ESPN Eliminator Challenge Week 12: Strategy, advice and picks

November 22, 2023 ndowd

Nov 22, 2023, 09:00 AM ET

The Commanders’ upset loss against the Giants was the biggest shock of Week 11, knocking out 10 percent of remaining Eliminator Challenge entrants. The Lions (12 percent) came back late to beat the Bears, but the rest of the chalk picks mostly won.

The Commanders were the top pick in this article last week, the first time that team has taken a loss. However, if you have been tailing this column all season, they were already used in Week 1, and with the Texans winning, the column picks survived another week.

Heading into Week 12, this contest continues to be a war of attrition. Four teams are favored by at least nine points, and those four are the best options this week (Dallas Cowboys, Miami Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs, Detroit Lions). However, many contestants have already used those four teams, and the Cowboys, Dolphins and Chiefs all have several more appealing games down the road to consider saving them.

Outside of the big four, three of the biggest favorites this week who are widely available are the New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans and Minnesota Vikings. All three are 3.5-point favorites at ESPN BET. However, despite their combined 5-15 record, Mike Clay’s model likes the Titans as a pick, while ESPN Analytics’ model likes the Patriots.

Based on the path of the top picks in this article this season, the Titans will be the top pick among teams available, while the Dallas Cowboys are the top pick among all available teams.

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Thursday 4:30 p.m. ET

This is the highest win probability in any Cowboys game the rest of the season. Mike Clay views it as tied for the most lopsided matchup the rest of the season, while ESPN Analytics ranks it fourth. At this point, so few Eliminator Challenge participants have the Cowboys left, so if they are still available for you, this is probably the best chance to use them.

The Cowboys have feasted on bad teams at home all season, going 4-0 with all four wins by at least 20 points, and the Commanders certainly fit that category as ESPN Analytics’ seventh-worst team.

ESPN BET line: Cowboys -11
Mike Clay chance to win: 89%
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 85%

Carolina Panthers at Tennessee Titans
Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
Sunday 1 p.m. ET

Fading the Panthers in Eliminator Challenge has been a profitable strategy all season, and that will continue this week. The Panthers are 1-9 outright and 0-5 on the road this season and the ESPN Analytics model views them as the second-worst team in the NFL.

Mike Clay’s model rates the Titans as the third-biggest favorites on paper this week, only behind the Cowboys and Dolphins. The Titans currently are not favored in another game this season according to Clay, so in large groups that will likely last all 18 weeks, trying to sneak the Titans through this week could pay dividends down the road.

ESPN BET line: Titans -3.5
Mike Clay chance to win: 76%
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 61%

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Friday 3 p.m. ET

The Jets’ rating continues to freefall as their stretch of offensive futility continues. The Jets have not scored more than one offensive touchdown in a game since Week 5. Now they turn to Tim Boyle, who has a career touchdown-to-interception ratio of 3-to-9. On the other side, the Dolphins have the second-most efficient offense in the NFL, and their defense is starting to hit its stride.

If you still have the Dolphins available, you essentially have a four-week stretch to use them, as their next four games are against the Jets and Commanders on the road, followed by the Titans and Jets at home. Home favorites of at least a touchdown have burned Eliminator Challenge players all season, but that trend is unlikely to be predictive of future outcomes like this one.