge, Yankees (170 AXE, winner)
2. Bobby Witt Jr., Royals (162, finalist)
3. Juan Soto, Yankees (153, finalist)
4. Gunnar Henderson, Orioles (150)
5. Jarren Duran, Red Sox (144)
6. Jose Ramirez, Guardians (140)
7. (tie) Yordan Alvarez, Astros (133)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (133)
9. Brent Rooker, Athletics (131)
10. Corey Seager, Rangers (129)
Note: AXE is an index that creates a consensus rating from the leading value metrics (WAR, from Fangraphs and Baseball Reference) and contextual metrics (win probability added and championship probability added, both from Baseball Reference), with 100 represent the MLB average.
MVP must-reads:
Aaron Judge is the fastest ever to 300 home runs — but how many more will he hit?
Only Juan Soto can decide if his future is with the Yankees
Baseball’s next superstar? Bobby Witt Jr.’s rise to MLB’s top tier
National League MVP
Finalists:
Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers
Francisco Lindor, New York Mets
Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks
Experts’ pick: Ohtani (9 votes; unanimous)
Doolittle’s take: When the DH became a part of big league baseball back in the 1970s, those who defended it tended to point out how it would allow older superstars to hang around for a few more years. Thus the default image of the DH was the aging, plodding slugger trying to generate occasional glimpses of what he used to be.
Things have changed. Ohtani did not don a baseball glove during a game this season and yet established himself as far and away the most dominant player in the National League. The numbers were staggering: .310/.390/.646, 54 homers, 59 stolen bases. He scored 134 runs and drove in 130, even though 57% of his plate appearances came as the Dodgers’ leadoff hitter.
As with Judge, the intrigue isn’t about whether Ohtani will win, but whether or not he’ll be a unanimous pick. And, let’s face it, there’s not much intrigue about that, either. If Ohtani does it, it’ll be the third time he has been a unanimous selection. No one else has done it even twice.
MVP must-reads:
51 HRs AND stolen bases?! How Shohei Ohtani transformed MLB — again
Breaking down Ohtani’s path to 50/50 — and the historic game that got him there
How Francisco Lindor became the heart and soul of the Mets
Announced awards
American League Cy Young
Winner: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
Final tally: Skubal 210 (30 first-place votes); Seth Lugo, Royals 93; Emmanuel Clase, Guardians 66; Cole Ragans, Royals 48; Corbin Burnes, Orioles 47; Logan Gilbert, Mariners 25; Framber Valdez, Astros 17; Kirby Yates, Rangers 2; Yusei Kikuchi, Astros 1; Cade Smith, Guardians 1
Experts’ pick: Skubal (9 votes; unanimous)
Doolittle’s take: This was hardly a nail-biter: Skubal dominated in too many ways to be ignored. Skubal swept the AL leaderboard (18-4, 2.39 ERA, 228 strikeouts, 2.50 FIP, 170 ERA+), joining NL winner Chris Sale to give us two triple crown winners for only the fourth time in a full season.
Though Sale’s dominance was a return to form, for Skubal it was a matter of a long touted hurler putting it all together. Before 2024, he had never qualified for an ERA title, reached double digits in wins or made an All-Star game. Now he’s in the conversation about the best pitchers in the game right now.
By the time the postseason arrived, Skubal was virtually the last man standing on a Detroit pitching staff that was bullpenning its way to the playoffs — a plan that never would have worked without Skubal locking down one game every fifth day. He only got better as the season advanced, going 6-0 with a 1.94 ERA over his last nine regular-season outings — all this after dealing with a trade deadline during which there were whispers he might be dealt.
Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Skubal, Tigers (152 AXE, winner)
2. Lugo, Royals (149, finalist)
3. Ragans, Royals (139)
4. Clase, Guardians (135, finalist)
5. (tie) Garrett Crochet, White Sox (133)
Valdez, Astros (133)
Note: AXE is an index that creates a consensus rating from the leading value metrics (WAR, from Fangraphs and Baseball Reference) and contextual metrics (win probability added and championship probability added, both from Baseball Reference), with 100 representing the MLB average.
Cy Young must-read:
It’s Tarik Skubal time: With season on the line, Tigers turn to ‘best pitcher in the world’
National League Cy Young
Winner: Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves
Final tally: Sale 198 (26 first-place votes); Zack Wheeler, Phillies 130 (4); Paul Skenes, Pirates 53; Dylan Cease, Padres 45; Shota Imanaga, Cubs 38; Logan Webb, Giants 18, Michael King, Padres (14), Hunter Greene, Reds 5, Ryan Helsley, Cardinals 4, Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies 2, Reynaldo Lopez, Braves 1, Sean Manaea, Mets 1; Aaron Nola, Phillies 1
Experts’ pick: Sale (8 votes); Wheeler (1 vote)
Doolittle’s take: A few years ago, it seemed inevitable that Sale would win a Cy Young award. From 2012 to 2018, Sale finished sixth or better in the voting in each season, peaking at second in 2017. But since he last showed up in the balloting — and through 2023 — Sale went a composite 17-18 with a 4.16 ERA. It seemed as if his window had closed. Until, revived (and healthy) in his first season with the Braves, Sale was as good as he ever was. In the end, he was an easy choice for this honor.
Though we knew the injuries had held Sale back, there was still no way to know that he’d do what he did in Atlanta in 2024: 18-3, 2.38 ERA, 225 strikeouts, 2.09 FIP, 174 ERA+ and 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings. All of those totals led NL pitchers.
For Sale, this crowning achievement bolsters an eventual Hall of Fame case. But until that comes up for debate, the breakout could be the harbinger of the kind of late-career dominance that we’ve seen from other aces from his generation such as Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. That, too, will further his journey to Cooperstown.
Chris Sale is back, and he has never been better.
Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Chris Sale, Braves (153, winner)
2. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (149, finalist)
3. Paul Skenes, Pirates (143, finalist)
4. Hunter Greene, Reds (141)
5. Reynaldo Lopez, Braves (136)
Cy Young must-reads:
Did Chris Sale pitch himself into the HOF this year?
The best stuff in baseball? How Paul Skenes is using his pitches to dominate MLB
American League Manager of the Year
Winner: Stephen Vogt, Cleveland Guardians
Final tally: Vogt 142 (27 first-place votes); Matt Quatraro, Royals 73 (2); A.J. Hinch, Tigers 41 (1); Joe Espada, Astros 6; Aaron Boone, Yankees 3; Mark Kostay, Athletics 3; Rocco Baldelli, Twins 1; Alex Cora, Red Sox 1
Experts’ pick: Quatraro (5 votes); Hinch (3 votes); Vogt (1 vote)
Doolittle’s take: Vogt did more than fill the shoes of Terry Francona — he made it seem as if he’d been leading the Guardians for years. He led a Guardians club, not expected to contend, to the AL Central title.
Vogt did this while doing managerial things that catch your eye. He leaned heavily on the game’s most dynamic bullpen to circumnavigate a slew of rotation injuries and underperformance. He also oversaw a transition in Cleveland’s collective offensive approach, which mixed in a little more slugging from the same group of hitters than had been evident before.
It’s a remarkable achievement, one recognized by a dominating showing in the balloting.
Alas, that spread in the final vote — 27 first-place votes for Vogt to two for Quatraro — is really hard to grok. The bottom line is that the Royals lost 106 games in 2023, then won 86 in 2024, a stunning turnaround, especially because it did not happen because of a sudden wave of prospects arriving at Kauffman Stadium. Quatraro is quiet, steady, consistent and a perfect fit in the lineage of successful Royals field generals. He is the epitome of what you think of when you think of someone who wins Manager of the Year.
The competition was steep. Hinch did perhaps the best managing job in a career that has been full of virtuoso performances. Vogt was fantastic. But the sheer scale of Quatraro’s accomplishment with the Royals seemed too much to overlook. Yet, it was. This was a miss by the voters.
Here’s how my EARL leaderboard had it:
1. Quatraro, Royals (105.3 EARL, finalist)
2. Vogt, Guardians (104.9, winner)
3. Kotsay, Athletics (103.9)
4. Hinch, Tigers (103.2, finalist)
5. Boone, Yankees (101.8)
Note: EARL is a metric that looks at how a team’s winning percentage varies from expectations generated by projections, run differential and one-run record. While attributing these measures to managerial performance is presumptive, the metric does tend to track well with the annual balloting.
National League Manager of the Year
Winner: Pat Murphy, Milwaukee Brewers
Final tally: Murphy 144 (27 first-place votes); Mike Shildt, Padres 70 (1); Carlos Mendoza, Mets 35 (1); Torey Lovullo, Diamondbacks 8; Rob Thomson, Phillies 5 (1); Brian Snitker, Braves 4; Dave Roberts, Dodgers 3; Oliver Marmol, Cardinals 1
Experts’ pick: Murphy (6 votes); Mendoza (3 votes)
Doolittle’s take: Has there every been a comparable situation to what has happened with Murphy over the past 13 months or so?
Murphy was a decorated college coach, leading Notre Dame from 1988 to 1994, then the storied program at Arizona State from 1995 to 2009. That’s pretty good. He then entered the professional ranks and settled into a trusted whisperer role, serving as the bench coach to one of his college players, Craig Counsell, in Milwaukee.
Then Counsell, largely considered the best manager in the game, bolted for the rival Cubs, signing the most lucrative pact a skipper has ever inked. Murphy perhaps could have followed him to Wrigley Field, but instead was given the reins of a team in transition, one that was going young (or cheap) and would have entered 2024 with reduced expectations whether or not Counsell had left.
Under Murphy, the Brewers responded, winning an NL Central title by a dominating 10-game chasm. The young players — such as Jackson Chourio, Sal Frelick and Joey Ortiz — were integrated seamlessly. The Brewers leaned on their bullpen more than ever, even though star closer Devin Williams sat out a big chunk of the season. They adopted a more dynamic style of play.
Murphy didn’t just take part in that — he led the way, putting his stamp on the team when he could very easily have been viewed as a stand-in for the Counsell Way. He set the tone well in advance of the season, declaring that the team was going to win even as some of its most recognizable names were coming off the roster.
It has been a long time coming for Murphy, 65, but this is more than a lifetime achievement award. It’s an honor well earned. And, not for nothing, he now has one more Manager of the Year Award than Counsell.
Here’s how my EARL leaderboard had it:
1. Dave Martinez, Nationals (106.7 EARL)
2. Shildt, Padres (106.5, finalist)
3. Murphy, Brewers (106.4, winner)
4. Thomson, Phillies (104.9)
5. Mendoza, Mets (104.8, finalist)
American League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Luis Gil, New York Yankees
Final tally: Gil 106 (15 first-place votes); Colton Cowser, Orioles, 101 (13); Austin Wells, Yankees, 17; Mason Miller, Athletics, 16 (1); Cade Smith, Guardians, 12 (1); Wilyer Abreu; Red Sox, 11; Wyatt Langford, Rangers, 7
Experts’ pick: Gil (7 votes); Cowser (1 vote); Smith (1 vote)
Doolittle’s take: This was a race in which you could have plucked the names of any of about seven players out of a hat without worry of finding a wrong answer. Of course, by the time Monday rolled around, we were down to three names in that hat, the finalists, but the statement holds true. There was no wrong answer, which is probably why the voting was so close.
With no clear front-runner, voters had to weigh some narrative aspects alongside a muddy statistical leaderboard, one that gave different answers depending on which site you happened to pull up. That’s why AXE exists — to create a consensus from these different systems — but it didn’t do much to clarify the AL rookie derby.
Gil and Wells, both essential rookie contributors to the Yankees’ run to the World Series, excelled with a lot of eyeballs on them all season, and that certainly didn’t hurt their support. Cowser’s role as an every-day player for the playoff-bound Orioles also had a high-visibility context. It feels like that, as much as anything, is why this trio emerged as finalists in a hard-to-separate field.
The emergence of Gil and the gaps he filled in an injury-depleted Yankees rotation were too much to ignore. It was a surprising emergence: Gil is 26, and he debuted in professional baseball way back in 2015 as a 17-year-old in the Minnesota organization. But when you talk about impact, you can conjure up all sorts of ill scenarios for New York had he not led AL rookies with 15 wins, 141 strikeouts and a 3.50 ERA (minimum 10 starts).
The voters got it right, if only because they could not possibly have gotten it wrong.
Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Smith, Guardians (117 AXE)
2. Langford, Rangers (116)
3. (tie) Miller, Athletics (115)
Abreu, Red Sox (115)
Gil, Yankees (115, winner)
6. Wells, Yankees (113, finalist)
7. Cowser, Orioles (111, finalist)
ROY must-read:
Bump in the road or ominous sign: Has Luis Gil hit a wall after his red-hot start?
National League Rookie of the Year
Winner: Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates
Final tally: Skenes 136 (23 first-place votes); Jackson Merrill, Padres, 104 (7); Jackson Chourio, Brewers, 26; Shota Imanaga, Cubs, 4
Experts’ pick: Skenes (8 votes); Merrill (1 vote)
Doolittle’s take: Skenes emerged as the winner of a star-studded NL rookie class that was deep in impact performances put up by high-upside prospects who should only get better as the years progress. It was also a classic debate, one that stirs the passions whether you are driven by traditional approaches or the most current of performance metrics: Can a starting pitcher really produce more value than a position player given the disparity in games played?
It’s a debate mostly settled in the MVP races, where pitchers only occasionally bob up to forefront of the conversation. The one in the NL Rookie of the Year race this season between Skenes, Merrill and, to a lesser extent, Chourio was a classic example.
Sure, Skenes was absolutely dominant; he’s a finalist in the NL Cy Young race, for goodness sake. Still, we’re talking about 23 games. Meanwhile, Merrill’s gifts were on display in 156 contests for the Padres, while Chourio played in 148 games for Milwaukee. Yes, the value metrics are supposed to clarify these comparisons, but, still, how do you weigh that kind of disparity between players with entirely different jobs?
In the end, I’m not sure there’s a right answer to that debate, nor is there a wrong answer to this balloting. Each of the finalists would have been a slam-dunk winner in many seasons. Skenes might very well be the best pitcher in baseball by the time we get to these discussions a year from now, if he isn’t already. In less than a year and a half, he has been the top overall pick in the draft, started an All-Star Game and become a finalist in two of the NL’s major postseason awards.
You can certainly makes cases for Merrill and Chourio. But you can’t really make a case against Skenes, 23 games or not. Since earned runs became official in 1913, Skenes became the fourth pitcher with a strikeout rate of at least 11 per nine innings while posting an ERA under 2. He’s just that much of an outlier.
Here’s how my AXE leaderboard had it:
1. Skenes, Pirates (131 AXE, winner)
2. Merrill, Padres (128, finalist)
3. Chourio, Brewers (123, finalist)
4. Masyn Winn, Cardinals (119)
5. Imanaga, Cubs (117)
ROY must-reads:
Why Pirates called up Paul Skenes now — and why he could be MLB’s next great ace
Ranking MLB’s best rookies: Is Paul Skenes or an outfielder named Jackson No. 1?
Earlier awards
Executive of the Year: Brewers president Matt Arnold named exec of the year
Doolittle’s take: I’ve written a couple of times this year that I think the Brewers might be the best-run organization in baseball right now, so that speaks to how I view the work of Arnold and his staff. I also have a kind of organizational mash-up metric I track during the season that considers things such as injuries, rookie contribution, payroll efficiency and in-season acquisitions, and Milwaukee topped that leaderboard.
And yet it’s somewhat stunning that Kansas City’s J.J. Picollo did not win this honor. He oversaw the team’s leap from 106 losses to the playoffs, using free agency to bolster the roster and staying proactive at the trade deadline (and the August waiver period) to provide essential upgrades that put the Royals over the top. It’s hard to do a better one-season job as a baseball ops chief than what Picollo did this season.
All-MLB: 2024 All-MLB First and Second Team winners
Doolittle’s take: Nobody asked me about these picks, but they read as if they did. I had the same first team. On the second team, I might have opted for Matt Chapman over Manny Machado at third base, but if that’s my one note, the selectors did a heck of a job. Or maybe I did.
Gold Gloves: Royals’ Bobby Witt Jr. among 14 first-time Gold Glove winners
Doolittle’s take: For all the uncertainty in making defensive picks, the consensus defensive metric I used more or less mirrored the Gold Glove selections. I would have taken Chourio or Washington’s Jacob Young as one of the NL’s outfielders in place of Ian Happ.
