Ovechkin's pursuit of goals record creates betting frenzy

Records set by Wayne Gretzky aren’t meant to be broken. The “Great One” has nearly 1,000 more career points (2,857) than Jaromir Jagr (1,921 in second place) and over 1,200 more than the closest active player, Sidney Crosby (1,644). Gretzky has over 700 more assists (1,963) than second-place Ron Francis (1,249) and almost 1,000 more than Crosby, the active leader (1,040).

For Alex Ovechkin to be just 21 goals away from tying Gretzky’s all-time record of 894 is clearly no small feat, and the chase has created a palpable buzz. As with any major moment of historical or record-setting interest, bettors are increasingly looking for a piece of the action. It hasn’t hurt that the Washington Capitals captain is ahead of schedule in the goal race and his team dominates the league — both welcome surprises.

During the 2023-24 season, the 39-year-old scored 31 goals in 79 games, a pace of 0.39 goals per game, the lowest of his career. The belief was that Father Time had finally caught up with Ovechkin and he would need at least two more seasons to catch Gretzky.

Sportsbooks still wanted to tap into the excitement of Ovechkin’s record chase while acknowledging the implausibility of him getting it done during the 2024-25 campaign. BetMGM, DraftKings and Fanduel offered a special on him breaking the record this season (recording goal 895), opening at +1000 odds. Other books, like Caesars and ESPN BET, didn’t begin the season with the market on the board due to its supposedly unlikely nature.

Ovechkin began the season on an absolutely torrid scoring pace, netting 15 goals in his first 18 games — a ratio of 0.83 goals per game, which would be the best of his career over the length of an entire season. It also produced another unexpected development: the Capitals opened at 75-1 to win the Stanley Cup this season – tied for 23rd in the league – but just over halfway through the campaign, they are leading both the Metropolitan Division and Eastern Conference. With 63 points, they are tied with the Winnipeg Jets for the most points in the NHL.

“I didn’t think we’d be where we are today,” Caesars Sportsbook’s head of hockey Karry Shreeve told ESPN. “I certainly didn’t project the Capitals as a team to be where they are and that kind of reflects where we stand right now with some of our positions. So it correlated to me that Ovechkin also wasn’t going to be quite in the neighborhood [of the record].”

The team’s success created some significant trouble for sportsbooks, with BetMGM reporting Washington as its second-largest liability to win the Cup behind only the always-popular New York Rangers. Shreeve says that his trading team didn’t “buy in” to the hot start and didn’t adjust the odds on Caps futures until it was absolutely forced to. He added that “customers will do very well” if Washington can cash tickets to win the division, conference or championship.

The Capitals’ surprisingly great start has made them a profitable play on a nightly basis. A bettor wagering $100 per game would be up a league-leading $1,279 if they backed Washington in every contest on the money line. Still, DraftKings’ sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN that Ovechkin’s hot hand specifically has not affected how the book sets its lines.

Despite the Caps success, this season hasn’t been without drama. On Nov. 18, Ovechkin scored two goals against the Utah Hockey Club, just one night after recording his first hat trick of the season. But during that contest, he collided with Utah’s Jack McBain and fractured his fibula, ultimately sidelining him for 16 games.

It temporarily stymied the momentum of his betting action and lengthened the odds of him breaking Gretzky’s record this season after they rapidly shortened early on.

“Pre-injury, Ovechkin miraculously set the clock back a few years and was on pace to easily break the record this year. Everyone was all over it,” BetMGM senior trader Matthew Rowe told ESPN. “Since his return, his production has slowed a bit, and now we are seeing more balanced action…. The odds continue to drop on him achieving it this season.”

Shreeve and his team at Caesars used Ovechkin’s time off the ice to re-evaluate how the book wanted to handle the special market. They reopened the market shortly following Ovechkin’s return, and after five goals in 10 games back, Ovechkin’s odds to break the record this season now stands at +140 at the book, as of Jan. 16.

“The whole point with something like this is that you want to make it very attractive to the player on the ‘Yes’ side,” said Shreeve. “So until we’re absolutely forced math-wise … we want to keep that as plus as we can.”

ESPN BET opened its special market at +120 in early January and reports that it’s been popular with bettors. Despite being open for a shorter amount of time, the market has already taken more bets and handle than the sportsbook’s special offering of Shohei Ohtani to record 50-plus home runs and 50-plus stolen bases during the 2024 MLB season.

Assuming Ovechkin can pick the pace back up, sportsbooks will turn their attention towards other special markets related to the record chase, such as which team he will set the record against and the method of how he will do it. FanDuel reports that while the latter market doesn’t have heavy of action, the most popular pick has been on the power play, where Ovechkin is already the all-time goals leader with 317.

The hype around Ovechkin’s record pursuit isn’t limited to just special futures markets. Whenever the Capitals play, the winger’s anytime goalscorer props have been proven to be an exceedingly popular play among NHL bettors.

On Jan. 7, Ovechkin was the most-bet anytime goalscorer across the league at ESPN BET, accumulating double the number of wagers as the next closest player. It’s one of eight occasions where he’s been the most popular anytime goalscorer at the sportsbook this season.

BetMGM reports that Ovechkin has received the second most total tickets and handle for anytime goalscorer in the NHL, and has been the most-bet for the market in every Capitals game since his return from injury.

Shreeve emphasizes that Caesars tries to offer appealing live odds in the market as often as it can, since bettors always seem to flock to it when they have the chance.

“We’re obviously a book and we’re trying to profit, of course, but it never hurts when he does score,” Shreeve said. “It just keeps the momentum, keeps a happy customer, and they keep coming back. If he can just continue to give you a nice pace, it’s just a win-win for everybody.”