Updated NFL playoff picture: AFC, NFC seed projections after Week 14

December 14, 2023 ndowd

There are four weeks left in the 2023 NFL regular season, and we’re inching closer to January with a preliminary snapshot of how the 14-team playoff picture could look on the road to Super Bowl LVIII.

After the Philadelphia Eagles were blown out by the San Francisco 49ers in Week 13 and then lost to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 14, the race for the 1-seed in the NFC has turned upside down, with all three teams sitting at 10-3.

In the AFC, the battle for the top spot is close as well, with the Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins leading the race to get a first-round bye. The Kansas City Chiefs have lost two games in a row and might be looking at a road playoff game in January.

Which teams could sneak into the wild-card round? And which teams’ hopes are all but over? We used ESPN’s Football Power Index to project the rest of the season, looking at the playoff picture for both conferences, along with odds for the favorites to make the postseason, clinch the division and even make the Super Bowl. We also have seeding projections for the AFC and NFC, so you can see the most likely matchups in each conference, and an early look at the teams fighting for the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft.

Here’s everything you need as we get closer to the NFL playoffs (updated Tuesday, Dec. 12):

Jump to a section:
AFC: Full projections | Seeding
NFC: Full projections | Seeding
Matchup of the week
Race for the 2024 No. 1 pick

Projecting the AFC playoff field

After the Pittsburgh Steelers lost their second straight game in Week 14, their playoff chances dropped to 32%, per FPI. They will face the Indianapolis Colts, who have a 43% chance to make the postseason, in Week 15.

The Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins have the best chance to get the 1-seed and the first-round bye in the AFC, and the two teams face each other in Baltimore in Week 17. The Dolphins’ chances took a hit with their loss on Monday night to the Tennessee Titans, however.

In the opening wild-card round, the 2-seed hosts the 7-seed, the 3-seed hosts the 6-seed and the 4-seed hosts the 5-seed.

Projecting the NFC playoff field

After the Dallas Cowboys‘ win over the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 14, the NFC East picture became a little murkier. In the NFC South, meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints are all 6-7; FPI believes the Bucs have a slight edge to win the division.

The San Francisco 49ers now have the inside track to get the 1-seed, which comes with a bye until the divisional round. In the opening wild-card round, the 2-seed hosts the 7-seed, the 3-seed hosts the 6-seed and the 4-seed hosts the 5-seed.

The wild-card race in the NFC is wide open, as seed Nos. 6 and 7 could come from a host of teams.

The one game you should absolutely watch

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts are fighting for an AFC wild-card spot, and their Week 15 matchup will have ramifications for the playoff picture. FPI likes the Steelers to win in Indy, but if they don’t win, they’re postseason chances would be on the ropes.

The race for the No. 1 pick in 2024

The 2024 NFL draft likely will feature two quarterbacks fighting for the No. 1 spot, as Caleb Williams (USC) and Drake Maye (North Carolina) are ESPN’s top-ranked prospects. Which teams could take them? After Week 14’s results, the picture has become clearer.

The 5-8 Chicago Bears own the 1-12 Carolina Panthers‘ first-round pick (via last year’s pre-draft trade), and that selection has a 95% chance to land at No. 1, according to FPI. The 3-10 New England Patriots have the second-best odds to snag the top pick.

The 3-10 Arizona Cardinals also have two first-round picks, with FPI projecting their original selection at No. 3 and the 7-6 Houston Texans‘ pick — which was acquired in the move up last April — at No. 21.