What to know for NFL Week 18: Bold predictions, score picks, playoff scenarios, key stats for Sunday's games
-
ESPN staff
The Week 18 NFL schedule for the 2022 season is stacked with great matchups, and we got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game and a bold prediction for each matchup.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big stat to know, playoff clinching scenarios and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Finally, Seth Walder and Eric Moody give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into Sunday’s Week 18 slate, including the Packers hosting the Lions with a playoff berth up for grabs and an AFC showdown between the Bengals and Ravens.
Jump to a matchup:
NE-BUF
MIN-CHI | HOU-IND | NYJ-MIA
CAR-NO | TB-ATL | CLE-PIT
BAL-CIN | DAL-WSH | NYG-PHI
LAR-SEA | LAC-DEN | ARI-SF | DET-GB
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: BUF -7 (42.5)
What to watch for: It is a win-and-in scenario for New England with the final wild-card spot on the line. But to get to the playoffs, they have to take down a Bills team coming off an emotional week following Damar Hamlin‘s collapse on the field due to cardiac arrest on Monday night. The Bills dominated the teams’ meeting earlier this season, almost doubling the Patriots’ time of possession and holding New England to just 60 rushing yards. — Alaina Getzenberg
Bold prediction: Patriots running back Damien Harris will be an unexpected breakout player, rushing for more than 100 yards against a Bills run defense that ranks 13th in the NFL in average yards allowed per carry (4.3). Harris’ return from a four-game absence due to a thigh injury was an important boost to a New England offense that was relying too heavily on fatigued Rhamondre Stevenson. — Mike Reiss
Stat to know: The Bills could match the franchise record for most wins in a season (13), done three times previously in 1990, 1991 and 2020.
What’s at stake: The Patriots are playing for the playoffs, needing a win to clinch the final AFC wild-card spot. But they can also make it with a loss, as long as both the Dolphins and Steelers lose and Jacksonville wins. ESPN’s FPI is giving New England a 33.2% chance. The Bills are already AFC East champs, and they can become the 1-seed — and gain home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs — if the beat New England and the Chiefs lose on Saturday. See playoff picture.
Betting nugget: New England is 0-4 ATS against teams with winning records this season. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Bills 28, Patriots 17
Walder’s pick: Bills 23, Patriots 19
FPI prediction: BUF, 78.5% (by an average of 9.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Keys for Pats, seven other must-win Week 18 matchups … Hamlin shows ‘remarkable improvement’; agent says safety is awake … Bengals’ Taylor praises Bills coach McDermott for actions … A cardiologist’s view of what happened to Hamlin
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: MIN -7.5 (43.5)
What to watch for: Justin Fields‘ second NFL season ends 64 yards shy of the single-season quarterback rushing record after he was ruled out against Minnesota with a hip injury. Nathan Peterman will start for Chicago. Meanwhile, the NFC No. 2 seed is still in play for the Vikings so long as they win at Soldier Field and the 49ers lose to the Cardinals. — Courtney Cronin
Bold prediction: The Vikings’ defense will have its best statistical day of the season with Fields sidelined. Even with Fields on the field, the Bears managed just 230 yards last week against the Lions’ woeful defense. The Vikings enter this game giving up 396.8 yards per game, No. 31 in the NFL. Their season low for yards allowed was 263 in Week 9 at Washington. They’ll hold the Bears below that threshold. — Kevin Seifert
Stat to know: Kirk Cousins is tied with Dak Prescott and Derek Carr for league-lead in interceptions (14).
What’s at stake: The Vikings are locked in as NFC North champs but do not have a shot at the No. 1 seed. They are most likely to be the third seed, setting up a wild-card matchup with the Giants. The Bears have been eliminated but are right in the mix for the No. 1 draft pick, which ESPN’s FPI currently gives them a 48.4% chance to land. They would have to lose and see the Texans beat the Colts. See playoff picture.
Betting nugget: Minnesota is 0-4 ATS in its past four games. Six straight Minnesota games have gone over the total. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Vikings 23, Bears 10
Walder’s pick: Vikings 20, Bears 13
FPI prediction: MIN, 64.2% (by an average of 4.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: ‘There has never been anything like this’: How 12-4 Vikings remain an enigma … Bears’ Fields out Sunday, ending shot at QB rushing mark … Vikings piecing together offensive line as injuries mount … Will it be the Bears at No. 1 in the draft?
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: IND -2.5 (38)
What to watch for: The Texans would own the No. 1 overall draft choice if the season ended today, but that could change with a win. The Colts, who are angling to acquire a franchise quarterback, currently own the fifth overall pick (per ESPN’s FPI projections) but could slide with a win. Every spot on the draft board is precious when you’ve endured the kind of quarterback morass they have in Indianapolis. — Stephen Holder
Bold prediction: The Texans win this game and lose the No. 1 overall pick. Colts quarterback Sam Ehlinger has started two games this year, and the Colts are 0-2 in those starts, as he’s averaged 152 yards passing with zero touchdown passes. They also averaged 9.5 points per game under Ehlinger. The Colts haven’t been great at running the ball either since Jonathan Taylor landed on IR. The Texans won’t need to score much to beat the Colts, and getting to 17 points should be enough. — DJ Bien-Aime
Stat to know: The Colts are currently on a six-game losing streak, their longest since losing six in a row in 2017.
What’s at stake: Both teams are eliminated from the playoffs, but there is something big on the line. The Texans can secure the No. 1 draft pick for April if they lose or the Bears beat the Vikings. ESPN’s FPI is giving Houston a 51.6% chance to clinch. See playoff picture.
Betting nugget: Indianapolis is 1-5 ATS as a favorite this season and 1-7 ATS in its past eight games in that role. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Colts 20, Texans 13
Walder’s pick: Texans 19, Colts 16
FPI prediction: HOU, 73% (by an average of 7.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Texans’ Hughes credits kids for helping him find ‘fun’ in sports again’ during resurgent year … Giants’ Thibodeaux not bothered by Saturday’s criticism … Big questions about the No. 1 pick: Can the Texans clinch? … Colts’ Ngakoue to undergo throat surgery, placed on IR
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: MIA -2.5 (38.5)
What to watch for: The all-time regular season series between the teams is tied at 56-56-1, so the Jets could not only take the series lead with a win Sunday, but they would also secure their first season sweep of the Dolphins since 2015. Interestingly enough, the Jets have never beaten QB Tua Tagovailoa but will not have faced him in either of these teams’ matchups this season, as Skylar Thompson is expected to start for the Dolphins on Sunday. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Bold prediction: The Jets will fail to score an offensive touchdown for the third straight game. They’re in a serious funk, having produced only four touchdowns in the past five games (58 possessions). They’re averaging 1.0 point per drive over that span, the lowest in the league. This feels like a slump that will carry into the offseason. — Rich Cimini
Stat to know: The Dolphins have lost five straight games since an 8-3 start and are hoping to avoid ending a season with six straight losses for the first time in franchise history.
0:51
Adam Schefter would be surprised to not see Jalen Hurts playing in Week 18 given what is at stake for the Eagles.
What’s at stake: The Jets might be eliminated (projected to pick at No. 13 in the draft, per ESPN’s FPI), but the Dolphins still have a lot to play for in Week 18. They need a win and Patriots loss to clinch the final AFC playoff spot. They have a 49.5% chance, per ESPN’s FPI. See playoff picture.
Betting nugget: New York is 0-3 ATS in its past three games. Nine of its past 11 games have gone under the total, including three straight. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Jets 31, Dolphins 27
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 20, Jets 16
FPI prediction: MIA, 63.2% (by an average of 3.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Jets standing by QB Wilson ‘through hell or high water’ … Dolphins QB Thompson getting first-team reps in practice … Jets’ revolving door at quarterback: Benchings, injuries and big questions
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: NO -3.5 (42)
What to watch for: Saints coach Dennis Allen has been firm about not making major changes to the lineup with no chance of reaching the playoffs, but injuries could tweak that a bit. First-round pick Trevor Penning could get his first start at left tackle in place of James Hurst, and rookie cornerback Alontae Taylor could get back into the starting lineup due to Paulson Adebo‘s hamstring injury after playing no defensive snaps last week. — Katherine Terrell
Bold prediction: The Panthers will rush for at least 250 yards against a New Orleans defense that gives up 127.9 yards a game, including 145 to Carolina in a Week 3 loss. D’Onta Foreman will lead the way with 150 yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries to send interim coach Steve Wilks off with a 6-6 record. — David Newton
Stat to know: Panthers receiver DJ Moore is 122 receiving yards away from a fourth straight 1,000-yard season.
What’s at stake: Neither team will make the playoffs. And while ESPN’s FPI projects the Panthers’ draft pick to be No. 9, the Saints do not have a first-rounder this year. See playoff picture.
Betting nugget: Eight of New Orleans’ past nine games have gone under the total, including five straight. Carolina has gone over the total in four straight games. The past four meetings between these teams went under the total. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Saints 28, Panthers 24
Walder’s pick: Panthers 24, Saints 13
FPI prediction: NO, 59.3% (by an average of 2.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Has Panthers interim coach Wilks earned the full-time job? … As young stars continue to emerge, the Saints hope to end season on four-game winning streak … Panthers owner, Jim Harbaugh talked coaching job … Jordan becomes Saints’ sack leader, thanks Ryan … Pain of losing shot at NFC South title shows how far Panthers have come
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: ATL -4 (40.5)
What to watch for: Tom Brady has never lost to the Falcons in his career — 10-0 in the regular season and 1-0 in the postseason. Should Brady start Sunday, he’ll have a chance to extend that streak. Atlanta hasn’t beaten Tampa Bay since 2019 and hasn’t won at home against the Buccaneers since Oct. 14, 2018. — Michael Rothstein
Bold prediction: Last week might have belonged to Mike Evans, but Russell Gage, who has quietly come on in recent weeks, will finish with 75 receiving yards and a touchdown after missing the first matchup against his former team in Week 5. — Jenna Laine
Stat to know: Brady has 477 completions this season and is nine shy of breaking the single-season completions record set by himself in 2021.
What’s at stake: The Buccaneers are in as NFC South champs and will be the No. 4 seed in the playoffs. The Falcons are eliminated and looking at the No. 8 spot in the draft, per ESPN’s FPI. See playoff picture.
Injuries: Buccaneers | Falcons
Betting nugget: Tampa Bay is a league-worst 4-11-1 ATS this season, including 2-11-1 ATS in its past 14 games and 1-5 ATS in its past six games. It is also 0-5 ATS in its past five road games. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Falcons 23, Buccaneers 17
Walder’s pick: Falcons 27, Buccaneers 17
FPI prediction: TB, 62.8% (by an average of 3.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Bucs coach Bowles plans to play starters in Week 18 … Rookie Allgeier powers Falcons’ running game … Brady finds Evans for 3 TDs as Bucs win NFC South … OC Byron Leftwich: Demise of Bucs offense greatly exaggerated
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: PIT -2.5 (40.5)
What to watch for: Fueling the Steelers’ late surge is a clutch rookie quarterback and a turnover-happy defense. But the Browns aren’t an easy win. The offense turned in its best performance since Deshaun Watson‘s return last week, thanks to Watson’s three touchdown passes, Amari Cooper‘s 105 receiving yards and Nick Chubb‘s 104 rushing yards. — Brooke Pryor
Bold prediction: Kenny Pickett has delivered so far in the clutch to keep Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes alive. Yet again, the rookie QB will be down a score late and start a possession with the chance to win the game in the final seconds. — Jake Trotter
Stat to know: Najee Harris is 46 rushing yards shy of a second consecutive 1,000-yard season to start his career (1,200 rush yards in 2021). Harris would be first player in franchise history to rush for 1,000 yards in each of his first two seasons.
What’s at stake: Pittsburgh can still make the playoffs, but it needs help. It would need to win and get losses from the Patriots and Dolphins. ESPN’s FPI is giving the Steelers a 15.6% chance. The Browns have been eliminated and do not have a first-round pick. See playoff picture.
Betting nugget: Six straight Cleveland games have gone under the total, including all five Watson starts. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Browns 27, Steelers 21
Walder’s pick: Browns 24, Steelers 17
FPI prediction: PIT, 53.4% (by an average of 1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Browns offense shows first sign of progress … Pickett leads another Steelers comeback to keep playoffs in sight
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: CIN -7 (40.5)
What to watch for: The stakes of this game were unclear early in the week, but the Bengals are now AFC North champions. Cincinnati had a much tougher schedule than Baltimore, which has been without quarterback Lamar Jackson down the stretch and lost three of its past six games. We could see a rematch of these two teams in the wild-card round, too, with the location of that matchup being determined by a coin flip. — Ben Baby
Bold prediction: The Ravens will give up more than 30 points. Since Week 3, Baltimore is one of two defenses to hold every opponent under 30 points (Jets). But since the Ravens held the Bengals to 17 points in Week 5, Joe Burrow and Cincinnati have averaged the third-most points in the league (28.3 per game). — Jamison Hensley
Stat to know: The Bengals could match their franchise record for most wins in a season (12), done three times previously (1981, 1988 and 2015).
What’s at stake: Both teams are in, and the Bengals are AFC North champs. If the Ravens win Sunday and are matched against Cincinnati in an AFC wild-card game, the site would be determined by a coin flip. If Cincinnati wins or if the two teams are not matched against each other after a potential Ravens win, regular scheduling procedures would be used. See playoff picture.
Betting nugget: Baltimore has not been more than a three-point underdog this season. Since 2018, Baltimore is 16-3-1 ATS as an underdog, including 6-2 ATS without Jackson. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Bengals 24, Ravens 13
Walder’s pick: Bengals 27, Ravens 10
FPI prediction: CIN, 58.2% (by an average of 2.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Ravens ready for ‘unique’ Bengals showdown … Bengals’ Taylor praises Bills coach for reaction … Taylor’s wife gathering well-wishes for Hamlin
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: DAL -7 (41)
What to watch for: Washington will start rookie quarterback Sam Howell, the eighth different starter in coach Ron Rivera’s three seasons and the 33rd to start for the franchise since it last won the Super Bowl after the 1991 season. He’ll get to face the NFL’s 10th-ranked pass defense, which has recorded the third-most sacks and is tied for the sixth-most interceptions. — John Keim
Bold prediction: The Cowboys will win the NFC East with a win and become the No. 2 seed in the playoffs, with the Eagles losing to the Giants. They will become the first team to repeat as NFC East winners since the Eagles won four straight from 2001-04. By being the No. 2 seed, the Cowboys will get at least one home game at AT&T Stadium, but it’s also possible they will face Aaron Rodgers if the Packers beat the Lions on Sunday night. Wouldn’t that be a matchup for Cowboys fans to dread, knowing Rodgers’ history against the Cowboys? — Todd Archer
Stat to know: The Cowboys are seeking their 13th win this season, which would tie their franchise record for a single season (1992, 2007 and 2016).
What’s at stake: Washington is out, but Dallas is in — and still in contention for the NFC East and the conference’s No. 1 seed. A win and an Eagles loss clinches the division title, and an additional 49ers loss would also hand the Cowboys the first-round bye in the playoffs. ESPN’s FPI is giving Dallas a 14.9% chance at the division and 1.6% chance at the NFC’s top seed. Washington, meanwhile, is projected to pick at No. 14 in the draft and has a 1.1% chance to slip into the top 10. See playoff picture.
Injuries: Cowboys | Commanders
Betting nugget: Washington is 0-4 ATS in its past four games. Eleven of its past 14 games have gone over the total. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Cowboys 33, Commanders 17
Walder’s pick: Cowboys 26, Commanders 19
FPI prediction: DAL, 83.6% (by an average of 11.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Prescott knows he’s ‘got to stop’ throwing INTs for Cowboys to make Super Bowl run … Commanders to start rookie Howell in finale … Will Dallas be No. 1 in NFC? … Why start Howell now and what’s next for Wentz, Rivera
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: PHI -14 (43)
What to watch for: All eyes are on whether quarterback Jalen Hurts (sprained throwing shoulder) will play for the first time since Dec. 18. If not, it will be Gardner Minshew for a third straight week. The Giants are locked into the No. 6 seed, meaning they have the opportunity to rest key starters in this one if they choose. — Tim McManus
Bold prediction: The Giants keep this game close, despite resting some of their top players. This has been a pesky bunch for the most part, minus the 26-point loss to the Eagles in their previous meeting. Who cares if the Giants are 14-point underdogs in this one? They will give the Eagles fits with that fourth-ranked rushing attack. — Jordan Raanan
Stat to know: A.J. Brown is nine receiving yards shy of breaking the Eagles’ single-season record set by Mike Quick in 1983 (1,409).
What’s at stake: The Giants are locked into the No. 6 seed. But while the Eagles locked up a playoff spot weeks ago, they still have something to play for here. A win gives Philly the NFC East title and the top seed in the conference. But if the Eagles lose, they’d need a Dallas loss to win the division and an additional 49ers loss to still take the conference’s top seed. ESPN’s FPI is giving Philadelphia an 85.1% chance to win the NFC East and an 82.4% chance to hold off Dallas and San Francisco for the first-round bye in the playoffs. See playoff picture.
Betting nugget: New York is 9-2 ATS as an underdog this season and 6-1 ATS on the road (all as an underdog). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Eagles 28, Giants 20
Walder’s pick: Eagles 30, Giants 12
FPI prediction: PHI, 81.8% (by an average of 10.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Daboll mum on Giants’ Week 18 approach vs. Eagles … Mock draft: Eagles need defenders in first round … The Jones debate is over after Giants clinch playoffs … Thibodeaux not bothered by Jeff Saturday criticism
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: SEA -6 (41.5)
What to watch for: The Seahawks need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. But before beating the Jets last week, the Seahawks had lost five of their past six games. The Rams were the only team they beat during that stretch, and the Seahawks needed a late Geno Smith touchdown drive to do it. — Brady Henderson
Bold prediction: Bobby Wagner will break the Rams’ single-season record for tackles (142) against his former team. Wagner needs 10 tackles to break the mark. In the first game between Seattle and Los Angeles this season, Wagner had seven tackles, two sacks and an interception. — Sarah Barshop
Stat to know: The Seahawks haven’t missed the playoffs in consecutive seasons under Pete Carroll.
What’s at stake: ESPN’s FPI is giving Seattle a 20.7% chance to make the playoffs. The Seahawks need to win and then have the Lions beat the Packers on Sunday night. The Rams are out and do not have a first-round draft pick. See playoff picture.
Betting nugget: Seattle is 1-6 ATS in its past seven games despite covering against the Jets last week. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Seahawks 31, Rams 19
Walder’s pick: Seahawks 23, Rams 22
FPI prediction: SEA, 61.8% (by an average of 3.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Wagner says Seahawks ‘gave up’ on him … The Seahawks’ playoff hopes come down to Week 18 … Carroll: Seahawks LB Brooks has ‘legit’ ACL injury
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: DEN -2.5 (39.5)
What to watch for: Keep an eye on which Chargers lineup takes the field against the Broncos. Los Angeles could have its playoff seed locked in by kickoff, and if that’s the case, some starters might rest. If so, Broncos QB Russell Wilson, who is on track for a career-low in touchdown passes and already has a career-high in sacks (53), has a better chance at ending the season on a high note. — Jeff Legwold
Bold prediction: The Bolts will do everything possible to get running back Austin Ekeler the ball in the red zone to give the undrafted sixth-year running back a chance to join elite company. Ekeler needs two touchdowns to join LaDainian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander, Priest Holmes, Marshall Faulk and Emmitt Smith as the only players in NFL history with 20 touchdowns in consecutive seasons. — Lindsey Thiry
Stat to know: Justin Herbert already has the most passing yards (13,816) through his first three seasons of anyone in NFL history.
What’s at stake: The Chargers are locked into a wild-card berth, while the Broncos are eliminated (and do not have a first-round pick). See playoff picture.
Betting nugget: Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS as a road favorite this season. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Chargers 23, Broncos 19
Walder’s pick: Chargers 20, Broncos 13
FPI prediction: LAC, 77.2% (by an average of 8.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Chargers’ Carter: Substitute teacher-turned-special teams standout … Three adjustments Broncos interim coach Rosburg should continue to make
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: SF -14 (40)
What to watch for: San Francisco enters Sunday’s game with a nine-game winning streak and a chance to claim the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The last time the 49ers entered the playoffs with a winning streak of nine or more games was in 1984, which ended with a Super Bowl XIX victory. — Josh Weinfuss
Bold prediction: There’s nothing to play for, injuries have riddled the roster and the Cardinals are trotting out their fourth staring quarterback of the season in David Blough. But Blough will have the best game of his career, throwing for 300 yards, two touchdown passes and an interception. One of those scores will go to A.J. Green, who might be playing the last game of his career, and the other will find Marquise Brown on a deep ball. — Weinfuss
Stat to know: The 49ers’ nine-game winning streak is their longest since winning 11 straight in 1997.
What’s at stake: The NFC West champion Niners still have an outside shot at the No. 1 seed in the conference. They need to win and see the Eagles lose. ESPN’s FPI is giving San Francisco a 16.1% chance. Arizona, meanwhile, is eliminated and looking at the No. 4 draft pick (97.6% to end up in the top five). See playoff picture.
Betting nugget: San Francisco is 6-1 ATS as a home favorite this season, with four straight covers. Read more.
Moody’s pick: 49ers 35, Cardinals 17
Walder’s pick: 49ers 24, Cardinals 20
FPI prediction: SF, 89.9% (by an average of 15.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Kingsbury: Murray ‘probably’ won’t be back to open next season … Purdy earns high marks for leading 49ers from behind
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: GB -5 (49)
What to watch for: The last time these two teams played, the Lions picked off Aaron Rodgers three times. Only four other times in Rodgers’ career has he been picked off that many times in a game. Lately, it has been the Packers’ defense that has been producing takeaways. It has eight in the past two games and 12 total in the current four-game winning streak. — Rob Demovsky
Bold prediction: Jamaal Williams will break Barry Sanders’ franchise record for most rushing touchdowns in a single season (16). The former Green Bay running back needs just one to tie Sanders and two to own the record. He currently leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns (15) and is coming off a season-high 144-yard rushing performance against the Bears as he prepares to face his old squad. — Eric Woodyard
Stat to know: Both the Packers and Lions lost five straight at one point this season. The winner of this game could become one of the rare teams to lose five-plus straight games and still recover to make the postseason.
What’s at stake: If the Packers win, they clinch a playoff spot. ESPN’s FPI says there is a 66.7% chance. But if the Lions win, they clinch — as long as Seattle loses earlier in the day. Detroit has a 12.5% chance. See playoff picture.
Betting nugget: Green Bay is 17-9 ATS in its past 26 games as a home favorite. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Lions 31, Packers 26
Walder’s pick: Lions 27, Packers 23
FPI prediction: GB, 66.4% (by an average of 4.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Answering the biggest questions ahead of Packers-Lions showdown … How the Packers, Lions can win their huge Week 18 matchup … Lions treating Pack showdown like playoff game
Saturday’s games
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ | Spread: JAX -6.5 (40)
What to watch for: The winner takes the AFC South title while the loser almost certainly misses the playoffs. The teams are streaking in opposite directions: The Jaguars have won four in a row, and the Titans have lost six straight. The Titans are starting journeyman QB Joshua Dobbs, while the Jaguars have Trevor Lawrence, who leads the league in completion percentage since November began. The Titans haven’t scored more than 14 points in their past three games, while the Jaguars have only given up six combined points in their past two games. It seems like an easy Jaguars victory, but the Jags haven’t swept the season series with the Titans since 2005. — Mike DiRocco
Bold prediction: The Titans will score at least 24 points. That’s a lot considering how Tennessee has broken the 20-point mark only once during its six-game losing streak. The Jaguars have allowed only 13.3 points per game over the past three weeks, but Dobbs will bring balance to the offense by passing for 250 yards, while Derrick Henry will have a 150-yard rushing performance. — Turron Davenport
Stat to know: Lawrence needs 99 yards to become the third 4,000-yard passer in Jaguars history (2015 Blake Bortles, 1996 Mark Brunell).
What’s at stake: It’s win-and-in for both teams here. The winner of this game will take the AFC South. But while the Titans would be eliminated with a loss, the Jaguars could still make the playoffs if they fail to win Saturday. Jacksonville would need losses from the Patriots, Dolphins and Steelers. See playoff picture.
Betting nugget: Tennessee is 0-5-1 ATS in its past six games. Ten of Tennessee’s past 13 games have gone under the total, including three straight. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Titans 27, Jaguars 20
Walder’s pick: Jaguars 31, Titans 7
FPI prediction: JAX, 85.2% (by an average of 12.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Titans to start Dobbs at QB vs. Jaguars … Jaguars turn attention to Titans after routing Texans … Jaguars fans vote for team’s Week 18 uniform against Titans
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC/ESPN+ | Spread: KC -9 (52)
What to watch for: Time to see if Jarrett Stidham‘s first-ever NFL start against the 49ers’ top-rated defense was a one-off now that the Chiefs have game film on him. Stidham, who will be the first Raiders QB other than Derek Carr to start against Kansas City since Matt McGloin in 2013, has a pair of high-powered assets to work with. Running back Josh Jacobs has rushed for 1,608 yards and could be the Raiders’ first rushing champ since Marcus Allen in 1985, while receiver Davante Adams needs five catches for his third straight 100-reception season and is averaging a career-best 15.2 yards per catch while leading the league with 14 touchdown receptions. — Paul Gutierrez
Bold prediction: Patrick Mahomes and Stidham will combine to throw for more than 700 yards. The Chiefs and Raiders feature two of the NFL’s worst pass defenses, tied for 30th in opposing QBR (55.0). Both teams are also in the bottom 10 in opponent completion percentage and touchdown-to-interception ratio. — Adam Teicher
Stat to know: Travis Kelce is one receiving touchdown shy of becoming the first tight end with 10,000 receiving yards and 70 receiving TDs within their first 10 seasons.
What’s at stake: The Chiefs have already secured the AFC West title and they can lock up the 1-seed in the AFC with a win or a loss by the Bills. The Raiders have been eliminated and are projected to land the No. 7 draft pick in April. See playoff picture.
Betting nugget: Kansas City is 4-10 against the spread (ATS) as a road favorite of at least seven points under Andy Reid (4-8 ATS with Mahomes, including five straight ATS losses). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Chiefs 32, Raiders 24
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 27, Raiders 20
FPI prediction: KC, 90% (by an average of 15.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Chiefs activate wide receiver Hardman from IR … Brady? Garoppolo? Stidham? Looking at the Raiders’ 2023 QB options … Adams hopes to be kept in loop on Raiders’ QB decision
