Stacking the top 10 rookies: Bowers vs. Daniels vs. Verse for the top spot
The rookies in the 2024 NFL draft class have put together an exciting campaign heading into the final four weeks of the regular season.
Broncos quarterback Bo Nix used a strong November to push himself into the Rookie of the Year conversation, while Bears signal-caller Caleb Williams hasn’t thrown an interception in seven straight games. Two former LSU wide receivers are carrying their teams’ offenses, and two first-year cornerbacks are helping anchor the Eagles defense. But how do the top first-year players stack up against each other? Which are having the best seasons?
We polled four NFL analysts and reporters — Matt Bowen, Jeff Legwold, Matt Miller and Jordan Reid — to form a consensus ranking of the top 10 rookies through Week 14. Where is Nix on the list after just missing our Week 10 ranking? Which two players are tied for the final spot in the rankings? Our experts also discuss which rookie could make the biggest impact in the playoffs and who is primed for a breakout next season.
Let’s begin with Raiders tight end Brock Bowers, who has taken over for Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels as the unanimous top selection.
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Big questions
Stats: 87 receptions, 933 yards, 4 TDs
Drafted: No. 13
Ranking after Week 10: No. 2
Bowers has already set a new record for receptions in a season by a rookie tight end, passing Sam LaPorta‘s mark of 86, which was set last season. Now, Bowers has his sights on a rookie record that has stood for more than six decades: Hall of Famer Mike Ditka’s 1,076 receiving yards in 1961. It’s doable, as Bowers has four games left and has been targeted on a quarter of the routes he has run this season.
There are some evaluators in the league who say he isn’t just the best rookie tight end, but perhaps the best overall tight end in the league. He has the fifth-most receiving yards out of every pass-catcher. — Legwold
Stats: 2,819 passing yards, 15 TDs, 6 INTs; 590 rushing yards, 6 TDs
Drafted: No. 2
Ranking after Week 10: No. 1
Daniels was the early favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year after a red-hot start and was regarded as a potential MVP sleeper. He had a rough stretch in November, including three straight losses in which he recorded QBRs of 36.5, 22.2 and 64.1, respectively. He rebounded with a four-touchdown performance against the Titans in Week 14.
Daniels is the perfect fit in coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s offense, as he ranks fourth in the league in completion percentage (69.6%), sixth in QBR (68.4) and ninth in yards per attempt (7.8). With three of his final four matchups against the Saints, Falcons and Cowboys, he has a chance to finish the season strong and make his claim to be the top rookie. — Reid
Stats: 56 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles
Drafted: No. 19
Ranking after Week 10: No. 3
Verse is a natural disruptor with the physical tools to produce as a three-down defender. He is playing at Pro Bowl level and already has 39 QB pressures, the 10th-most in the league.
He is also more than willing to set an edge in the run game, with a run stop win rate of 31% and 11 tackles for loss. The arrow is pointing up for Verse and fellow rookie Rams defender Braden Fiske, who has six sacks and two forced fumbles. — Bowen
Stats: 2,842 passing yards, 17 TDs, 8 INTs; 304 rushing yards, 4 TDs
Drafted: No. 12
Ranking after Week 10: Just missed
Nix has been incredibly solid, efficient and is improving weekly as the Broncos fight for a playoff berth (74% chance, per ESPN’s Football Power Index). He has shown an ability to push the ball deep — like his 93-yard pass to Marvin Mims Jr. against the Browns — while still being on-time and accurate on intermediate passes.
The good news for the Broncos is that Nix is more comfortable with the scheme and his teammates, putting together a career-high 84.8% completion percentage and four touchdowns in a Week 11 win over Atlanta. They haven’t lost since then, and Nix should produce more multi-touchdown games in the final month. — Miller
Stats: 40 tackles, 10 passes defended, 10 pass breakups
Drafted: No. 22
Ranking after Week 10: No. 7
Mitchell has flourished in Vic Fangio’s system, as he hasn’t surrendered a touchdown in coverage this season and should be in the conversation for Defensive Rookie of the Year. The Eagles have been willing to match him on some of their opponents’ most notable receivers, and he hasn’t relished from the challenge.
He has played 97% of the defensive snaps, similar to how Fangio used Pat Surtain II in the cornerback’s rookie season in Denver in 2021. Mitchell is tied for fourth in the league in pass breakups on the league’s No. 1 overall defense. — Legwold
Stats: 80 receptions, 819 receiving yards, 3 TDs
Drafted: No. 6
Ranking after Week 10: No. 4
Nabers is the Giants’ No. 1 option on offense and has been one of the league’s best rookie receivers. He ranks eighth in receiving yards per game (74.5) and still has the highest possible open score (99), per ESPN Analytics, which puts him at the top of the NFL in that metric.
Coach Brian Daboll has used Nabers in the slot as well. His ability to run after is the catch has made an impact, as defenders struggle to bring him to the ground. Despite his youth — Nabers turned 21 in July — he has established himself as the Giants’ clear go-to target. — Reid
2:46
Stephen A.: Malik Nabers looks like he wants to leave the Giants
Stephen A. Smith reacts to Malik Nabers calling the Giants’ effort “soft” after their loss to the Buccaneers.
Stats: 11 starts, 93.2% pass block win rate, 73.5% run block win rate
Drafted: No. 51
Ranking after Week 10: No. 6
Frazier’s run block win rate ranks fourth among centers who have played at least 300 snaps. With a powerful lower half, he can drive defenders off the ball, and he plays with a tone-setting demeanor. That fits in Pittsburgh, where the run game is the foundation of the offense.
The Steelers have 438 rushing attempts this season, the second-most in the league, and Frazier’s presence has helped set the identity of their front. — Bowen
Stats: 12 starts, 93.5% pass block win rate, 77.8% run block win rate
Drafted: No. 5
Ranking after Week 10: No. 10
The Chargers’ playoff contender status — 90% odds at the playoffs, per ESPN’s FPI — is in large part thanks to Alt’s ability to protect quarterback Justin Herbert and aid the passing attack. Alt is poised, tough and has been exactly what Jim Harbaugh needed to keep Herbert healthy and in a clean jersey. His pass block win rate ranks sixth among all starting tackles.
Alt has a profile similar to Lions All-Pro tackle Penei Sewell. He should be a lock for All-Rookie honors and has an All-Pro future. — Miller
Stats: 45 receptions, 655 receiving yards, 7 TDs
Drafted: No. 4
Ranking after Week 10: No. 5
Few could have predicted Harrison would be 35 receptions behind Arizona tight end Trey McBride or that he would have six games with three or fewer receptions at this point in the season. He has shown flashes of how good he can be, however, if the Cardinals can find a better rhythm between him and quarterback Kyler Murray.
Harrison is tied for the sixth-most touchdowns in the league but only has receptions on 53.6% of his targets, which shows there is still something missing in his chemistry with Murray. He ranks eighth in average air yards per target (13.5). — Legwold
Stats: 54 receptions, 851 receiving yards, 6 TDs
Drafted: No. 23
Ranking after Week 10: No. 8
Even though the Jaguars’ offense has had a frustrating season, Thomas has been one of its bright spots. Averaging 15.8 yards per reception (10th-best in the NFL), he has remained a consistent downfield option despite Jacksonville’s quarterback issues. He can make plays after the catch too, with the 12th-best YAC score, per ESPN Analytics.
Despite being the fourth wide receiver drafted in April, Thomas has an argument to be considered the most impressive of the bunch this season. — Reid
Stats: 40 tackles, 5 passes defended, 5 pass breakups, 0.5 sacks, 1 fumble recovery
Drafted: No. 40
Ranking after Week 10: Just missed
DeJean has elevated the Philadelphia defense since he took over as the starting slot corner in Week 6. He is a well-schooled zone defender who can get to his depth in the scheme and use his short-area speed to close on the ball.
With his man-coverage skills and play strength, DeJean also gives the Eagles a powerful matchup inside the numbers. He has filled up the stat sheet and helped in the run game, leading to three tackles for loss and a highlight tackle against the Ravens’ Derrick Henry. — Bowen
Just missed
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Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers: 45 receptions, 655 receiving yards, 7 TDs
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Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears: 2,746 passing yards, 16 TDs, 5 INTs; 63 rushing yards, 0 TDs
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Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 735 rushing yards, 300 receiving yards, 6 total TDs
Also received top-15 votes from our panelists: Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots; Braden Fiske, DT, Los Angeles Rams; Dominick Puni, OG, San Francisco 49ers; Dru Phillips, CB, New York Giants
Which rookie could make the biggest impact in the playoffs?
Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs. Worthy’s explosive-play upside has the ability to change the outcome of a game. While he hasn’t produced high-level numbers — 38 receptions and four touchdowns — his vertical speed is a threat to opposing secondaries, creating third-level throws for Patrick Mahome and opening up the passing game.
Plus, coach Andy Reid can scheme for Worthy on manufactured touches (fly sweeps, screens, backfield alignments), which has helped Worthy to two rushing touchdowns this season. — Bowen
2:14
Rex Ryan: Chiefs are more vulnerable than ever
Rex Ryan praises Patrick Mahomes for his late-game heroics, but questions this team’s chances in the playoffs after winning all of these close games.
Who will break out in their sophomore season?
Max Melton, CB, Arizona Cardinals. The second-round pick has started just one game but been a high-end special teams player, especially with his speed as a gunner on punt coverage. A four-game stretch from Weeks 6 through 9 was a glimpse into his upside. He played at least 66% of the defensive snaps in each of those games and at least 97% in two of them, including in Week 8 against Miami in his only start of the season. Melton knocked down two passes, had a tackle for loss and two eight-tackle games in the four-game stretch.
Melton might be one of the Cardinals’ best special teams players right now, but perhaps they shouldn’t get used to it, as he’s set to play more defensive snaps next season. — Legwold
Which first-rounder is underperforming?
Dallas Turner, LB, Minnesota Vikings. Once again, the answer here is Turner. The No. 17 overall pick has just one sack on the season, and that came in Week 1.
Turner has played just 192 snaps all season and has three quarterback hits. The Vikings needed pass-rush help when trading up to select Turner, but they have managed the fourth-most sacks in the league (40) without a major contribution from him. — Miller
Which late-rounder is overperforming?
Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A part of a deep backfield that includes Rachaad White and Sean Tucker, the fourth-round pick has been the best of the bunch. Irving has not only stood out as a runner, but he is equally as impressive as a receiver. He has 735 rushing yards and 300 receiving yards with six rushing scores.
His best performance of the season came in a Week 13 victory over the Panthers, when he rushed for 152 yards and added another 33 receiving yards. He is averaging 5.4 yards per carry, which is fourth-best in the league among qualifying running backs. — Reid
