Win the Weekend: Betting tips for Week 14 in the NFL

December 9, 2023 ndowd

Want to know the latest trends, matchups and injury news in football? We’ve got you. Want to know where the public has money this week? We’ve got you. Want to know which teams to play, whom to roster in DFS or whom to pick in your Eliminator pool? We’ve got you there, too. Here’s everything you need to know as you prepare for your fantasy football matchups and potential bets on the games this weekend. Odds by ESPN BET.

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College Football

David Purdum’s Action Report

A streak of 16 consecutive unders in Army–Navy games was snapped last season in the Black Knights’ 20-17 win that eclipsed the 32-point total, the lowest in the rivalry in over a decade. The total on Saturday’s Army-Navy game is even lower. It was sitting at 27.5 at ESPN BET on Thursday, which would be tied for the second-lowest total on any game in ESPN Stats & Information’s database. Only this year’s Iowa-Nebraska game (25.5) is lower. The early action on the Army-Navy total this week was divided, with DraftKings reporting 54% of the bets on the over, while 62% of the money wagered was on the under. The game will be played at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts, where forecasts were calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with light winds.
The early betting action on the Alabama Crimson Tide–Michigan Wolverines playoff semifinal has been lopsided on the underdog Crimson Tide. On Thursday, FanDuel and DraftKings were each reporting upwards of 87% of the money that had been wagered on the Rose Bowl was on Alabama. Michigan opened as high as a 2.5-point favorite, but the line dropped to -1.5 early in the week. Bettors also were backing the underdog in the other semifinal between Washington and favored Texas, but the early action hasn’t been as lopsided as it has on Alabama. At DraftKings, the underdog Huskies had attracted approximately 66% of the money that had been wagered on the game’s point spread. Texas was a consensus 4-point favorite.

Seth Walder’s biggest edges from ESPN Analytics

Army Black Knights (-3) vs. Navy Midshipmen: This is really a stay-away game because FPI is awfully close to the market. But with only game this weekend, if you’re looking to bet a side, the model would lean toward Army, which it makes roughly a 4-point favorite instead of 3. Army ranked 95th in total efficiency this season; Navy ranked 117th.
Texas Longhorns to win the national championship (+275): This is another very narrow value, but if you’re looking to pick a team to win it all, FPI prices the Longhorns at +248. Though the third-best team in the playoff, Texas (FPI rank: 7) has the advantage of facing by far the worst team in Washington (FPI rank: 13), which makes for an easy semifinal.

NFL

Is Sunday’s game vs. Eagles a must-win for Cowboys?

Jeff Saturday and Domonique Foxworth stress the importance of Sunday’s NFC East battle vs. the Eagles for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys.

Stephania Bell’s injury update.

Matt Bowen’s matchups to exploit

Jordan Love‘s production on play-action concepts: In Love’s past two games, wins over the Lions and Chiefs, he completed 21 of 26 passes for 287 yards and two touchdowns on play-action concepts. Look for Matt LaFleur to dial up more play-action throws (especially on early downs) Monday night versus the Giants, which will create schemed voids for Love to boost his passing totals.
Zach Moss vs. the Bengals’ run front: Moss only averaged 2.7 yards per carry versus the Titans in Week 13, but he did see 19 rushing attempts. With a better matchup this Sunday against a Bengals defense allowing 4.8 yards per carry, the second most in the league, I expect a heavy-volume day for Moss. And that includes touches inside the low red zone.
For more breakdowns, check out Matt Bowen’s Film Room.

Mike Clay’s Eliminator Challenge advice

Houston Texans (at New York Jets ): With five weeks to play, we still have a few standout teams left to use (Chiefs, Eagles, 49ers), but we have better opportunities to use each of them in the final month. This week, we have a couple surging teams to choose from in the Texans (at the Jets) and Packers (at the Giants), and you could really go either way on this (both opened as 6.5-point favorites). I have Houston (83%) with a better win probability than Green Bay (74%), so the Texans get the nod, but pick your poison!
Be sure to also check out Clay’s Eliminator Challenge cheat sheet (updated weekly) and find other tips for Week 14 here.

Al Zeidenfeld’s DFS plays

Like most weeks this season, the biggest values on DraftKings are at running back. Zack Moss ($5,900), Joe Mixon ($6,100), Bijan Robinson ($6,200) are all too cheap, and even Christian McCaffrey ($9,200) is projecting to be a very good point-per-dollar value at his lofty price. Wrapping a double stack and bring back players around the value running back is a great way to get contrarian for tournaments, with 49ers doubles built around Brock Purdy‘s ($6,500) efficiency or Bengals stacks leaning on Jake Browning ($5,200) and Ja’Marr Chase‘s ($7,600) combined discount are routes that I want to lean on this week.
More DFS plays here.

Seth Walder’s biggest edges from ESPN Analytics

T.J. Edwards over 3.5 assists (+105): If you’re looking for an obscure prop with value to bet, look no further. Edwards has gone over this line in eight of 12 games this season and is facing the run-heavy Lions, who will likely be leading (and thus running more). All of that works into the overs favor, and I forecast 4.5 assisted tackles for the Chicago Bears linebacker.
Jalen Hurts over 0.5 interceptions (-120): Hurts’ interception rate is slightly higher than average this season. The Dallas Cowboys defense has recorded 13 interceptions (third most) and the Philadelphia Eagles are 3.5-point underdogs. It’s surprising, given who we’re talking about, but if you put those facts together, a pick is more likely than not. My model prices the over at -137.

David Purdum’s Action Report

The point spread on the Buffalo Bills–Kansas City Chiefs game opened as high as Kansas City -3.5 on Sunday. But the line quickly came down after the Chiefs’ prime time loss to the Packers. “Some Bills money has pushed it to -1.5,” Chris Fargis, senior director of trading risk at Fanatics Sportsbook, told ESPN. “Since the number has settled there, we have seen balanced betting on both sides.”
Weather is expected to impact multiple games Sunday. High winds and rain are in the forecast for Cleveland, where the Cleveland Browns host the Jacksonville Jaguars. The total on the game opened as high 40 but dropped quickly after Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence injured his ankle in loss to the Bengals on Monday. With both teams potentially starting backup quarterbacks, on top of the weather, the total was down to a consensus 30.5 as of Thursday. Additional games with potential inclement weather include: Houston Texans at New York Jets. Rain is expected in New York, with southeast winds of 19 mph. The total had been as high as 39 earlier in the week but was sitting at a consensus 33 as of Thursday. Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore may feature the worst weather of any game Sunday. Forecasts are calling for 94% chance of rain with 20 mph winds blowing from the southeast. The total has come down from as high as 45 to as low as 39.5 on Thursday.
The line on the Philadelphia Eagles-Dallas Cowboys game ticked up off the key number of 3 early in the week. Dallas was a consensus 3.5-point favorite as of Thursday, with sportsbooks charging increased vig (-115 or -120) to bet the underdog Eagles.

Anita Marks’ NFL confidence pool picks

Carolina Panthers +5 (at New Orleans Saints): The Saints are 0-5 ATS at home, and Jameis Winston is expected to start against a good Panthers defense — with a new coaching staff. Carolina is finding success in its run game and will keep this game close.
Houston Texans -3 (at New York Jets): The Jets are going back to Zach Wilson at QB, which is not an upgrade, and they play poorly at home. The Texans will stack the box and force Wilson to make plays — which he will not.

Tyler Fulghum’s Pigskin Pick’em plays

Home teams were just 3-10 ATS in Week 13. In many cases, those home squads were the underdog, but still — just a 1-6 SU and ATS record for home ‘dogs last week — that’s pretty alarming. I’m going to bank on a bounceback for the home teams across the league this week. Of the 15 games we’ll see this week, I’m taking the home team (regardless of points) to win it outright in 12 of those games. Four of those teams are underdogs. Good luck in Week 14 of Pigskin Pick’em!

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