Best NFL prop bets for Conference Championship Sunday (Ride with Joe Burrow)

January 29, 2023 ndowd

Championship weekend is here!

The top two teams in the AFC and NFC will go to war on Sunday. The Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers will kick-off at 3pm et, and the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Cincinnati Bengals at 6:30pm et.

If you’re looking for some fun player props to bet on for Sunday’s action, you’ve come to the right place.

Let me give you my favorite player prop for each of the two games.

NFC Championship Best Player Prop Bet

If the 49ers want to stay in the game against the Eagles, they need to get Christian McCaffrey going on the ground.

Christian McCaffrey has a great matchup in front of him in the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles have arguably had one of the best defenses in the NFL this season, but their one weakness is their inability to stop the run.

Philadelphia’s key weakness vs. the 49ers, especially in relation to the Cowboys….

Run defense DVOA….

Cowboys: #5
Eagles: #21

— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) January 23, 2023

Not only are they 21st in rush defense DOA, but they’re also 24th in opponent yards per carry, allowing 4.7 yards per rush. That means if Kyle Shanahan is smart, and I think he is, then he’s going to lean on CMC in this game.

If McCaffrey has a big game, he should soar over his rushing yards total.

AFC Championship Best Player Prop Bet

Joe Burrow will complete plenty of passes in AFC Championship

Joe Burrow averages 25.87 completions per game this season, right at the current set total of 25.5 But, I have good reason to believe he’ll go above that total on Sunday against the Chiefs.

First of all, the Chiefs allow plenty of completions. Their zone coverage scheme and “don’t get beat deep” philosophy leads to them not giving up a ton of yards, but they give up a fair amount of completions.

To illustrate that fact, just look at the stats. They rank 28th in the NFL in opponent completions per game, giving up an average of 24. Yet, they only give up an average of 9.2 yards per completion, which was the third best mark in the league this year.

Furthermore, with the Bengals dealing with a banged-up offensive line, they’ve switched to more of a quick passing game. Burrow doesn’t have the time for a five-step drop and a deep ball, so instead, they’ve been doing plenty of short and quick routes. That may not lead to a ton of yards, but it will lead to a good number of completions.

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