Jaguars vs. Chiefs prediction and odds for NFL divisional round (Jacksonville will keep game close)

January 17, 2023 ndowd

The Jacksonville Jaguars were the only team to pull off the upset in the first Wild Card Round of the AFC Playoffs, and they did it in fantastic fashion, coming all the way back from a 27-0 deficit to win by a final score of 31-30.

Now, they head to Arrowhead to take on the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round.

Are the Jags a team of destiny, or does their Cinderella Story come to an end on Saturday?

Let’s dive into the odds for the game and then I’ll give you my best bet.

Jaguars vs. Chiefs odds, spread, and total

Jaguars vs. Chiefs betting trends

Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last six games
Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against Jaguars
Jaguars are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games against AFC West opponents
The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams
Chiefs are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games against AFC opponents

Jaguars vs. Chiefs prediction and pick

The Chiefs are rightful favorites to win both this game and the Super Bowl, but when you take the point spread into consideration, it’s not just as easy as betting on the better team.

With the spread set at 8.5 points, I think the value lies with the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The Jaguars defense has been on fire down the final stretch of the season. Over their last three games, they’re keeping teams to only 4.4 yards per play, the third best mark in the NFL over that stretch.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs have some red flags of their own that you need to be aware of.

The biggest issue for the Chiefs is their red zone defense. They allow their opponents to score a touchdown on 67.27% of their red zone trips against them, which is 31st in the NFL. Only the Colts had a worse red zone defense than the Chiefs this season.

It’s tough to cover a big spread when you struggle to hold your opponents to field goals instead of touchdowns.

They have also struggled to stop the run at times, ranking 15th in opponent yards per carry. That could be an area the Jaguars will exploit. They’re averaging 4.8 yards per rush this season, which is eighth in the NFL.

Will the Chiefs win the game? Sure, maybe. Will the Chiefs cover the 8.5-point spread? I don’t think so.

Give me the points with Jacksonville.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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