Projecting the NFL playoff picture: Updated chances to clinch, tight races to watch

Playoff probabilities are updated as the games progress, based on ESPN Analytics’ live win
probabilities and its NFL Football Power Index projections.

Live in-game win probabilities measure multiple factors, including score, time remaining, field
position, down-and-distance, team/opponent strength and game site.

These live probabilities are used by FPI season projections, which simulate the season based on
each team’s strength, schedule and tiebreaking rules.

The result is a live representation of a team’s various playoff, division and seed chances, along
with an updated projection of the final standings.