Trump’s pick for Treasury Secretary has markets betting he’ll take the sting out of ‘America First’ trade policies
Analysts breathed a sigh of relief after President-elect Donald Trump confirmed Wall Street veteran Scott Bessent will be nominated as his Treasury Secretary.
Not only does Bessent—a hedge fund manager by trade—come from the same world as Wall Street and European traders, but he’s also framed Trump’s tariffs plan as a negotiation tool rather than a foregone conclusion.
This will relieve analysts in Europe and Asia who were wondering quite how far the Republican politician would bring his political rhetoric into the real world.
Previously, Trump had said countries like China would face a 60% import tax, while key trading partners in Europe could face a 10% and 20% hike.
Markets widely expected these nations to respond in kind, hiking up their own import rates in retaliation.
But Bessent—who formerly worked for George Soros’s fund management firm—is seen as something of a safer pair of hands with the market rallying in kind.
At the time of writing the UK’s FTSE100 has rallied 0.4% with the S&P500 up by a similar figure.
Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, explained in a note on Monday morning seen by Fortune that markets had reacted positively because “investors prefer orthodoxy, predictability, and coherence from economic policy; there were fears that some of the candidates may not possess those attributes. Bessent does.
“Bessent has said he regards taxing U.S. consumers via trade tariffs as a bargaining tool—essentially the stance in Trump’s first term. Others in the cabinet disagree, but investors will be pleased there is one voice of trade tax moderation.”
Where does Bessent stand on tariffs?
Analysts picked up such signals from Bessent after he made comments comparing tariffs to a loaded gun.
Per a note published earlier this year and seen by The Wall Street Journal, Bessent reportedly wrote that the “tariff gun will always be loaded and on the table but rarely discharged.”
Likewise, in an op-ed for Fox News published earlier this month, Bessent referred to tariffs as a “tool” as opposed to presenting them as a foregone conclusion, writing: “The truth is that tariffs have a long and storied history as both a revenue-raising tool and a way of protecting strategically important industries in the U.S. President-elect Trump has added a third leg to the stool: tariffs as a negotiating tool with our trading partners.”
Posting on Elon Musk-owned social media site X Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, wrote Sunday afternoon: “Consensus is that Euro bounces tonight because Bessent is market friendly. That’s a fade if it happens.
“Trump needs someone who is market savvy to manage adverse market fallout (like in 2018) from tough tariffs. Bessent doesn’t make such tariffs less likely. He’s the fixer…”
Consensus is that Euro bounces tonight because Bessent is market friendly. That’s a fade if it happens. Trump needs someone who is market savvy to manage adverse market fallout (like in 2018) from tough tariffs. Bessent doesn’t make such tariffs less likely. He’s the fixer… pic.twitter.com/eK5jv3cBgM
— Robin Brooks (@robin_j_brooks) November 24, 2024
While the choice buoyed markets, Tesla CEO Elon Musk—and now a trusted member of Trump’s inner circle—has previously said Bessent would be too safe of an option.
“Would be interesting to hear more people weigh in on this for @realDonaldTrump to consider feedback. My view fwiw is that Bessent is a business-as-usual choice, whereas @howardlutnick will actually enact change,” Musk wrote on X on November 16. “Business-as-usual is driving America bankrupt, so we need change one way or another.”
Who is Scott Bessent?
Bessent—per his Fox News column—still serves as CEO of New York-based Key Square Capital Management.
Bessent’s resumé carries many of the hallmarks familiar to the Washington and Wall Street crowd: a Yale alum who reportedly returned to his alma mater to teach economic history.
After graduating, Bessent became a hedge fund manager for Soros before launching his own firm, Key Square.
Per The Wall Street Journal Bessent and his husband John Freeman, a former New York City prosecutor, have two children and have primarily lived in Charleston, South Carolina.
While Bessent may be striking a more cautious tone on tariffs, he is standing firmly with Trump on topics such as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and its chairman, Jerome Powell, and the boost to markets following Trump’s election.
Powell and Trump have been somewhat at loggerheads, with the former continually dismissing claims by politicians that the FOMC is a political entity.
However, following the FOMC’s larger-than-expected cut in September, Bessent said, “If you were concerned about the integrity of the institution, you would not have done it.”
“In reputation, everything is optics. Tell me on what planet is it conceivable that waiting two months is make or break, versus the integrity of the institution,” he told Bloomberg in October.
Bessent has also floated the idea of a “shadow” FOMC chair to begin work and take over after Powell’s term is finished.
The entrepreneur also loudly attributed the market’s strong post-election performance to Trump’s economic proposals.
Writing in The WSJ, Bessent said: “The failure of Bidenomics is clear. But Mr. Trump has turned around the economy before, and he is ready to do so again.”
