ESPN Eliminator Challenge Week 15: Strategy, advice and picks

December 14, 2023 ndowd

Dec 13, 2023, 12:00 PM ET

After 13 weeks of surviving, the dream for a perfect season in this column is officially dead after the Pittsburgh Steelers fell on “Thursday Night Football” against the New England Patriots.

Week 15 will be the last instance of this column this season, as many Eliminator Challenge leagues have been decided, thanks in part to the past two weeks. Six favorites of at least 3.5 points lost for the first time in a single week since Week 8 of 2021. Underdogs had their second winning record of the season last week.

This week, three teams have at least an 80% chance to win according to Mike Clay’s model – the 49ers, Dolphins and Rams. The Rams and Dolphins are the two clear choices based on their future schedules. The Dolphins would be the best choice as their last three games are against the Cowboys, Ravens and Bills, and the vast majority of people have already selected them.

After those two, you can go a number of directions. The Chiefs and 49ers are the biggest favorites, but both hold a lot of future value in the final three weeks. Based on Mike Clay’s model, the most optimal remaining path would be Dolphins-Packers-49ers-Cowboys. Removing the Dolphins, 49ers and Cowboys, it would be Rams-Packers-Bills-Ravens. With just four games left, you should map out a plan to make sure you have quality picks available in each remaining week.

Lastly, if you have made it this far, congratulations and enjoy the ride.

Top picks this week:

Click here to download Mike Clay’s Eliminator Cheat Sheet, updated weekly.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

As long as Tyreek Hill plays, this is the clear top choice. This is the last opportunity to use the Dolphins, and so few entries have the Dolphins available. That gives you a chance at a high-leverage team with a high chance to win. The Jets played well last week against the Texans, but it’s highly questionable if the Zach Wilson-led offense can put together back-to-back strong offensive games for the first time all season.

Odds by ESPN BET: Dolphins -8.5 (-450 moneyline)
Mike Clay chance to win: 85%
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 80%

Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Rams
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

The Commanders have quickly joined the list of teams to fade in Eliminator Challenge every time they are on the road. They are now the fourth-worst team in the NFL based on ESPN Analytics after back-to- back losses by at least 30 points. Meanwhile, the Rams are quietly the eighth-best team in the NFL going forward in ESPN Analytics’ model with a healthy Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams and Cooper Kupp. The Rams are only 6.5-point favorites, but both Mike Clay’s model and ESPN Analytics see value in the Rams at that number and in Eliminator Challenge.

Odds by ESPN BET: Rams -6.5 (-290 moneyline)
Mike Clay chance to win: 83%
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 75%

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

The 49ers rate out as the best team in the NFL based on the betting odds and ESPN Analytics model. There are two weeks left to use them — this week and in Week 17 at Washington. Mike Clay’s model views the Week 17 game as the most lopsided game remaining on the schedule this season. But if you don’t feel like you can afford to save them two more weeks, burning them this week is fine, as it is rarely a bad decision to pick the biggest favorites on the board.

Odds by ESPN BET: 49ers -13.5 (-900 moneyline)
Mike Clay chance to win: 85%
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 85%

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints
Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

The Giants have won three straight games, all as significant underdogs, so fading them here is a little scary. But ESPN Analytics still rates the Giants as the worst team in the NFL going forward, even after last week’s positive adjustments. And situationally, the Saints are in a much better spot. The Giants are going on the road after a short week, while the Saints are playing their third straight home game. This is a game with a big gap between Mike Clay’s model and the ESPN Analytics model. ESPN Analytics views the Saints as the third-biggest favorites this week, while Clay doesn’t have the Saints among the top six.

Odds by ESPN BET: Saints -6 (-270 moneyline)
Mike Clay chance to win: 63%
ESPN Analytics chance to win: 79%

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

The Chiefs have an interesting remaining schedule, as ESPN Analytics projects them as at least a seven-point favorite in each remaining game. They will be bigger favorites next week at home against the Raiders, where they are one of four teams with at least a 70% chance to win according to ESPN Analytics (Eagles, Bills, Packers).

If those three teams are gone, saving them for next week is preferred, but at this point of the season, it is truly survive and advance. The Patriots finally won last week, but they are still averaging just 11.8 points per game in their past four games and there’s a big difference between Mitch Trubisky and Patrick Mahomes.