Roundtable: Biggest surprises and disappointments in group play

We’re officially nearing the end of group play in the 2024 NBA Cup, and the matchups for the knockout round will become much clearer in the coming days.

The Golden State Warriors have already claimed their spot in the knockouts after dominating West Group C. The Houston Rockets will also be joining them after defeating the Minnesota Timberwolves in overtime on Tuesday in West Group A.

And remember, point differential matters in this tournament, especially for the Los Angeles Lakers, who entered Tuesday with a plus-12 point differential but are now chasing the Phoenix Suns in West Group B after being blown out by the Suns 127-100. LeBron James and the defending in-season tournament champions face a tough road back to even making the knockout round.

After group play concludes on Dec. 3, the quarterfinals will take place on Dec. 10 and 11 as teams battle it out to claim the second in-season tournament trophy ever, not to mention $500,000 for each player.

We asked our NBA insiders to answer some of the biggest questions in this high-stakes tournament, including who the group-play MVP is and what’s been the biggest surprise so far.

Which group has proved to be the toughest so far?

Michael Wright: West Group C. There are three teams that entered the week sitting in the top seven in the Western Conference: the Warriors, Denver Nuggets and Memphis Grizzlies. Not to mention the defending West champion Dallas Mavericks certainly aren’t a slouch. The Grizzlies and New Orleans Pelicans have both been decimated by injuries this season, which is why they’ve struggled in the NBA Cup and the regular season. The Warriors, however, are cruising through the group after becoming the first team to clinch a spot in the NBA Cup knockout round, eliminating New Orleans in the process.

Tim MacMahon: West Group B has lived up to its expectations. Anticipated to be the toughest group, it features three teams coming off playoff appearances (defending in-season tourney champ Lakers, Oklahoma City Thunder and Suns) and the San Antonio Spurs, who are making a massive leap this season after improving the supporting cast around Victor Wembanyama. All four of those teams have one loss in NBA Cup action, so this group’s bid to the knockout stage will go down to the wire.

Dave McMenamin: East Group C. It features the defending champs in the Boston Celtics, the hottest team in the league in the Cleveland Cavaliers, plus the Chicago Bulls and Atlanta Hawks — sub-.500 teams, sure, but not easy wins by any means. Plus, all four of those teams are strong enough to ignore the miserable Washington Wizards, who were eliminated Tuesday night by the Bulls.

Ohm Youngmisuk: East Group C has turned out to be much tougher than originally expected due to Cleveland’s red-hot start. With the defending champion Celtics in the same group, East C has the teams with the two best records in the league. After Tuesday’s slate of games, however, Chicago, Atlanta and Boston were all tied for third, and Friday will clear up which one of these teams makes it closer to the knockout rounds.

Chris Herring: West Group B. Yes, the Utah Jazz are flat-out bad. But the group’s other four clubs — the Thunder, Suns, Lakers and Spurs — all have winning records and would reach the postseason if the campaign ended today. And in the case of the Suns, they might be far better than their record, given that they were one of the hottest teams in the league before Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal suffered calf injuries.

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Which team has made the biggest surprise run?

McMenamin: The Milwaukee Bucks. Milwaukee has been great in group play, going 3-0 — including a win against last season’s East finalist in the Indiana Pacers and a road win in Miami without Giannis Antetokounmpo — and has been pretty pedestrian in all its other games. The Bucks look somewhat reminiscent of last season’s NBA Cup champions, the Lakers.

Youngmisuk: While they’ve played only two NBA Cup games so far, the Detroit Pistons are a surprising 2-0 in the tournament entering Friday’s games. Yes, the Pistons needed a rare gaffe by Erik Spoelstra calling a timeout when he didn’t have one to escape with an overtime win over the Miami Heat. But the fact that the Pistons have a shot at the knockout rounds after winning just 14 games a season ago is impressive.

Herring: It feels unfair to call them the biggest surprise, only because what they’re doing appears so legit. But it’s hard to go against the Rockets. From a statistical standpoint, they’re right on the heels of the Thunder’s historic league-leading defense, which is wildly impressive. They’ve carved out a legit identity through that end of the floor, and they might have additional upside, given how dominant they’ve been when they swap in defensive stud Amen Thompson for scorer Jalen Green.

MacMahon: Ime Udoka might be offended that the Rockets are my choice here. After all, he was adamant on media day that Houston would make the playoffs, so Udoka won’t consider the Rockets’ early NBA Cup success a surprise. But did you think the Rockets would be the most dominant team in group play? Houston, which clinched West Group A with Tuesday’s road overtime win over the Timberwolves, is 3-0 with the best point differential (plus-49) in the league.

Wright: The Lakers won the inaugural NBA Cup last season, so their production this season has been no surprise. The Orlando Magic, New York Knicks and the Rockets have been impressive, too. But Golden State has to be the biggest surprise given the somewhat low expectations for the Warriors entering this season. Plenty of people wondered whether this squad’s time in the sun was finally over. Clearly, it’s not. What’s been fun to watch is this team’s by-committee approach. One night it’s Stephen Curry leading the charge, the next it’s Buddy Hield or Andrew Wiggins. Golden State’s defense, ranked fourth in the league, is a big reason it was the first team to punch its ticket to the knockout rounds.

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What is your championship matchup — and who will win?

Youngmisuk: How about a rematch of the 2022 NBA Finals? The Celtics and Warriors meeting in Vegas would not only be fun but would have a tinge of drama. Besides getting a superstar matchup of Steph versus Tatum, there’s also Tatum against Steve Kerr. The first meeting between the two on Nov. 6 finished with the Warriors winning in Boston to the sound of the local crowd’s boos. While Golden State has struggled a little of late, Curry is not going to come away from Vegas empty-handed if he has gotten this far.

Herring: I could see the Suns and Bucks making a run to give us a (very different-looking) rematch from the 2021 NBA Finals. Both teams have experienced rough patches early on this season but seem eager to show that they’re worthy of being seen as contenders. Who wouldn’t want to see KD and Devin Booker square off with Giannis and Damian Lillard with hardware on the line?

Wright: There won’t be any shortage of star power if the Lakers face off against the Celtics with LeBron James and Anthony Davis taking on defending champions Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The only concern from this vantage point is the question of whether the teams will expend so much energy to win the NBA Cup that it affects their performance later in the season in the quest to capture an arguably more important Larry O’Brien Trophy.

MacMahon: How about a rematch of last season’s NBA Finals with the Celtics beating the Mavericks again? The Celtics reminded us that they’re the best team in the league again after recently ending the Cavaliers’ 15-0 start. The Mavs have sputtered a bit early in the season, but Dallas is in pole position to get the West’s wild card bid. Luka Doncic hasn’t played up to his MVP-candidate standards yet this season, but the odds appear that will change soon.

McMenamin: We could get a coast-to-coast matchup with the Knicks taking on the Warriors in the NBA Cup final. The Warriors have already claimed a spot in the knockout round, and the Knicks are tied with the Magic (2-0) in East Group A with a matchup between these two teams coming next Tuesday in the last week of group play.

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Which team with at least two losses has been the most disappointing?

MacMahon: The Timberwolves failed to take advantage of what seemed to be a favorable group, opening NBA Cup play with an ugly road loss to the rebuilding Portland Trail Blazers and having any realistic hope of advancing halted with an overtime loss to the Rockets at home. The league certainly wouldn’t have minded having ascending superstar Anthony Edwards to be part of the Las Vegas festivities, but the Wolves weren’t up to the task. Minnesota has been one of the biggest disappointments in the first quarter of the regular season, as well, losing seven of its past nine games to dip under .500.

Herring: It’s too soon in the NBA Cup’s life cycle to know whether we should expect any sort of year-to-year carryover from teams in terms of performance. Still, it would’ve been fair to expect more of the Pacers, who have lost their first two NBA Cup games by double digits after making it to last season’s final. Even if you throw out their electric play during last season’s tournament, they were also coming off a trip to the Eastern Conference finals.

McMenamin: The Timberwolves. The Wolves beat the Trail Blazers by 25 on Nov. 8 in a regular-season game, but when it came to playing the Blazers in their group-play opener Nov. 12, they lost by a disappointing 14 points. Not to mention their overtime loss to the Rockets on Tuesday, a blow to their West Group A standings. In both the regular season and in-season tournament, they haven’t come close to recapturing the magic from their Western Conference finals run yet this season.

Wright: The Nuggets. NBA Cup losses to the depleted Pelicans and Luka Doncic-less Mavericks only bolster coach Michael Malone’s recent harsh words for his team. Malone called out his squad Monday after it gave up 145 points in a non-Cup loss to the Knicks at Ball Arena. The surprising part of Malone’s criticism was that he called for more vocal leadership. Let’s not forget Denver captured an NBA title in 2023 and the core of the team remains. So, Malone shouldn’t feel the need to challenge vets such as three-time MVP Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray (in his eighth season).

Youngmisuk: There are several candidates for this, but Minnesota should be better. Yes, the Wolves are still getting adjusted to the Karl-Anthony Towns–Julius Randle trade, but losing to a rebuilding Portland by 14 is disappointing for a team that has playoff aspirations. For a team that was one step away from reaching the NBA Finals last postseason, the Wolves should be in a much better spot this early in the season.

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Who is your group-play MVP?

Wright: The Sacramento Kings’ De’Aaron Fox was on fire in his first two games of group play, averaging 44.5 points, 7 assists and 2 steals while shooting 58.2% from the floor and 41.2% from deep. But those contests ended in losses for a Kings team still looking for its first Cup victory and sitting at the bottom of West Group A. However, Bucks lead guard Damian Lillard’s performance against the Heat on Tuesday without Giannis Antetokounmpo sealed the deal for him to take group-play MVP. He has averaged 30.5 points and 12.5 assists, shooting 52.4% from deep on high volume (10.5 attempts per game).

MacMahon: The Magic are only halfway done with group play, but Franz Wagner is putting together a pretty strong case for this mythical MVP award. Wagner averaged 31.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 2.5 steals during Orlando’s two NBA Cup wins. It’s part of what’s been an All-Star-caliber campaign for the 22-year-old Wagner, who is averaging career highs in scoring (23.4), rebounds (5.5), assists (5.6) and steals (1.8), keying the Magic’s success while Paolo Banchero recovers from his oblique injury.

McMenamin: Dillon Brooks. The Rockets are 3-0 with the best point differential out of any team (plus-49) and Brooks has been spectacular so far. He averaged 23.3 points in group play on 58.5% shooting (62.5% from 3) and 3.3 rebounds per game — more than 10 points above his season average — while his defensive prowess has helped Houston to the No. 2 defensive rating in the league.

Youngmisuk: Anthony Davis is off to an incredible start. In the NBA Cup, the Lakers big man is averaging 30.3 points, 13.7 rebounds, 4.3 assists, 2.0 blocks and 1.3 steals. While the Lakers dropped a disappointing game to the Suns by 27, AD still had 25 points, 15 rebounds and 4 blocks. He will be a tough matchup for anyone if Los Angeles makes it back to Vegas.

Herring: Poor De’Aaron Fox, who’s averaging almost 45 points and seven assists, and won’t even sniff the award, given his team’s 0-2 start in group play. But how about Orlando’s Franz Wagner? With Paulo Banchero out, he has had an All-Star-caliber campaign, which includes averages of 31.5 points, 9.5 boards and 5.5 assists in 50% shooting in NBA Cup play so far.