NHL playoff watch: Can the Capitals or Sabres get a wild-card spot?

We are officially less than one month away from the end of the regular season. The Boston Bruins have clinched a playoff spot (and are well on their way to the Presidents’ Trophy), while the San Jose Sharks have been mathematically eliminated from playoff contention after Tuesday night’s games.

Some playoff spots remain up for grabs.

The wild-card spots in the East are currently held by the Pittsburgh Penguins and New York Islanders, but a handful of teams are lurking. Two of those teams, the Washington Capitals and Buffalo Sabres, will square off tonight in D.C. FiveThirtyEight gives the Sabres a 16% chance of making the playoffs, and the Caps an 11% chance.

It’s not quite a “loser leaves town match” — there are over a dozen games left for each club — but a loss would certainly place another hurdle in the path to the postseason. The Sabres have won both games in the season series, 5-4 in OT on Jan. 3 and 7-4 on Feb. 26. Will it be a similar result tonight?

As we enter the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check in on all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2023 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via FiveThirtyEight.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s games
Last night’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Boston Bruins vs. WC2 New York Islanders
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3 Tampa Bay Lightning
M1 Carolina Hurricanes vs. WC1 Pittsburgh Penguins
M2 New Jersey Devils vs. M3 New York Rangers

Western Conference

C1 Dallas Stars vs. WC1 Seattle Kraken
C2 Minnesota Wild vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche
P1 Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC2 Winnipeg Jets
P2 Los Angeles Kings vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers

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Wednesday’s games

Note: All times Eastern. All games not on ESPN, TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).

Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs 7 p.m. (TNT)
Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals, 7 p.m.
Minnesota Wild at St. Louis Blues, 9:30 p.m. (TNT)
New York Islanders at Anaheim Ducks, 10 p.m.

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Tuesday’s scoreboard

Watch “In the Crease” on ESPN+ for highlights from every game.

Carolina Hurricanes 5, Winnipeg Jets 3
New York Rangers 5, Washington Capitals 3
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, New Jersey Devils 1
Vegas Golden Knights 5, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Montreal Canadiens 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Nashville Predators 2, Detroit Red Wings 1
Chicago Blackhawks 6, Boston Bruins 3
Edmonton Oilers 6, Ottawa Senators 3
Arizona Coyotes 4, Calgary Flames 3 (OT)
Vancouver Canucks 5, Dallas Stars 2
Los Angeles Kings 5, New York Islanders 2
Columbus Blue Jackets 6, San Jose Sharks 5 (OT)

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Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 105
Regulation wins: 43
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 131
Next game: @ WPG (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 100%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 88
Regulation wins: 34
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 16
Points pace: 109
Next game: vs. COL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 14
Points pace: 104
Next game: @ NJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 89
Next game: vs. MTL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 46%
Tragic number: 27

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 88
Next game: @ WSH (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 16%
Tragic number: 27

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 86
Next game: vs. COL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 4%
Tragic number: 24

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 85
Next game: vs. COL (Saturday)
Playoff chances: 2%
Tragic number: 23

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 72
Next game: @ FLA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 12

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Metropolitan Division

Points: 96
Regulation wins: 33
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 16
Points pace: 119
Next game: @ TOR (Friday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 94
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 115
Next game: vs. TB (Thursday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 86
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 15
Points pace: 105
Next game: vs. PIT (Thursday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 96
Next game: @ NYR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 80%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 13
Points pace: 90
Next game: @ ANA (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 43%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 86
Next game: vs. BUF (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 11%
Tragic number: 24

Points: 59
Regulation wins: 22
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 72
Next game: vs. BUF (Friday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 13

Points: 49
Regulation wins: 15
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 61
Next game: @ LA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 5

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Central Division

Points: 87
Regulation wins: 31
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 105
Next game: @ EDM (Thursday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 84
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 15
Points pace: 103
Next game: @ STL (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 97%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: C3
Games left: 17
Points pace: 101
Next game: @ TOR (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 79
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 95
Next game: vs. BOS (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 67%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 17
Points pace: 95
Next game: vs. CHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 40%
Tragic number: 30

Points: 63
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 78
Next game: vs. MIN (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 16

Points: 61
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 74
Next game: vs. VAN (Thursday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 10

Points: 52
Regulation wins: 15
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 64
Next game: @ NSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 3

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Pacific Division

Points: 90
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: P1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 109
Next game: vs. CGY (Thursday)
Playoff chances: >99%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 87
Regulation wins: 29
Playoff position: P2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 105
Next game: vs. CBJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 98%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 82
Regulation wins: 35
Playoff position: P3
Games left: 14
Points pace: 99
Next game: vs. DAL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 97%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 81
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 15
Points pace: 99
Next game: @ SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 88%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 89
Next game: @ VGK (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 14%
Tragic number: 23

Points: 63
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 16
Points pace: 78
Next game: @ ARI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 16

Points: 54
Regulation wins: 12
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 66
Next game: vs. NYI (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: <1%
Tragic number: 5

Points: 51
Regulation wins: 14
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 62
Next game: vs. SEA (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 0%
Tragic number: E

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Race for the No. 1 pick

The NHL uses a draft lottery to determine the order at the top of the first round, so the team that finishes in last place is not guaranteed the No. 1 selection. As of 2021, a team might move up a maximum of 10 spots if it wins the lottery, so only 11 teams are eligible for the draw for the No. 1 pick. Full details on the process can be found here. Sitting No. 1 on the draft board for this summer is Connor Bedard, who has been lauded as a generational talent.

Points: 47
Regulation wins: 15

Points: 51
Regulation wins: 14

Points: 52
Regulation wins: 15

Points: 54
Regulation wins: 12

Points: 59
Regulation wins: 22

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 18

Points: 61
Regulation wins: 18

Points: 63
Regulation wins: 18

Points: 63
Regulation wins: 21

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 26

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 25

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 28

Points: 74
Regulation wins: 24

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 25

Notes on traded picks impacting the top 16: