Net yards per play report: Here comes Tom Brady and the Buccaneers

The final week of the NFL season is finally here. There are a few meaningful games left to be played, but we already have a good idea of what teams are going to be competing in the postseason.

So, let’s take a step back and evaluate these clubs.

One of my favorite ways to do that is to take a look at the stat called net yards per play, which takes the average amount of yards gained per play on offense, and subtracts average amount of yards given up per play on defense. The remaining number is what we call net yards per play.

Keep in mind, net yards per play doesn’t take into consideration things like turnovers, third down conversion rate, and red zone efficiency. With that being said, it’s a great starting point for evaluating teams.

Let’s take a look at the net yards per play report heading into Week 18:

Buccaneers are getting hot at the right time

All season long, people have been waiting for the Buccaneers to become the Buccaneers we expected to see at the start of the season. Well, they may have finally arrived.

The Bucs have won two straight games to capture the NFC South, and if you look at net yards per play, they’re sitting ninth in the NFL over each team’s last three games at +0.8.

Those aren’t elite numbers, but they’re good enough to make them dangerous in the first round of the playoffs when they get to host at their home stadium.

Don’t look now, but the Bucs are all of a sudden peaking at the right time.

Are the Jaguars the Bengals from last season?

Speaking of teams who are starting to get hot, the Jacksonville Jaguars have been playing the best football we’ve seen from them since they went to the AFC Championship in 2017.

Over their last three games, they’re second in the entire NFL in net yards per play at +1.4, and Trevor Lawrence has finally started to look like the first overall draft pick that he is.

Jacksonville still needs to beat its division rival, the Tennessee Titans, in the final week to make the playoffs. But, if they do, the Jaguars are going to be a dangerous team in the postseason.

They look a lot like last year’s Bengals, who peaked at the right time heading into the playoffs and rode that wave all the way to the Super Bowl.

They’re 6.5-point favorites on Saturday night in the AFC South deciding showdown.

You can track Iain’s bets on Betstamp here.

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