Monday Night Football Best Same Game Parlay Picks for Patriots vs. Cardinals

December 13, 2022 ndowd

Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals look for just their second home victory of the season tonight when they host the New England Patriots and Mac Jones in prime time on Monday Night Football.

Arizona has struggled throughout both Murray and Kingsbury’s time together to cover games at home, going just 12-18-0 ATS since taking the gig in 2019. Meanwhile, Bill Belichick’s Patriots have traditionally thrived vs. the number in these spots. Since 2003, New England under Belichick is 53-27-1 ATS, including 11-9-1 ATS since Tom Brady moved from the Pats to the Bucs.

Can the Cardinals accomplish both of their home wins in prime time matchups? Or will the Patriots keep their playoff hopes alive in the toughest division in football?

Before we tackle how we plan to build our same game parlay this evening, here are the best available odds for tonight’s matchup.

Using the odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, here is my favorite available same game parlay, or SGP for tonight’s matchup from Glendale at +441 odds, where a $25 bet would win $110.31.

Best Same Game Parlay Picks for Patriots vs. Cardinals

Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD Scorer (-160)
Rhamondre Stevenson 50+ Rushing Yards (-490)
DeVante Parker 25+ Receiving Yards (-290)
Under 8.5 1Q Total Points (-116)

Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD Scorer

Stevenson enters tonight at odds of -150 or higher to score an anytime touchdown tonight, and with good reason. The Cardinals rank dead last in the NFL in opponent red zone scoring percentage (by way of touchdown), and are 31st in opponent TDs/game and opponents points/play.

With Damien Harris out, along with top receiver Jakobi Meyers, Stevenson is set to be the primary offensive weapon deployed for New England tonight, and adding him to our parlay to find six makes his price tag a much less concerning option.

Rhamondre Stevenson 50+ Rushing Yards

While Stevenson hasn’t gone above this number in two of his last three games, the circumstances without Harris and Meyers should drastically change the gameplan for New England.

Teams don’t run all the time vs. Arizona, but when they do, they often are successful. The Cardinals come in bottom 10 in opponent yards/rush this season, and Stevenson is projected to run anywhere between 17.5 and 18.5 times across several different sportsbooks.

In games where Stevenson has had 12 carries or more, he’s cleared this prop in six of his last seven.

Stevenson’s prop is set nearly 25 rushing yards or so higher, so while the price tag is steep, it takes care of itself in the larger scheme of the four-leg parlay.

DeVante Parker 25+ Receiving Yards

Parker has seen back-to-back four target games in the last two weeks, but only caught two balls the week before vs. the Buffalo Bills for 16 yards. The previous game, he hauled in all four for 80 yards in Minnesota.

With Jakobi Meyers out, Parker is expected to have anywhere between 2.5 to 3.5 receptions, and in games where he’s caught the ball at least three games, he’s cleared 24.5 yards in every single one.

We’re also getting more value on the play with Parker’s number set closer to the 35.5, rather than 24.5.

Under 8.5 1Q Total Points

These two teams are amongst the worst scoring teams in the NFL in the first 15 minutes of the game.

The Cardinals are averaging 2.4 1st quarter points this season, including just 2 in the 1st at home, while the Patriots aren’t much better at 2.7 1st quarter points. Those rank 31st and 28th respectively in the league.

Granted, the Patriots have been a better scoring team on the road compared to at home, but given the inconsistencies and missing players on offense tonight, I don’t expect to see the scoreboard light up early between these two teams.