NCAA tournament betting preview: Houston favored, Purdue worst ATS team in field

March 15, 2023 ndowd

Houston enters the NCAA tournament as the 6-1 betting favorite. The 6-1 odds are tied for the longest odds for a pretournament favorite since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985. The four No. 1 seeds are the top four betting favorites, though the West appears loaded. Four of the top nine favorites are all in the West.

Odds to win National Championship

Team	Odds	Region
Houston	+600	Midwest
Alabama	+700	South
Kansas	+1000	West
Purdue	+1000	East
Texas	+1200	Midwest
UCLA	+1200	West
Arizona	+1200	South
Gonzaga	+1500	West
UConn	+1500	West

It is the fourth time in that span the favorite has been at least +550. Two of the previous three times, one of the favorites won (Arkansas won at 7-1 in 1994; Villanova won as the +570 favorite in 2018). However, in 2014, Florida entered as the +550 favorite and we saw the biggest pretournament longshot cut down the nets since seeding began in 1979 (UConn: 95-1).

Longest Odds for Men’s Title Favorite

Year	Team	Odds	Result
2023	Houston	+600	??
1994	North Carolina	+600	L, Round of 32
2018	Villanova	+570	Won title
2014	Florida	+550	L, National Semifinals

Houston entered the year tied for the third favorite behind Kentucky and North Carolina. Kentucky ended up getting a No. 6 seed while North Carolina didn’t even make the tournament. Although Houston didn’t enter the season as the favorite, it moved from 10-1 to 8-1 to become the betting favorite just one game into the season, and it never relinquished its position as the betting favorite.

Preseason Favorites to Win Championship

Team	Preseason Odds	Seed	Current Odds
North Carolina	9-1	DNP	??
Kentucky	9-1	+600	L, Round of 32
Houston	10-1	+570	Won title
Gonzaga	10-1	+550	L, National Semifinals

Seven of the past 17 tournaments, the betting favorite has gone onto win it all (last: 2018 Villanova).

Favorites Entering NCAA Tournament

Year	Team	Odds	Reached
2022	Gonzaga	+325	Sweet 16
2021	Gonzaga	+200	Runner-up
2019	Duke	+255	Elite 8
2018	Villanova	+570	Won title
2017	North Carolina	+535	Won title
2016	Kansas	+485	Elite 8
2015	Kentucky	+110	Final Four
2014	3 tied	+550	Best: Final Four
2013	Louisville	+450	Won title (later vacated)
2012	Kentucky	+185	Won title
2011	2 tied	+400	Best: Elite Eight
2010	Kansas	+175	Round of 32
2009	North Carolina	+400	Won title
2008	UCLA	+350	Final Four
2007	Florida	+400	Won title
2006	Duke	+400	Sweet 16
2005	North Carolina	+350	Won title

Twenty-two of the past 30 national champions had single-digit odds entering the tournament. The last team to have double-digit odds to win the NCAA tournament was Villanova in 2016. No. 1 seeds have won five straight titles and 12 of the past 15 titles.

Favorites Entering NCAA Tournament

Year	Team	Odds
2022	1. Kansas	+900
2021	1. Baylor	+500
2019	1. Virginia	+675
2018	1. Villanova (favorites)	+570
2017	1. North Carolina (favorites)	+535
2016	2. Villanova	+1500
2015	1. Duke	+1000
2014	7. UConn	+9500
2013	1. Louisville (favorites)	+450
2012	1. Kentucky (favorites)	+185
2011	3. UConn	+2500
2010	1. Duke	+650

Since seeding began in 1979, only two champions had longer than 30-1 odds (1985 Villanova and 2014 UConn), and only one team had longer than 40-1 odds (2014 UConn).

Biggest Longshots to Win NCAA Tournament

Year	Team	Odds
2014	UConn	95-1
1985	Villanova	35-1
2011	UConn	25-1
1983	NC State	25-1
2006	Florida	20-1
1988	Kansas	20-1
2003	Syracuse	18-1
1997	Arizona	18-1
2016	Villanova	15-1

No. 5 seed Duke is down to 20-1 after winning the ACC tournament. That is the shortest odds of any team seeded 5th or lower in the last 15 NCAA tournaments.

Shortest Odds Entering Tournament for 5 seed or lower

Year	Team	Odds	Reached
2023	5. Duke	20-1	?
2010	5. Michigan State	25-1	Runner-up
2013	5. Wisconsin	28-1	Round of 64
2022	5. Houston	30-1	Elite 8
2022	5. Iowa	30-1	Round of 64
2018	5. Kentucky	30-1	Sweet 16
2009	6. UCLA	30-1	Round of 32
2008	5. Clemson	30-1	Round of 64

Historic upsets

UMBC is the only No. 16 seed to beat a No. 1 seed, but the biggest upset in the 64-team era (since 1985) is by Norfolk State (+21.5) over Missouri in 2012.

Largest NCAA Tournament Upsets Since 1985

Year	Team	Spread	Lost
2012	15. Norfolk State	+21.5	2. Missouri
2018	16. UMBC	+20.5	1. Virginia
1993	15. Santa Clara	+20	2. Arizona
2022	15. Saint Peter’s	+18.5	2. Kentucky
1997	15. Coppin State	+18.5	2. South Carolina
2001	15. Hampton	+17.5	2. Iowa State
1986	14. Little Rock	+17.5	3. Notre Dame

Last year, Saint Peter’s pulled off three straight upsets as at least eight-point underdogs, beating Kentucky in the round of 64 (+18.5), Murray State in the round of 32 (+8) and Purdue in the Sweet 16 (+13). The Purdue upset tied the largest upset after the first weekend.

Biggest Upsets By Round Since 1985

Round	Matchup	Year
Rd of 64	Norfolk St (+21.5) over Missouri	2012
Rd of 32	Rhode Island (+12.5) over Kansas	1998
Sweet 16	Saint Peter’s (+13) over Purdue	2022
	Indiana (+13) over Duke	2002
Elite 8	VCU (+11.5) over Kansas	2011
Final Four	Duke (+9.5) over UNLV	1991
Championship	UConn (+9.5) over Duke	1999

Notable first-round lines

One double-digit seed is currently favored in its first-round matchup, as Utah State is a 1-point favorite over Missouri. It is the 11th time in the past 12 tournaments that at least one double-digit seed is favored in the round of 64 (only exception: 2019). Double-digit seeds that are favored in the round of 64 are 14-5 outright and 12-7 ATS in the previous 10 NCAA tournaments (2012-22).

Point Spreads for 10-13 Seeds

10 Seeds	11 Seeds	12 Seeds	13 Seeds
Utah State (-1)	Providence (+4)	Drake (+2.5)	Kent State (+4)
Boise State (+1.5)	NC State (+5.5)	VCU (+4)	Furman (+5.5)
USC (+2)		Charleston (+5)	Louisiana (+10.5)
Penn State (+3)		Oral Roberts (+6.5)	Iona (+9)

Indiana is only a 4-point favorite over Kent State. No. 4 seeds favored by four or fewer points against No. 13 seeds are 1-3 outright since 2000.

Smallest Spreads in 4-13 Matchup since 2000

Year	Team	Spread	Opponent	Result
2022	4. Providence	-2.5	13. South Dakota State	Won
2010	4. Vanderbilt	-2.5	13. Murray State	Lost
2003	4. Dayton	-2.5	13. Tulsa	Lost
2023	4. Indiana	-4	13. Kent State	?
2019	4. Kansas State	-4	13. UC Irvine	Lost

Marquette is the smallest favorite for any No. 2 seed since 2015. Texas (-13.5) and Arizona (-14) are also relatively small favorites for 2-seeds. Overall, the four 2-seeds are favored by an average of 14.1 points, which is the smallest average spread for No. 2 seeds since 2006 (-12.9).

Smallest Spreads for 2 vs. 15 Since 2013

Year	Team	Opponent	Spread	Covered?
2015	Kansas	New Mexico State	-10	Yes
2023	Marquette	Vermont	-13.5	?
2023	Texas	New Mexico State	-13.5	?
2021	Iowa	Grand Canyon	-13.5	No
2016	Xavier	Weber State	-13.5	Yes
2013	Georgetown (lost outright)	Florida Gulf Coast	-14	No
2023	Arizona	Weber State	-14	?
2018	Cincinnati	Georgia State	-14	Yes
2014	Kansas	Eastern Kentucky	-14	No
2014	Wisconsin	American	-14	Yes
2013	Miami	Pacific	-14	Yes

As for the No. 3 seeds, Kansas State is the smallest favorite, laying 8.5 points against Montana State. Since 2015, No. 3 seeds that are single-digit favorites are 2-5 ATS with three outright losses.

Shortest Odds to Win Women’s Basketball Championship

Year	Team	Odds	Won Title?
2016	UConn	-900	Yes
2018	UConn	-600	No
2017	UConn	-450	No
2015	UConn	-450	Yes
2023	South Carolina	-180	?

Seed matchup notes

1 vs. 16

2 vs. 15

In the previous 10 tournaments (2012-22), No. 15 seeds are 6-34 outright against No. 2 seeds, including back-to-back years with an upset. Last year, Saint Peter’s beat Kentucky and in 2021, Oral Roberts beat Ohio State. Saint Peter’s reached the Elite Eight and Oral Roberts reached the Sweet 16.

3 vs. 14

No. 3 seeds are 8-4 ATS against No. 14 seeds over the past three tournaments.
In the previous five tournaments, No. 3 seeds are 19-1 outright against No. 14 seeds (only upset: 2021 Abilene Christian beat Texas).

4 vs. 13

No. 13 seeds are 12-4 ATS against No. 4 seeds over the past four tournaments.
Last year, all four No. 4 seeds won for the first time since 2017. From 2018-21, 4-seeds were just 7-5 outright.

5 vs. 12

Since 2013, No. 12 seeds are 22-13-1 ATS against No. 5 seeds (2-2 ATS in each of the past two seasons).
At least one No. 12 seed has won outright in the first round in 32 of the 37 seasons since the tournament expanded in 1985 (exceptions: 2018, 2015, 2007, 2000, 1988).
No. 12 seeds are 8-4 ATS and 6-6 outright in this round in the past three tournaments.

6 vs. 11

Since 2009, No. 11 seeds are 33-19 ATS against No. 6 seeds (27-25 outright).
Since 2016, No. 11 seeds are 14-10 outright and 16-8 ATS against 6-seeds.
At least one No. 11 seed has won a round of 64 game in 17 straight tournaments (last time without win: 2004).
Multiple 11 seeds have won a round of 64 game in 10 of the past 12 tournaments.

7 vs. 10

8 vs. 9

Conference notes

ACC teams are 15-34 ATS in the round of 64 since 2015.
Big Ten teams are 45-29 ATS in the round of 64 since 2011.
The Mountain West is 0-7 ATS in the round of 64 in the past three tournaments. It is 7-19 ATS since 2011 and 3-12 ATS since 2014. Mountain West teams are 6-15 ATS as favorites in the round of 64 and 8-19 ATS as favorites in any round (12-15 outright). Mountain West favorites are 0-5 outright since 2018 in any round (0-4 in round of 64).
The MAC has covered six straight round of 64 games with three wins in the past four years. MAC teams are 17-7 ATS in the round of 64 since 1999.
ASUN teams are 6-2 ATS in the round of 64 since 2014 (0-2 ATS past two seasons).
Big Sky teams are 3-12 ATS in the first round since 2007, 2-9 ATS since 2011, and 1-6 ATS since 2015.
Horizon League teams are 2-7 ATS in the round of 64 since 2012.

Conference ATS over the past five tournaments

No. 1 seeds and No. 2 seeds ATS in opening games

Nos. 11-14 seeds straight up and ATS past 10 and past five

Big 12 ATS past five years and straight up

ATS: 44-38-1 (53.7%)
Outright: 53-30 (63.9%)

— Kyle Soppe

Coaching notes (all for NCAA tournament)

Notable good coaches ATS

Andy Enfield (USC): 10-2 ATS (9-1 ATS as underdog)
Sean Miller (Xavier): 18-11-1 ATS (.621) (8-1 ATS as underdog)
Matt Painter (Purdue): 19-12 ATS (.613) (11-3 ATS in round of 64)
Jeff Capel (Pittsburgh): 5-2 ATS (4-0 ATS as favorite)
Johnny Jones (Texas Southern): 5-2 ATS
Penny Hardaway (Memphis): 2-0 ATS
Chris Jans (Mississippi State): 3-1 ATS

Notable bad coaches ATS

Jamie Dixon (TCU): 9-17 ATS (.346)
Rick Barnes (Tennessee): 19-29-1 ATS (.396) (16-25-1 ATS as favorite)
Eric Musselman (Arkansas): 4-8-1 ATS
Bobby Hurley (Arizona State): 1-3 ATS
Randy Bennett (Saint Mary’s): 5-8 ATS (3-2 ATS as favorite, 2-6 ATS as underdog)

Notable splits

Bob Huggins (West Virginia): 27-18 ATS as favorite, 3-10-1 ATS as underdog.
Shaka Smart (Marquette) 1-6 ATS past seven games (started career 8-1 ATS).
1-3 ATS as favorite, 8-3 ATS as underdog, 0-1 as pick’em.
Fran McCaffery (Iowa): 7-4 ATS as underdog, 1-5 ATS as favorite.
Shaka Smart (Marquette) has lost six straight first-round matchups, including going 0-4 since he left VCU. He is 1-6 ATS in his past seven NCAA tournament games after starting his career 8-1 ATS in the NCAA tournament.

Best/worst ATS teams in field

Fifteen teams in the field have covered at least 60% of their games this season, led by Pittsburgh, which has the second-highest ATS mark in Division I.

Pittsburgh: 22-10-1 ATS (.688)
Florida Atlantic: 21-10-1 ATS (.677)
Kennesaw State: 21-10 ATS (.677)
Texas A&M: 23-11 ATS (.676)
Kent State: 20-10-2 ATS (.667)
Marquette: 22-12 ATS (.647)
Kansas State: 20-11-1 ATS (.645)
UC Santa Barbara: 20-11-1 ATS (.645)
UConn: 21-12 ATS (.636)
Utah State: 21-12-1 ATS (.636)
Nevada: 19-11-1 ATS (.633)
Maryland: 20-12-1 ATS (.625)
Penn State: 21-13-1 ATS (.618)
Montana State: 19-12-1 ATS (.613)
Vermont: 19-12-1 ATS (.613)

On the flip side, there is only one team in the field that has covered less than 60% of its games this season — Purdue (13-20-1 ATS, .394).

Notable BPI values

Houston Cougars (No. 1 seed – Midwest)

+600 to win NCAA tournament (BPI chance: 31.6%)
-270 to reach Sweet 16 (BPI chance: 84.7%)
+130 to win Midwest Region (BPI chance: 58.1%)

Tennessee Volunteers (No. 4 seed – East)

25-1 to win NCAA tournament (BPI chance: 13.2%)
-130 to reach Sweet 16 (BPI chance: 76.0%)
+400 to win East Region (BPI chance: 41.7%)
10.5-point favorites vs. Louisiana (BPI line: 18.0)

Alabama Crimson Tide (No. 1 seed – South)

+700 to win NCAA tournament (BPI chance: 17.5%)
-260 to reach Sweet 16 (BPI chance: 79.7%)
+160 to win South Region (BPI chance: 49.9%)

UCLA Bruins (No. 2 seed – West)

South Carolina heavy favorite on women’s side

Conference ATS (over past five tourneys)

Conference	Cover%	ATS W	ATS L	Push
Pac-12	63.3%	31	18
Big-12	53.7%	44	38	1
Big East	52.8%	28	25
Big 10	48.8%	41	43
ACC	46.7%	42	48	1
SEC	43.8%	32	41	2

South Carolina is the fifth odds-on favorite to win the women’s basketball championship in the past eight tournaments. The last two both lost as UConn failed to win in 2018 or 2017 as -600 and -450 favorites respectively.

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