Final four: Stars, X factors and predictions
It wasn’t always an easy path, but all four No. 1 seeds advanced to the NCAA women’s volleyball tournament final four in Louisville.
No. 1 overall seed Pittsburgh was pushed to five sets by Oregon in the regional semifinals. Louisville was down match points but pulled off a five-set win against Northern Iowa in the second round. Penn State dropped four sets along the way, including two against Creighton in the regional final. Nebraska dropped its lone set against Dayton in a regional semifinal.
Now, conference rivals will clash with a spot in the national championship game on the line. First up Thursday is an ACC showdown between Pittsburgh and Louisville at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. That’s followed by Big Ten powerhouses Nebraska and Penn State on ESPN. The winners will play Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on ABC.
Penn State has seven national championship in women’s volleyball. Nebraska, runner-up a year ago, is a five-time champion. Pittsburgh and Louisville are seeking their first.
ESPN’s Katie George, Holly McPeak, Sam Gore, Paul Sunderland, Courtney Lyle, Michael Voepel and Aishwarya Kumar highlight the players to watch, the keys to the matchups, the X factors and then make their predictions.
Cast the spotlight on one player fans need to watch.
Kumar: There’s a reason we can’t stop talking about Pittsburgh outside hitter Olivia Babcock. She’s fiery and flashy with her jump serve and her pin hitting. Babcock dominated in the Panthers’ sweep against 2020 national champion Kentucky in its regional final, posting a team-high 13 kills. Let’s not forget, that performance came on the heels of her career-high 31 kills against Oregon in a thrilling five-set regional semifinal. Her extraordinary serve hit a bit of a snag in the regionals, yet she was still selected the Pittsburgh regional’s most outstanding player. And what’s mind-boggling about all of this? She’s a sophomore.
McPeak: Babcock is the easy answer because she can dominate a match, but I also like what Harper Murray is doing — everything! — for Nebraska. She passes, blocks, digs and leads the team in kills. Murray is dynamic, confident and on a mission.
George: I love watching Penn State outside hitter Jess Mruzik. She can attack, block, defend and serve, but I love watching her swing. She can hit absurd angles crosscourt. Her 4-to-4 swing is nasty — meaning she can hit the ball from her attacking position in left front (zone 4) so sharp that she’s able to light up the opposing left front attacker who’s defending their side of the net’s zone 4. You have to have mega hops, torque, power and hand contact to be able to hit that shot.
Gore: Babcock is a made-for-TV volleyball player. She’s a potential highlight at the start of — or during — any rally. When she’s playing her best, she’s at another level, and she can take over a match. With the potential of a dynamic kill either at the net or out of the back row, or firing an ace behind her massive topspin jump serve, she’s the player who immediately captures your attention.
Lyle: Yes, the pin hitters get a lot of love (and rightfully so), but how about those “littles?” Last weekend, Lexi Rodriguez of Nebraska was a walking (or diving) highlight reel. I love to watch the game-changing plays she makes effortlessly. She’s also a finalist for national player of the year.
Voepel: Murray has been flying all over the court for Nebraska, playing well both offensively and defensively. But we’ll also give a shout-out to Louisville outside hitter Anna DeBeer, who was the most outstanding player of her regional, totaling 30 kills in those two matches.
Which team has looked the most unstoppable through its first four tournament games?
George: Louisville, Pitt and Penn State have all been pushed to five. Though Nebraska did not look extremely sharp in a four-set win over Dayton in its regional semifinal, the Cornhuskers have looked the part. Nebraska’s sweep of Wisconsin in its regional final was dominant. No notes. It was a spectacular performance both offensively and defensively. We will see if that form continues against another Big Ten opponent.
McPeak: Nebraska looked very strong against Wisconsin. Its offense was firing, but defense was what made the Cornhuskers so impressive in its regional final sweep. They are also the only top seed that hasn’t been pushed to a fifth set.
Gore: Nebraska is the only top seed so far that hasn’t faced a legitimate threat in its matches, and that’s because the Cornhuskers are playing so well right now. There’s meaning behind the saying, “Defense wins championships.” Through four matches in the NCAA tournament, they are holding opponents to an astounding .066 hitting percentage. If teams can’t put the ball down on them or serve them off the court, Nebraska’s defense could win it the national championship.
Kumar: This is a toss-up between Pittsburgh and Nebraska, but I’m going with Nebraska. Three out of its four tournament wins came in sweeps. Why? Because its defense is impenetrable. “Some of the defensive plays that those guys were making … just nobody in the country is making those in the backcourt,” Wisconsin coach Kelly Sheffield said after the regional final. Nebraska runs down every ball — even if it means going into the crowd. In the match against Wisconsin, Nebraska dug 59 balls and held the Badgers to a .126 hitting percentage.
Sunderland: Nebraska has looked the most unstoppable. Its defense is dogged. No ball goes down without a fight. With the deployment of its “littles” and the fine play of Murray in reception, the Cornhuskers are a solid side-out team.
Lyle: It’s Nebraska, but it can’t afford to have another performance like the one against Dayton. Yes, the Cornhuskers won in four sets (they had match point in the third set), but they looked flat. The players mentioned how late the start was and admitted it affected them. The Huskers play in the second semifinal Thursday, and they can’t come out flat against Penn State.
Voepel: This one is unanimous. Nebraska looks ready to win championship No. 6, and the Huskers have so many weapons to do it.
Pitt went 2-0 against Louisville and Penn State went 1-0 against Nebraska this season. Should fans expect more of the same?
Voepel: It might sound funny to say Louisville is playing with house money, but the pressure to make the final four in their hometown is over. The Cardinals made it. They also know that despite being at home, they are the fourth No. 1 seed and an underdog to Pitt. All of that — and a raucous home crowd at the KFC Yum! Center — could swing the pressure to the Panthers and make this semifinal a potential upset. I also think it could help that Louisville plays the first match Thursday; the crowd will be buzzing from first serve. The Cardinals lost 3-2 in their first meeting with the Panthers, Oct. 25 at Pitt. They lost 3-1 in the second meeting, Nov. 27 at Louisville. The third time could be the charm, although that would be heartbreaking for a Pitt program that has lost in the semifinals the past three years. As for the second match, I think we’ve established Nebraska is coming in like a speeding locomotive. Admittedly, volleyball at times can be unpredictable with its momentum shifts, but it’s hard to pick against the Huskers in this matchup.
Sunderland: No! Pittsburgh is too sound and too physical for Louisville, but on the other side, I expect Nebraska to advance over Penn State. Mruzik and Camryn Hannah will be challenged to score and that will be the difference in favor of the Cornhuskers.
Gore: Those were regular-season matches, and though they play a factor, the national semifinals bring in a whole other set of intangibles apart from how teams match up. Who handles the moment better? Who executes under the pressure of winning a national championship and knowing your season is over if you lose? Those mental hurdles are magnified and have to be cleared.
McPeak: Good news for Louisville. The Cardinals are playing their best volleyball of the season. Louisville will need to be at its best to challenge a very physical Pitt team that is relentless on defense and in hitter coverage. I am expecting a barn burner. Penn State is very talented, and I love the way its setter, true freshman Izzy Starck, runs the offense. Not sure if the Nittany Lions have enough offensive balance to beat Nebraska again, but they do have plenty of firepower. Mruzik is an elite player who steps up in big moments.
George: Anything can happen at this stage. What helps both Pitt and Nebraska is they played in national semifinals a year ago with their core group of players being much the same. That experience gained by young players such as Stafford and Babcock (Pitt) or Murray and Bergen Reilly (Nebraska) is invaluable.
Lyle: I think tournament time is totally different. I’m really interested to see how Louisville is affected by playing in a national semifinal at home. I think that really helped it avoid being upset by Northern Iowa in the second round.
Who or what is the X factor in Pitt-Louisville?
Sunderland: Bre Kelley. I really appreciate Pitt in the reception phase with Torrey Stafford and Emmy Klika. That will give Kelley first-ball side-out opportunities out of the middle, leading to stress-free points.
George: Louisville’s 6-2 offense. Dani Busboom Kelly said before the first match of the season that the 6-2 offense gives the Cardinals the best chance to make it to the national semifinals. So far so good. A 6-2 utilizes three hitters in the front row at all times, while two setters run the offense from the back row at different times. It’s why the Cards are the best blocking team in the country. They always have three big, capable blockers in the front row. Can they slow down Pitt’s many arms? If Louisville’s block can get touches on Babcock and not let her go off, it would certainly be helpful.
Voepel: Echoing Katie on the Louisville block being a potentially huge factor in this match. If the Cardinals can establish it, get the crowd going and force the Panthers to start second-guessing their swings or going for too much, that could swing the match to the Cardinals. Admittedly, that is all very hard to do to Pitt.
Gore: The mental edge. Pitt has had the mantra of wanting to be the hunter this season after falling short of the national championship match the past three years. This stage has been its roadblock for three years in a row. Now is the moment of truth. Learn from the past and accomplish the goal, or reset for another attempt next season. Louisville is playing at home. Does that become something it can be fueled by, or does it become a burden?
Kumar: Their rivalry. There are all these emotions around playing each other for these two ACC elites. I was in Pittsburgh in late October when Pitt was about to take on Louisville in the teams’ first regular-season meeting, and you could feel it in the air. Coach Dan Fisher talked about spending the week studying tape, getting ready for a massive challenge. The teams share a rich history: This is the third straight year they’ll play each other in the NCAA tournament. In the 2022 national semifinal in Omaha, the Cardinals won a five-setter. Pittsburgh responded with a reverse sweep in the regional final last year. I have the Panthers winning this one, but the fact that Louisville is playing at home is a big advantage.
Lyle: These two know each other so well. It’s going to come down to who can execute and make the fewest mistakes. Neither can afford to give away points.
Who or what is the X factor in Penn State-Nebraska?
Kumar: Nebraska outside hitter Taylor Landfair. A 6-foot-5 senior transfer from Minnesota, Landfair had maybe the best match of her Cornhuskers career when it mattered most against No. 2 seed Wisconsin in the regional final, scoring a team-high 13 kills (tying her season high). She could very well be the spark for Nebraska against Mruzik and Penn State.
Gore: Again, it’s which team handles the mental moment better. Like Pitt, Nebraska has been fueled by unfinished business from last season. This is a chance for redemption. Will the Huskers be driven enough by last year’s loss? Penn State already knows it has the ability to beat Nebraska. Do the Nittany Lions believe they can win again? Also, history is full of teams getting extra motivation from a sick or injured loved one. All any Penn State player has to do is look at their coach, Katie Schumacher-Cawley, who’s in the midst of chemotherapy treatments. She is a living inspiration. That gives every Penn State player instant courage, fight and fearlessness to get through any adversity on the court.
George: I think the right side/opposite attackers will be the X factor in this match. Merritt Beason’s attacking numbers have been down in the NCAA tournament. Can she return to form? Caroline Jurevicius has been a steady performer for Penn State. Which opposite can provide more production Thursday will be a match within the match to keep an eye on.
McPeak: Defense. Whichever team wins will have to be serving tough and playing high-level defense. Offense scores points and helps win sets, but defense wins championships. With that being said, passing is the most important foundation for a good offense and that will be another key.
Lyle: I agree with Holly — defense. Nebraska’s defense was a huge factor in its sweep of Wisconsin in the regional final.
Voepel: Sounds simple, but overall Nebraska just has more depth and talent, and has been playing very confidently.
Pitt wins the national title if…
Kumar: When I asked Fisher this question in November, he said, “Pitt wins the national championship when we are the team that cares about each other the most, stays in the moment and stays in a hunter mindset for the most amount of time.”
Sunderland: The moment doesn’t become too big and they ride Babcock. There is no tomorrow, so 15 attacks per set is not too many.
Voepel: The Panthers play the dominating, physical style they are capable of. There are many championship teams that have been able to ride one powerful hitter who can’t be stopped no matter how you strategize for her. As Paul said, Babcock has that kind of talent.
Nebraska wins the national title if …
Kumar: Its defense is as spectacular as it has been so far this season.
Sunderland: It continues to defend at an unparalleled level. This phase by the Cornhuskers continues to put so much pressure on the opponent. One last thought: Beason has to be effective offensively, especially out of the back row, where she has not been so far in the tournament.
Voepel: The Cornhuskers play the way they did in the regional final against Wisconsin, especially in the second set. The Badgers tried everything to disrupt the Huskers, but they couldn’t.
Louisville wins the national title if …
Voepel: This would be quite an ending for multiple reasons: The hometown team winning, the ACC getting its first NCAA volleyball championship, and Busboom Kelly becoming the first woman to win the title as head coach. The odds are stacked against the Cardinals winning two matches, but if they can get past Pitt, their confidence would be soaring for the final.
Sunderland: As much as I respect and admire Louisville and what it has done this season, the semifinals is the end of the line unless Pitt has an off night. Being at home gives Louisville a leg up but not enough.
Kumar: DeBeer, Sofia Maldonado Diaz and Charitie Luper helped Louisville outkill Pitt 70-68 in their five-set loss in October. It’s a tall task, but if the Cardinals can duplicate or even widen that margin on Thursday, they could advance.
Penn State wins the national title if …
Sunderland: Similar to my thoughts on Louisville, Penn State does not have enough to advance against the balance of Nebraska. Of course, upsets are possible, but I don’t see it here. A magnificent run for Katie Schumacher-Cawley and the Nittany Lions ends here.
Voepel: The Nittany Lions already have beaten Nebraska this season, so they know they’re capable of it. We saw a lot of resolve from Penn State in fighting off Creighton, so if the Nittany Lions make the final, they could push their momentum all the way to an eighth championship for the program. And in that case, Schumacher-Cawley would be the first woman to coach a team to the D-I volleyball championship.
Kumar: Penn State had more kills, more aces, more assists and more digs than Nebraska in their November match. If they can repeat that recipe, they’ll advance.
Who advances to Sunday’s final?
Kumar: Pittsburgh and Nebraska.
Sunderland: Nebraska-Pitt in the finals. This story was written some time ago and will play out Sunday.
Voepel: Much of this season has been pointing toward a Pitt-Nebraska final. I think that’s what we’re going to get.
Who wins the national championship?
McPeak: From what I have seen this season, anything can happen. What team will rise to the occasion? We have four elite teams with so much talent. Pitt and Nebraska were two of the strongest teams all season and might be on a collision course. It would be a fun one to watch and I am ready for this incredible story to unfold.
Kumar: Nebraska in five purely because the Huskers have been there before, they know what it takes and they’re hungry after last year’s loss to Texas.
Sunderland: Close call for certain, but I give Nebraska the slight edge. Advantage to the Cornhuskers in reception and the play of the “littles” creating more point-scoring opportunities. Nebraska wins number six. Mic drop.
Voepel: The Huskers have lost three times in the championship match since they won their fifth title in 2017. They fell in five sets to Stanford in 2018 and Wisconsin in 2021, and were swept by Texas last year. If Nebraska gets another chance to play for the championship, I don’t think it will let this one get away.
