NFC East roundtable: Which division rival will give the Eagles the biggest run for their money?

Last season, the NFC East was the best division in football. The Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants made the playoffs and the Washington Commanders finished 8-8-1. The Cowboys made it to the divisional round and the Eagles, who won the division, made it to the Super Bowl.

Expectations remain high in 2023, and to remind everyone: There has not been a repeat division champ since the Eagles ruled from 2001 to 2004.

But the Eagles are considered a Super Bowl favorite and signed Jalen Hurts to a mega-extension. The Cowboys added veterans with championship experience in cornerback Stephon Gilmore and wide receiver Brandin Cooks with Mike McCarthy, a title-winning coach, taking over as the playcaller. The Giants re-signed quarterback Daniel Jones and defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence while adding pieces for coach Brian Daboll’s offense. The Commanders are moving on from Daniel Snyder as owner, and while they are going with 2022 fifth-rounder Sam Howell at quarterback, there is an excitement with new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy.

With the offseason programs complete and training camp a few weeks away, ESPN’s NFC East writers answer the biggest questions looming.

How big is the gap between Philadelphia and the rest of the division?

Eagles: Not as wide as last season. The Eagles still have the best chance of making a splash. Per ESPN’s Football Power Index, they have a 25.5% chance of reaching the Super Bowl compared to 13% for the Cowboys, 4.2% for the Giants and 2% for the Commanders. But they lost five defensive starters as well as their offensive and defensive coordinators this offseason, and they have one of the most difficult schedules in the league (their opponent win percentage of 0.566 is tops in the NFL). Their division rivals could all take a step forward, whereas it wouldn’t be a total shock if the Eagles took a half step back, particularly if their good fortune on the health front takes a turn for the worse. — Tim McManus

Giants: The Cowboys might think they were close, but the Giants know they weren’t. Daboll made it abundantly clear at the NFL’s annual meetings when he interrupted a reporter who was talking about their 2022 success. “Yeah, got smoked in the playoffs,” he said — referencing their 31-point loss to Philly in the divisional round. The Eagles won all three meetings last season and had two first-round picks in the April draft. The Giants’ roster is better after adding tight end Darren Waller, some wide receiver depth and a competent inside linebacker in Bobby Okereke, but the gap separating them from the Eagles was so massive last season that it’s still significant. — Jordan Raanan

Commanders: There’s a definite gap between the Eagles and Commanders at quarterback and the offensive line. Jalen Hurts‘ ascension behind his line allowed the Eagles’ offense to become one of the NFL’s best. But defensively? Washington is right there — the Commanders ranked ahead of the Eagles in points per game allowed and one spot behind them in yards per game. The Commanders have good offensive skill talent. They need Sam Howell to provide consistent quarterback play and for the line to be better. Washington’s total QBR last season was 39.1, good for 26th in the NFL. Philadelphia ranked third at 63.4 (the top 11 teams in QBR finished with a winning record, 10 made the postseason). That’s the gap that must be closed for Washington to challenge for the NFC East title. — John Keim

Cowboys: The gap might not have been widened much this offseason despite the Eagles’ addition of more Georgia defenders in Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith in the first round. The Cowboys lost to the Eagles in Philly last season with Cooper Rush at quarterback and beat them at AT&T Stadium upon Dak Prescott‘s return. The Cowboys made smart additions with Gilmore and Cooks that will make two of their better players, Trevon Diggs and CeeDee Lamb, even better. The Eagles are the favorites, but the Cowboys are right there with them. — Todd Archer

Who will win the NFC East?

The Eagles win the NFC East if the new wave of offensive and defensive line talent rises to the occasion. With defensive tackle Javon Hargrave exiting for the San Francisco 49ers and Fletcher Cox (32) and Brandon Graham (35) in the twilight of their careers, it falls to rookie first-round pick Jalen Carter, second-year DT Jordan Davis and third-year defensive tackle Milton Williams to pick up some of the slack. Second-year offensive lineman Cam Jurgens, meanwhile, is transitioning from center to right guard in an attempt to fill the hole left by Isaac Seumalo. Philadelphia needs either he or Alabama rookie Tyler Steen to lock down that job to ensure Hurts is operating from a clean pocket. — McManus

The Giants win the NFC East if quarterback Daniel Jones takes another step forward in Year 2 under Daboll and offensive coordinator Mike Kafka while Waller and some of the Giants’ top offensive weapons stay healthy. A more explosive offense (specifically the passing attack) will at least give New York a chance to improve on their 1-4-1 record in the division during the 2022 regular season. The Giants scored more than 20 points just once in seven games against NFC East opponents last season, including the playoffs. That was a 22-point outburst in a 26-point blowout loss to the Eagles. That’s not going to get it done. But if this new offense with an improved Jones and better and healthier weapons can be a top-half-of-the-league unit, look out. It’s not entirely inconceivable either. — Raanan

The Commanders win the NFC East if the defense plays as it could — and should — all season. The defense has finished in the top 10 in yards and points in two of the past three seasons. But they need to start stronger. Last year, for example, the defense ranked 19th in yards and 18th in points in the first six games. But over the final 12 weeks they ranked sixth in points and first in yards and third down conversions. They’ve added a healthy Chase Young (limited to three games in 2022) at end and a potential playmaking corner in first-rounder Emmanuel Forbes. If the defense provides the backbone, it allows the offense to grow under new coordinator Eric Bieniemy and Howell, who has one NFL start. — Keim

The Cowboys win the NFC East if Dak Prescott moves away from the interception issue that he could not shake last season. He tied for the most in the NFL with 15 picks despite starting only 12 games. With coach Mike McCarthy as the playcaller, taking over for Kellen Moore, let’s remember how Aaron Rodgers rarely turned the ball over in their time together with the Green Bay Packers. The Cowboys will run a combination of McCarthy’s West Coast offense and what the Cowboys have run over the past 15 years with Prescott calling it the Texas Coast offense. Even without running back Ezekiel Elliott, this should be an offense that ranks near the top of the league with a defense that has talent at every level. — Archer

State of QB in two words

Eagles: Locked in

Hurts and the Eagles agreed to a five-year, $255 million extension in April. “Same approach, same goals, same dreams,” Hurts said when asked how the megadeal affected him. Hurts made huge strides last season, particularly as a passer, guiding Philly to a 14-1 record as the starter while finishing second in the MVP voting to Patrick Mahomes. “He’s so coachable, he just keeps getting better, and he keeps getting better, and he keeps getting better,” said coach Nick Sirianni. “I do, I see another jump in everything that he’s done with accuracy, with the decision making.” — McManus

Giants: Got paid

Jones’ bank account is flush. He’s guaranteed $82 million over the next two seasons. That’s a lot of money. With that kind of financial investment comes increased expectations. Jones can’t be throwing just 15 touchdown passes this season, even if he’s again top-10 in QBR. More is expected from the Giants’ quarterback now that he’s been paid. He needs to put up bigger numbers while again leading his team to the playoffs in order to win over the remainder of the doubters. It’s not going to be easy. — Raanan

Commanders: Latest hope

Introducing a new starting quarterback is almost a yearly occurrence for Washington, with statements about why — this time — it’ll be different. Then it isn’t. That’s why the Commanders will have their sixth different opening day starting quarterback since 2017, the last year Kirk Cousins played for them. The latest symbol of hope: Howell. There are reasons to be optimistic about him: He’s smart, has a good arm, is mobile and makes good decisions. He has improved quite a bit since the start of training camp last year. Players believe in him. The big question, though, is how the inevitable growing pains of a young quarterback impact the offense. Do they have enough around him to still win as he develops? — Keim

Cowboys: It’s time

Prescott is entering his eighth season as the starter. The offense revolves around what he likes. He has a top defense. He is signed through 2024, but if he doesn’t get the Cowboys to at least a championship game, will the organization give him another massive contract? — Archer

What’s the biggest worry?

Eagles: Up the middle defensively. Both starting safeties (C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Marcus Epps) and linebackers (T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White) departed in free agency. The front office made a couple of additions, including safety Terrell Edmunds and linebacker Nicholas Morrow, but the biggest key might be whether second-year linebacker Nakobe Dean can step in and serve as the defensive glue like he did in college for those dominant Georgia defenses. At safety, keep an eye on rookie Sydney Brown, who has the building buzzing with excitement about his potential. — McManus

Giants: It’s entirely possible for the Giants to be a better team but finish with a worse record than last year’s 9-7-1. The schedule for the entire division is harder. Instead of playing the lowly AFC South, they have to run through the gauntlet that is the AFC East. The Giants also have prime-time games on the road against the Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers. This New York team still has holes (offensive line, secondary depth), some of the same ones that better teams like the Eagles and Cowboys exposed last season. We could see that more frequently this season against overall stronger competition. — Raanan

Commanders: The offense fails to produce — again. Washington’s offense hasn’t finished in the top 10 in either points or yards since 2016 and hasn’t finished in the top 10 of both since 2012. In other words, it’s been bad, folks. There’s optimism because they believe in Howell, they like their skill talent and they saw signs of tight end Logan Thomas returning to the effectiveness he showed before his December 2021 ACL injury. They love what Bieniemy has added; energy, but also discipline and, they say, creative ways to get playmakers the ball. But there are questions. How good will Howell be — and when? Will the offensive line, with new starters at four spots, be more effective? In Year 4 under coach Ron Rivera, and with a new owner, Washington can’t afford a slow start. — Keim

Cowboys: Health is too easy of an answer. Every team will battle injuries. Will they miss Ezekiel Elliott? Possibly. He remained one of the best short-yardage and goal-line backs, something Tony Pollard is not really built for. Could it be kicker? We know there will be close games. The Cowboys played seven one-score games last season. Having a reliable kicker is a must. They are likely to add a kicker before training camp starts, but right now they’re going with Tristan Vizcaino, who has made 11 of 12 field goal attempts with four teams over three seasons. McCarthy likes to go for it on fourth down, but he also had Brett Maher make 9 of 11 tries from 50-yards plus last season. — Archer