How the new-look Lakers impact fantasy and betting after the All-Star break
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Andre SnellingsESPN
On Feb. 7, 2023, LeBron James scored his 38,388th point to surpass Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for the most points in NBA history. He hasn’t played a game since, and the Lakers enter Feb. 15 with a 26-32 record that ranks them last in the Pacific Division and 13th of 15 teams in the Western Conference.
The question for today is this: now that LeBron has achieved his historical moment, is there any other reason to pay attention to the Lakers as a team moving forward?
Let’s explore… starting with something else that quietly happened since LeBron broke the record.
At the NBA Trade Deadline, the Lakers traded away several players, including Russell Wesbtrook, Patrick Beverley, Thomas Bryant and Juan Toscano-Anderson. In return, they acquired D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt, Mo Bamba and Davon Reed. These deals came on the heels of the January trade of Kendrick Nunn and three second round picks for Rui Hachimura.
The Lakers have infamously been one of the worst shooting teams in the NBA this season. Westbrook and Beverley epitomized this, shooting less than 32% from 3-point range combined on almost eight attempts per game… the majority of which were wide-open, as opponents happily gave them those shots.
LeBron and Anthony Davis impact defenses as much as any players in the NBA, but the Lakers had very little shooting around them to take advantage of all the open looks. This allowed opponents to pack the paint, making life more difficult for LeBron and AD to create inside the 3-point line.
LeBron, in particular, would often end up settling for 3-pointers off the dribble, and he was making those 7.0 3PA at a paltry 30.8 3P% that would be his worst mark since his rookie season. Lack of shooting has been a vicious cycle problem for the Lakers and is probably the largest reason their team record is so poor this season.
Thus, the trades. The players the Lakers traded out had larger names than the players they brought in, highlighted by former MVP Westbrook and perhaps the most memed role player in the NBA in Beverley. But, the players they traded for have a very particular set of skills that could prove very useful: they can shoot. Take a look at the 3-point attempts and percentages for four of the new Lakers, over the past two seasons:
The two perimeter players, Russell and Beasley, have combined for almost 16 attempts at over 36% for the past two seasons, and those numbers actually increase if you look over longer spans of time. Meanwhile, Hachimura and Bamba can play power forward and center and both are shooting just under 40% from deep on a solid number of attempts for the past couple seasons.
Add in incumbent Lakers Lonnie Walker IV (37.2 3P%, 4.9 3PA), Austin Reaves (37.0 3P%, 3.4 3PA), Troy Brown Jr. (35.7 3P%, 3.5 3PA) and Dennis Schroder (34.2 3P%, 3.5 3PA) and suddenly the Lakers go eight-deep with solid-to-plus 3-point shooters around LeBron and AD with only Vanderbilt and Wenyen Gabriel as poor shooters (both big men that come off the bench).
This is potentially game-changing for the Lakers. I’ve always thought the team had a puncher’s chance against any team if LeBron and AD were healthy, particularly when Westbrook was able to embrace and thrive (at times) in his role off the bench. But, the lack of shooting kept them from being able to mount any sort of sustained threat.
That could potentially be different moving forward. If the Lakers are able to knock down the easy looks that LeBron and AD create, and do so consistently and at volume, it would change the entire way that opponents would have to defend them. It would allow them to create easier, more efficient offense on a consistent basis, and it would also open things up for LeBron and AD to be able to operate more effectively and efficiently.
There is a dramatic difference in efficiency between how LeBron and AD have finished on several different types of jump shots this season, versus how they performed in the two seasons before the Westbrook era began (2019-20 and 2020-21). According to Second Spectrum, these are the points per possession generated by both LeBron and AD this season vs. 2019-21 for stepback jumpers, shake and raise, catch and shoot and pullup jumpers:
We’re talking an average improvement of 0.2-0.3 points per possession on every shot type. That is a massive number… 20-30% improvement in scoring efficiency on these most-common jump shots that these players take at heavy volume.
It’s important to note that LeBron and Davis have both performed at MVP-levels this season when healthy, so this isn’t a case where their performance has slipped in the last couple of seasons. Instead, their jump-shooting struggles can be traced directly to the way defenses are packing the paint, which ties directly to the caliber of shooter surrounding them.
When the Lakers won their championship in 2019-20, they had shooters like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Danny Green, Kyle Kuzma, Markieff Morris, and even Rajon Rondo (40.0 3P% on 3.1 3PA in playoffs) able to knock down shots and open up space for LeBron and AD to work.
Post-trade, it appears that LeBron and AD might have similar caliber shooters surrounding them for the rest of this season.
On the fantasy hoops front, this could be good for all involved. LeBron and AD could see increased volume due to increased efficiency, with LeBron also not having as much competition for assists from D’Angelo Russell as he had from Russell Westbrook.
Russell and Beasley should get as many 3-point looks as they can handle, making them potential trade or pick-up targets. Whoever settles into starter minutes at the other forward slot could also be worth either streaming or picking up.
On the betting futures landscape, the upgrade in shooting could be big for the Lakers’ projected outcomes. In addition, though I didn’t detail it with numbers, the Lakers also project to improved defense with Vanderbilt (1.8 SP36, 0.9 BP36 over last three seasons) and Bamba (2.7 GP36, 0.7 SP36 for career) helping shore up the defensive frontline around Davis.
With improvements to their two weakest areas, the Lakers could make some noise… but what does that mean, exactly?
The Lakers are currently 2.5 games out of the last play-in spot, 4.5 games out of the sixth seed, and 6.5 games behind the Kings for tops in the Pacific Division. You could get them at plus money to participate in the play-in tournament (+105, per Caesar’s), and at even longer odds to make the playoffs (+220, per FanDuel). They are -110 to go over 39.5 wins, which would require they go 14-10 over the last 24 games.
I think all of these are reasonable bets to make, with a solid likelihood of hitting. It is unlikely they surge enough to actually win the Pacific at this point, but at +6000 (Caesar’s) their odds are long enough that I might throw them in a penny parlay just to see what happens.
To recap, the Lakers were one of the worst shooting and defensive teams in the NBA, full of aging players that lacked athleticism or the ability to take pressure off LeBron and AD. They came out of the trade deadline with a handful of players that don’t have huge names, but that all tend to be strong shooters, strong defenders, or both.
Health is always going to be a question mark with this team, but if LeBron and AD stay healthy, they have a history of improved individual numbers and great team success when playing with good shooting/solid defensive role players. If everything goes well, the rotation-level Lakers could see positive fantasy hoops outcomes across the board, and the team could make a solid run at hitting various fantasy futures at anywhere from almost-even to plus-money.
So, yes… even with LeBron’s record already in hand, there are in-fact reasons to pay attention to the Lakers moving forward this season.
