Montana State's quest for perfection and a Dakota Marker

Heading into the 2024 FCS playoffs, the top four teams in the country were pretty clear. Not including games against FBS opponents or each other, Montana State, North Dakota State, South Dakota State and South Dakota all went unbeaten this season. They’ve all dealt with various downs and (mostly) ups in form, but they were all heavily favored to become semifinalists, and they have all done exactly that.

With all the fat trimmed, however, we now get to the meat. Only two of these four teams will play for the national title in January. It’s time to eliminate a couple.

The semifinals offer us a Dakota Marker rematch to start — it’s the sixth time in 13 years that North Dakota State and South Dakota State have met in the playoffs — followed by a matchup between the subdivision’s only unbeaten team (Montana State) and, in South Dakota, the closest thing to an upstart. Weather probably won’t be an issue, as NDSU plays in a dome and temperatures will be in the 40s (disappointingly) in Bozeman. But we should be in for a treat.

Updated projections

When the playoffs started, these teams already had a combined 86.5% chance of winning the title, per SP+, with the other 20 teams combining for just 13.5%. So of the remaining semifinalists, no one’s odds have changed significantly.

South Dakota State’s odds have improved the most, mainly because it seems the Jackrabbits themselves have improved the most in recent weeks. They’ve overachieved against SP+ projections by an average of 13.9 points over the last five games.

After losing so many big-time pieces from an all-time great 2023 team, it took Jimmy Rogers’ SDSU squad a little while to find fifth gear, but if last week’s 55-14 romp over Incarnate Word is any indication, they’ve found it. Each of these four semifinalists is in good form at the moment, but SDSU and MSU have been exceeding projections the most of late.

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Last week

Our four semifinalists won their quarterfinal games by an average of 43-15. In fact, they led by double digits for a combined 136.2 of their games’ 240 minutes. Only South Dakota found itself with any sort of second-half anxiety, and that was against the fifth-best team in FCS, UC Davis.

Montana State was tied 10-10 late in the second quarter of a Friday night rematch with Idaho. But the Bobcats quickly found their knockout punch with a 28-0 run over about nine minutes and cruised 52-19. Quarterback Tommy Mellott threw 18 passes for 174 yards, rushed 14 times for 131 yards and produced three combined touchdowns. Adam Jones, meanwhile, did the dirty work between the tackles, rushing 23 times for 95 yards and four scores. The MSU defense got hit for 407 yards by a strong Idaho offense, but three sacks and two takeaways helped turn the game into a blowout.

SDSU landed the knockout blow even faster. Two 35-yard Mark Gronowski-to-Griffin Wilde touchdown passes put the Jackrabbits up 14-0 early in the second quarter, and Incarnate Word never got closer. A 59-yard Gronowski pass to David Alpers made it 38-0 early in the second half before UIW finally got on the board. The Jacks sacked Zach Calzada three times and picked him off once, and the trio of Amar Johnson, Kirby Vorhees and Chase Mason rushed 29 times for 235 yards.

Both NDSU and South Dakota had to work a bit longer against Mercer and UC Davis, respectively. Cam Miller and Bryce Lance connected for a pair of touchdown passes to put NDSU up 14-0 after just five minutes, but the Bison led by only 17 until a late Barika Kpeenu touchdown made the final score 31-7. South Dakota, meanwhile, led most of the way but held just a 28-21 advantage midway through the fourth quarter before putting away a 35-21 win with a seven-play, 75-yard TD drive.

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Offensive SP+ rankings: NDSU second, SDSU third

First-team all-conference selections (offense): SDSU — RB Amar Johnson (5-foot-10, 200 lbs., Sr.), RG Evan Beerntsen (6-foot-4, 300 lbs., Sr.), C Gus Miller (6-foot-3, 295 lbs., Sr.), APB Angel Johnson (5-foot-9, 195 lbs., Jr.); NDSU — QB Cam Miller (6-foot-1, 212 lbs., Sr., MVFC offensive player of the year), WR Bryce Lance (6-foot-3, 204 lbs., Jr.), RT Mason Miller (6-foot-7, 305 lbs., Sr.), LT Grey Zabel (6-foot-6, 305 lbs., Sr.)

Defensive SP+ rankings: SDSU first, NDSU sixth

First-team all-conference selections (defense): SDSU — DT Jarod DePriest (6-foot-5, 285 lbs., Sr.), LB Adam Bock (6-foot-1, 225 lbs., Sr.), LB/NB Caleb Francl (6-foot-1, 195 lbs., Sr), CB Dalys Beanum (6-foot-1, 200 lbs., Sr.), FS Tucker Large (5-foot-11, 185 lbs., Jr.); NDSU — DT Eli Mostaert (6-foot-3, 289 lbs., Sr.), LB Logan Kopp (6-foot-1, 220 lbs., Jr.)

North Dakota State went almost five calendar years without beating its Dakota Marker rival. The Bison lost five in a row to the Jacks, including a 45-21 pummeling in 2022’s national title game, but they finally pulled one back with a 13-9 win Oct. 19. Cam Miller and RaJa Nelson connected for touchdown passes of 18 and 20 yards, the second of which came with just 1:49 remaining in regulation. SDSU had slight advantages in terms of yardage (333-275) and yards per play (5.0-4.7), but four trips inside NDSU’s 40 produced just one touchdown, and a late Logan Kopp interception sealed the Bison win.

It was a nice affirmation game for NDSU, and the Bison continued to show plenty of upside in their six games since. They’ve scored at least 28 points in all six of those games (and at least 42 four times), and they’ve held opponents to 21 or fewer four times. There have been hints of vulnerability of late, though. They fell 29-28 at South Dakota to finish the regular season — no shame there, obviously — and allowed 31 points in a second-round win over Abilene Christian. They were never in danger against Mercer, but they suffered enough negative plays that they couldn’t fully push the game into garbage-time mode for a while either.

None of this would be much of a concern — oh no, they’ve only won playoff games by 20 and 24 points! — if the Bison weren’t about to play an absolute juggernaut. After the loss to NDSU, SDSU gutted out an overtime win over South Dakota, then hit the accelerator. They’ve won their last six games by an average of 44-11, with Gronowski completing 59% of his passes at 17.7 yards per completion with 11 touchdowns and only one interception. Meanwhile, Amar Johnson has averaged 7.5 yards per carry with six TDs in this span while receiver Griffin Wilde has caught 22 passes for 521 yards and 6 scores. No. 2 RB Angel Johnson, one of FCS’ better kickoff returners, missed last week with injury, and the Jacks didn’t miss a beat. They got a tougher playoff draw than NDSU but still beat Montana and UIW by a combined 90-32.

Against NDSU the first time, Amar and Angel Johnson managed just 58 yards in 18 carries, and Gronowski averaged just 6.9 yards per completion. Each of these teams can usually count on dominating the line of scrimmage in nearly every game it plays, but the gains are much smaller against each other. SDSU found some success with Gronowski keeping the ball (13 carries, 77 yards) and got a 66-yard burst from change-of-pace quarterback Chase Mason. But even with SDSU’s improved form, it’s fair to assume that this game, like the teams’ first 2024 meeting, will be defined more by explosions of the good and bad kind, not steady dominance in the trenches.

ESPN BET projection: SDSU 24.0, NDSU 22.5 (SDSU -1.5, over/under 46.5) SP+ projection: SDSU 24.9, NDSU 24.6

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Offensive SP+ rankings: MSU first, USD fourth

First-team all-conference selections (offense): USD – RB Charles Pierre Jr. (5-foot-10, 205 lbs., So.), FB Travis Theis (5-foot-11, 215 lbs., Sr.), TE JJ Galbreath (6-foot-4, 240 lbs., Sr.), C Joey Lombard (6-foot-5, 305 lbs., Sr.); MSU – QB Tommy Mellott (6-foot-0, 208 lbs., Sr.), RB Scottre Humphrey (5-foot-11, 210 lbs., So.), FB Rohan Jones (6-foot-3, 235 lbs., Jr.), RG Marcus Wehr (6-foot-4, 300 lbs., Sr.), LT Conner Moore (6-foot-5, 310 lbs., So.), PR Taco Dowler (5-foot-9, 175 lbs., So.)

Defensive SP+ rankings: MSU second, USD fifth

First-team all-conference selections (defense): USD – Edge Mi’Quise Grace (6-foot-4, 255 lbs., So., MVFC defensive player of the year), DE Nick Gaes (6-foot-4, 275 lbs., Sr.), S Dennis Shorter (5-foot-10, 195 lbs., Sr.); MSU – Edge Brody Grebe (6-foot-3, 250 lbs., Sr.), LB McCade O’Reilly (6-foot-0, 220 lbs., Sr.), SS Rylan Ortt (6-foot-1, 210 lbs., Sr.)

NDSU and SDSU will meet for the 118th time in the first semifinal; Montana State and South Dakota will meet for just the third time in the second. MSU took both ends of a home-and-home series in 2008-09, South Dakota’s first two seasons in FCS, and that was it.

It was a slow growing process for USD: The Yotes went 28-50 in their first seven FCS seasons before Bob Nielson took over, and while the two-time Division II-winning coach had them in the playoffs in his second season (2017), they were up and down, and he entered 2023 just 32-42 overall. His defense was set with coordinator Travis Johansen, but when he pulled offensive coordinator Josh Davis over from SDSU in 2023, he saw immediate payoff.

Davis inherited an offense that had averaged 16.0 points per game and improved it to 24.0 in 2023 and 37.2 in 2024. Charles Pierre Jr. and Travis Theis have combined for 2,249 rushing yards and 33 TDs, and Aidan Bouman is completing 69% of his passes at 14.0 yards per completion. On the defensive side the Coyotes are allowing 16.6 points per game thanks in part to the Missouri Valley’s best defensive player, breakout star Mi’Quise Grace. Grace has racked up 12.5 tackles for loss in his last seven games, and he has saved some of his best performances for the biggest opponents: Against Wisconsin, SDSU and NDSU, he had 17 tackles, 6 TFLs and 4 sacks. This is a rather weakness-free team. They’ve even gotten three return scores from special teams.

South Dakota narrowly beat NDSU and narrowly lost to SDSU. Now the Yotes complete the set by playing the other top team. We’ll find out if Bobcat Stadium is a bridge too far. Montana State has won 34 of its last 35 games there and proved again against Idaho last Friday just how much things can snowball on visitors. They have one of the most unique quarterbacks you’ll ever see: In just over three full seasons in Bozeman (he played just three games in 2023 before injury), Tommy Mellott has thrown for more than 5,000 yards and rushed for more than 3,000. He runs as if he weighs far more than 208 pounds, and he’s completed 70% of his passes for 2,430 yards, 28 touchdowns and just 2 INTs. And he’s got so much help on this offense, from backs Scottre Humphrey and Adam Jones (combined: 2,592 yards from scrimmage and 29 TDs), to a trio of pass catchers with 450-plus yards, to an offensive line that’s as big and mean as any in FCS.

The offense gives the defense plenty of margin for error, but it’s relentless in its own right, with 23 players having recorded at least one TFL (and three with at least 8.5) and two masterful pass rushers in Brody Grebe and Kenneth Eiden IV. Including sacks as pass attempts, the Bobcats allow 4.8 yards per pass attempt and 4.6 yards per rush.

Head coach Brent Vigen has been biding his time and waiting for the breakthrough that seems to have come in 2024. MSU has been the best team in FCS from start to finish. But finishing with wins over a pair of Dakota teams is going to require something close to perfection.

ESPN BET projection: MSU 32.25, USD 24.25 (MSU -8, over/under 56.5) SP+ projection: MSU 29.7, USD 21.2