NFL best bets for Week 16 (Jaguars pull off upset, Steelers, Mike Tomlin keep covering)

There are just three weeks left in the 2022 regular season, and the BetSided team is still over .500 in our NFL best bets this season, going 31-28-2 so far.

We have just two plays this week, but they are both on games with short spreads, so they should be very interesting to watch.

Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers are on the mind of our guy Ben Heisler, who has been an avid Steelers better at times this season.

Meanwhile, Peter Dewey has a moneyline underdog as his best bet of the week. Let’s get after it and win two more bets this season!

NFL Best Bets for Week 16

• Pittsburgh Steelers -1 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
• Jacksonville Jaguars Moneyline vs. New York Jets

Pittsburgh Steelers -1 vs. Las Vegas Raiders

I took the Pittsburgh Steelers to be my upset pick here at BetSided last week on the road vs. the Carolina Panthers, but the sharps started hammering Carolina from -1.5 to -3 and even beyond the key number, I backed away and cashed out.

I should have followed my gut, as Pittsburgh went on to win outright on the road.

Over the last three games, the Steelers’ defense ranks eighth in the NFL in opponent points-per-play, significantly improving their rush defense with the return of T.J. Watt as they’ve moved into 8th in the league in opponent yards/rush.

Despite their improbable victory against the New England Patriots in Week 15, the Las Vegas Raiders remain one of the league’s worst-coached teams, and put up awful numbers on the road offensively. Derek Carr this season has thrown 10 interceptions; nine of which have come away from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. The Raiders have also rushed for four touchdowns compared to seven at home despite running 174 more plays away from home.

I get that once Mike Tomlin becomes a favorite, the trend is to stay away. However, let’s not disrespect one of the most consistent coaches in the NFL over the past 15 seasons. In home primetime games as a favorite of 3-points or less, Tomlin is 4-2-0 against the spread, winning by a margin of 5.25 points per game (via BetLabs).

Even though I grabbed Pittsburgh early at -1, as well as on the moneyline, I think they’re sitting pretty at home and would take them all the way up to 2.5. – Ben Heisler

Jacksonville Jaguars Moneyline vs. New York Jets

The Jacksonville Jaguars are slight underdogs in Week 16 against the New York Jets, but it’s not scaring me away with a potential division title hanging in the balance for the Jags.

The Jets are struggling right now, especially on offense with Zach Wilson under center. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence is playing the best football of his young career, leading the Jags back from 17 down in Week 15 to upset the Dallas Cowboys.

The weakness of the Jacksonville defense is in the secondary, but can Wilson really take advantage of that? I highly doubt it.

Lawrence has thrown for multiple scores in four of the last five games, and the Jaguars are surging at 6-8 on the season. I’m going to ride the hot hand and take the Jags to pull off the road win on Thursday Night Football. – Peter Dewey

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.