NFL Week 17 game guide: Matchup keys, predictions and score picks for every game
The Week 17 NFL schedule for the 2023 season is stacked with great matchups, and we got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game and a bold prediction for each matchup.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection and a look at the playoff picture. Analytics writer Seth Walder picks out each matchup’s biggest X factor, and fantasy analyst Eric Moody hands out helpful fantasy football intel. Finally, Walder and Moody give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full Week 17 slate, which starts with a Saturday showdown between the Detroit Lions and the Dallas Cowboys on ABC, ESPN and ESPN+. On Sunday, there is a Tua Tagovailoa–Lamar Jackson showdown in Baltimore, another Bengals-Chiefs matchup and a battle for the NFC South. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted — there is no NFL game on Monday this week — and all playoff chance percentages are via FPI and independent of other results.)
Jump to a matchup:
DET-DAL | NE-BUF | ATL-CHI
LV-IND | LAR-NYG | ARI-PHI
NO-TB | SF-WSH | CAR-JAX
MIA-BAL | TEN-HOU | PIT-SEA
LAC-DEN | CIN-KC | GB-MIN
Thursday: CLE 37, NYJ 20
8:15 p.m. ET on Saturday | ESPN | Spread: DAL -5.5 (52.5)
Storyline to watch: The Cowboys need a win to keep their NFC East title hopes alive, but maybe more importantly need a victory to stop a two-game losing streak and to beat a quality team going into the postseason. The Lions still have home-field advantage dreams and a December triumph against a playoff-bound team. Both teams excel indoors — the Cowboys are 7-0 at home (7-1 overall) and the Lions are 7-2. — Todd Archer
Bold prediction: Lions quarterback Jared Goff will eclipse the 30,000-yard passing mark for his career with 200-plus yards at Dallas. He needs 162 yards to become the league’s 53rd player to hit the mark. Goff has played his best football against nondivisional opponents, with an 8-2 record and 20 touchdowns to just four interceptions. — Eric Woodyard
Stat to know: Goff has the third-most turnovers under pressure this season with 10. On Saturday, he’ll face a Cowboys defense that leads the league in pressure percentage (36.9).
Matchup X factor: Lions defensive back Brian Branch. He mostly plays in the slot, which means he’ll draw his fair share of covering receiver CeeDee Lamb. But Branch is up for the challenge — he has allowed a better-than-average 1.0 yards per coverage snap allowed and leads all rookies with minus-19 EPA against when the nearest defender, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder
1:44
Are the Cowboys on upset alert against the Lions?
Damien Woody and Harry Douglas explain why the Cowboys could lose to the Lions.
What’s at stake: A loss to the Lions would severely limit the Cowboys’ opportunity to capture the division, as their chances would fall from 23.9% with a win to 2.1% with a loss. The Cowboys’ chances of home-field advantage and a first-round bye in the playoffs would be 1.2% with a win and nonexistent with a loss. As for the Lions, they have the NFC North wrapped up, but a win gives them a 29.5% chance of taking the conference’s top seed. A loss prevents Detroit from getting the No. 1 seed. Read more.
What to know for fantasy: The Lions’ defense has allowed the eighth-most receiving yards and the fourth-most touchdowns to wide receivers this season. Lamb is an immediate beneficiary, but don’t overlook Brandin Cooks. At home, the Cowboys average 303 passing yards, the second most in the league. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Lions games are 10-5 to the over this season, tied for the highest over percentage in the NFL. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Cowboys 30, Lions 27
Walder’s pick: Cowboys 27, Lions 21
FPI prediction: DAL, 70.1% (by an average of 7.0 points)
Matchup must-reads: Lions top Vikes, win first division title since 1993 … Why Jerry put Jimmy in Cowboys Ring of Honor … Jurassic Park, MJ’s halftime and more trends from Lions’ last division title … Cowboys need to be ‘road warriors’ to make a Super Bowl run
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: BUF -13 (40.5)
Storyline to watch: The Patriots won the first meeting in October, but the Bills are 12-1 in home games against division opponents since 2020, including the playoffs, with the one loss coming against New England in 2021. The Bills have won three straight while the Patriots are coming off a win at the Broncos. Bills quarterback Josh Allen said, “Frankly, it’s a game that we need to win. And they know that. We know that. If I’m in the New England Patriot locker room, I’m looking to ruin their season.” — Alaina Getzenberg
Bold prediction: The Patriots will hold the Bills’ offense below its average in the red zone. Buffalo is the NFL’s No. 1-rated red zone offense with 37 touchdowns in 55 trips (67.3% success rate), while New England’s red zone defense ranks seventh in the NFL as opponents have scored 22 touchdowns in 45 trips (48.9% success rate). — Mike Reiss
Stat to know: Patriots coach Bill Belichick has never lost 12 games in a season as a head coach — the 2011 Patriots and 1995 Browns each went 5-11.
Matchup X factor: Patriots defensive tackle Christian Barmore. He ranks 10th out of all tackles in pass rush win rate (13.7%) and while the Bills have a good offensive line overall, no one in the interior is elite. Barmore has a chance to make an impact and disrupt Allen. — Walder
What’s at stake: There are five scenarios in which the Bills could clinch a playoff spot, all needing a win over the Patriots. If that happens, they need two of the Bengals, Steelers or Jaguars to lose or losses by the Texans, Colts and either the Bengals or Steelers to clinch. Buffalo’s playoff percentage would be at 97.2 even if it doesn’t clinch and the Bills would still have a chance at winning the AFC East (28.7%) next week in a head-to-head matchup with Miami if the Dolphins lose. A loss takes the Bills out of the division race and gives them a coin flip shot (50.2%) at the playoffs. There isn’t much on the line for the Patriots, who only have a 0.1% chance at the No. 1 pick if they lose. Read more.
What to know for fantasy: Since joining the Bills, Stefon Diggs has averaged 10.1 targets and 21.5 fantasy points against the Patriots. Four of the past five games he’s had eight or more targets. Since 2021, Diggs has averaged only 11.4 fantasy points during December. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bills are 0-7 against the spread (ATS) in their past seven games as a double-digit favorite including the playoffs (0-3 ATS this season). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Bills 28, Patriots 13
Walder’s pick: Bills 27, Patriots 12
FPI prediction: BUF, 87% (by an average of 14.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Zappe, Ryland lift Patriots to win … A career year for Allen? It might not look like it, but it’s happening
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: CHI -3.0 (37.5)
Storyline to watch: The Bears are looking for their fifth straight win at Soldier Field in what could be quarterback Justin Fields‘ final home game in Chicago. The Bears have a 95.7% chance to earn the No. 1 overall pick (via Carolina) and might be eyeing a quarterback in the draft. As for the Falcons, they are averaging 13.6 points per game on the road this season as opposed to 22.9 at home. — Courtney Cronin
Bold prediction: Both the Falcons and Bears will have a 100-yard rusher Sunday — RB Bijan Robinson for Atlanta and Fields for Chicago. It’ll be Fields’ first 100-yard rushing game since Nov. 19 against Detroit and Robinson’s first since Oct. 1 against Jacksonville. But both players have found rhythms of late, leading to a run-heavy game between two teams that like to keep the ball on the ground. — Michael Rothstein
Stat to know: Fields has a 4-3 record in his past seven starts. He had lost 12 straight starts prior.
Matchup X factor: Falcons linebacker Nate Landman. The Bears are a run-heavy team, but Landman is the counter to that as a run-stopping off-ball linebacker. He ranks seventh in run stop win rate (39.9%) among linebackers this season. — Walder
What’s at stake: Both of these teams are alive, but they need a win and help. It’s a bit more straightforward for the Falcons, who have a 12.3% chance of making the playoffs with a win and 6.7% if they lose. Strangely, Atlanta’s chances to win the NFC South won’t change with the result, as they are completely dependent on the Bucs losing to the Saints. The Bears have very slim playoff hopes, as a win would give them a 0.3% chance at the postseason. Read more.
0:38
Why Justin Fields is a top-10 QB in Week 17
Eric Karabell explains why Justin Fields has significant upside in Week 17 due to his rushing ability.
What to know for fantasy: Robinson will appear in a lot of starting lineups, but don’t overlook RB Tyler Allgeier. He has averaged 10.4 touches over the past five games. And the Bears’ defense has given up the 12th-most fantasy points per game to running backs. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Six of the past eight Bears games have gone under the total. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Bears 23, Falcons 21
Walder’s pick: Falcons 20, Bears 17
FPI prediction: ATL, 51.1% (by an average of 0.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: WR London’s parents have attended almost all his NFL games … Bears’ Sweat turning in best season of his career … How the Falcons can win the NFC South, clinch a wild-card berth
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: IND -3.5 (43.5)
Storyline to watch: The Raiders under interim coach Antonio Pierce have held four of their seven opponents under 100 yards rushing. Meanwhile, the Colts have been suddenly inconsistent with their ground game, limited to fewer than 100 total rushing yards in three of their past four games after surpassing the 100-yard mark in seven of their first 11 contests. The Colts are hoping to have both top backs, Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss, healthy for the first time since Nov. 26. — Stephen Holder
Bold prediction: Raiders All-Pro receiver Davante Adams, coming off a 4-yard performance against the Chiefs, will have more than 100 yards receiving and a touchdown against the Colts. Adams, who needs just 28 receiving yards for his fourth straight 1,000-yard season, has a touchdown catch in each of his three career games against the Colts, with at least 100 receiving yards in the past two meetings. Indianapolis, which has the league’s No. 14-ranked pass defense, has not given up 100 yards to a receiver since Week 8 (the Saints’ Rashid Shaheed). — Paul Gutierrez
Stat to know: The Raiders have had multiple defensive touchdowns in each of the past two weeks. If they do it again against the Colts, it will be an NFL record for consecutive games with multiple defensive touchdowns.
Matchup X factor: Colts right tackle Braden Smith. He’s returning from injury and immediately has to protect quarterback Gardner Minshew from pass-rusher Maxx Crosby. Smith’s 90% pass block win rate this season is a bit above average. — Walder
What’s at stake: This is a massive game for both teams. A win gives the Colts a 63.4% chance of making the playoffs and a 28.1% chance to win the AFC South; those percentages fall to 20.6% and 3.9%, respectively, with a loss. As for Vegas, the math is simple — a win keeps the Raiders alive, a loss extinguishes their playoff hopes. The Raiders would have a 34.3% chance at the playoffs with a victory and would stay alive for the AFC West title (2.9%) if the Bengals beat the Chiefs. Read more.
2:09
Has Antonio Pierce earned the Raiders’ head-coaching job?
Marcus Spears and Domonique Foxworth discuss whether Antonio Pierce has done enough to prove he is the right coach for the Raiders.
What to know for fantasy: Colts RB Taylor has had a tumultuous season but has averaged 17.0 touches per game. Under Pierce, the Raiders have improved their defense, but Las Vegas still allows the 11th-most fantasy points per game to running backs. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in seven games since hiring Pierce and 4-1 ATS in their past five as underdogs. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Colts 20, Raiders 16
Walder’s pick: Colts 23, Raiders 19
FPI prediction: IND, 60.4% (by an average of 3.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Raiders still have chance at playoffs with two games left … How the Colts can win AFC South, make playoffs … Antonio Pierce building case for Raiders’ head-coaching job … Colts place safety Blackmon on IR with shoulder injury
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: LAR -5.5 (44.5)
Storyline to watch: The Rams are currently the sixth seed in the NFC with a 75.3% chance of reaching the playoffs, per ESPN Analytics. A massive part of that projection is that they are a fairly substantial favorite on the road against the Giants. An upset loss would put the Rams in a precarious position with a road game against the 49ers on deck. — Jordan Raanan
Bold prediction: Rams WR Puka Nacua will have at least 147 receiving yards to pass Bill Groman (1,473) for the most by a rookie in NFL history. Nacua has four games with at least 147 receiving yards this season, and the Giants’ defense ranks 20th in pass DVOA, allowing an average of 229.7 passing yards per game. — Sarah Barshop
Stat to know: The Rams have scored 28-plus points in five straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL and the Rams’ longest since the 2018 season (six games).
Matchup X factor: Giants quarterback Tyrod Taylor. While Tommy DeVito’s run was fun, Taylor, who was named the starter this week, should be an upgrade. Since 2020, Taylor has a 41 QBR, well ahead of DeVito’s 22 this year. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Rams could punch their postseason ticket this week with a win and a Seahawks loss or a win and a tie in the Packers-Vikings game. Either way, a win is crucial, as the Rams would go from 85.6% to make the playoffs with a win to 22.3% with a loss — a spread of 63.3%. The Giants were eliminated in Week 16 but have a 74% chance of getting a top-five pick in the upcoming draft. Read more.
What to know for fantasy: Rams QB Matthew Stafford has surpassed 30 or more pass attempts and scored 18 or more fantasy points in five consecutive games. Over the past two weeks, the Giants’ defense has given up superb performances to Derek Carr (20.3) and Jalen Hurts (23.4). Stafford is firmly on the QB1 radar. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Rams have covered five straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Rams 31, Giants 17
Walder’s pick: Rams 26, Giants 17
FPI prediction: LAR, 82.2% (by an average of 12.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Rams relishing in newfound wide receiver depth … Giants to start Taylor over DeVito at QB vs. Rams
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: PHI -11.0 (48.5)
Storyline to watch: Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon makes his return to Philly. The former Eagles defensive coordinator had a bumpy exit, with his defense yielding 17 fourth-quarter points in an excruciating 38-35 loss to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. The Eagles’ defense, ranked No. 2 overall under Gannon in 2022, has struggled for much of the season, prompting a switch from Sean Desai to Matt Patricia as defensive playcaller. Gannon and the Cardinals will try to play spoiler against an Eagles team that is tied with the 49ers and Lions for the best record in the conference and looking to secure a top seed in the NFC playoffs. — Tim McManus
Bold prediction: Both offenses will gain 350 yards and score at least 21 points because neither defense can slow down opposing offenses. The Cardinals are giving up 363 total yards and 26.9 points per game, and the Eagles are allowing 346 total yards and 24.4 points per game. But here’s the catch: The Cardinals haven’t scored more than 30 points this season despite scoring 24 or more points six times. Philadelphia has reached 30 points six times and has exceeded 350 total yards eight times — but just once in the past month. — Josh Weinfuss
Stat to know: The Eagles are 12-1 when A.J. Brown has a receiving touchdown and 13-6 when he doesn’t. Brown is seeking to avoid a fifth straight game without catching a TD pass.
Matchup X factor: Eagles cornerback James Bradberry. He has allowed 17 EPA as the nearest defender this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats, which is 13th worst among outside corners with at least 250 coverage snaps. It’s a far cry from Bradberry’s stellar play a year ago, and the Eagles need more from him. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Eagles are already in the playoffs and can clinch the NFC East with a win and a loss or tie by the Cowboys. But even if the Eagles don’t clinch, their chances to win the division would be a robust 92.3% with a win, with a 30.2% chance of grabbing the NFC’s top seed and home-field advantage. A loss drops the Eagles to 40.3% to win the division and only 1.3% at home-field advantage. The Cardinals can still get the No. 1 pick with a loss, as they’d have a 3.8% chance of picking first. They are in good shape to get the No. 2 pick, though. Read more.
What to know for fantasy: Cardinals QB Kyler Murray faces an Eagles defense that gives up the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Philadelphia ranks sixth in pass rush win rate — this could lead to Murray accumulating rushing yards. The Eagles’ defense also gives up the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. When Marquise Brown has seven or more targets with Murray under center, he averages 15.0 fantasy points per game. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Eagles are 0-8 ATS in their past seven games in December or later. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Eagles 38, Cardinals 17
Walder’s pick: Eagles 28, Cardinals 17
FPI prediction: PHI, 80.9% (by an average of 11.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: Will Cardinals trade or keep pick if they get No. 2 slot? … Eagles still feeling effects of Jonathan Gannon’s messy exit
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: TB -2.5 (42,5)
Storyline to watch: Dubbed the “Battle for the South,” the Bucs can clinch the NFC South with a win over New Orleans on Sunday. This game comes at a good time for Tampa Bay, which is on a four-game winning streak and has won the past three meetings against the Saints. Quarterback Baker Mayfield is one touchdown pass away from tying his rookie season career-high of 27. — Jenna Laine
Bold prediction: The Saints give up 100 yards to Bucs receiver Mike Evans. Evans hasn’t had a 100-yard receiving game against the Saints since 2018, when he had seven catches for 147 yards. The Saints have contained Evans well when starting cornerback Marshon Lattimore was matched up against him, but Lattimore won’t be coming off IR this week. The Saints struggled to contain the Rams’ receivers last week, leading to the temporary benching of slot corner Alontae Taylor, and Evans has been a factor in almost every game he has played this season. — Katherine Terrell
Stat to know: Mayfield and Evans have connected on 13 touchdown passes. That’s tied for the sixth most by a duo in their first season together in NFL history.
Matchup X factor: Buccaneers cornerbacks Carlton Davis III and Jamel Dean. Together they’ve allowed 36 total EPA as the nearest defender, per NFL Next Gen Stats. That’s not great! And Sunday they’ll have to contend with WR Chris Olave. — Walder
What’s at stake: It’s quite simple for the Buccaneers, as a win gives them their third consecutive NFC South title and fourth straight playoff berth. Tampa is still the odds-on favorite to win the division and make the playoffs even if it loses, though, as the Bucs are at 71.1% to accomplish both. The Saints need to win to stay alive, as they are eliminated with a loss. A win gives New Orleans a chance to make the playoffs (20.9%) and win the division (16%) in Week 18. Read more.
Injuries: Saints | Buccaneers
0:50
Yates: Baker Mayfield can be trusted in fantasy vs. the Saints
Field Yates breaks down why fantasy managers can trust Baker Mayfield in Week 17.
What to know for fantasy: Derek Carr has scored 20 or more fantasy points in two consecutive games. He faces a Buccaneers defense that gives up the eighth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Buccaneers are 1-6 outright against teams currently with winning records (4-3 ATS), winning last week against the Jaguars. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 30, Saints 26
Walder’s pick: Saints 26, Buccaneers 20
FPI prediction: NO, 51.8% (by an average of 0.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Saints in must-win mode as playoff chances are thinning … Bucs looking to clinch division, playoff spot vs. Saints … Mayfield leads Buccaneers to fourth straight win
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: SF -12.5 (49.5)
Storyline to watch: Former Washington defensive end Chase Young makes his return, two months after the team traded him to San Francisco. Young recorded five sacks in seven games with Washington and has 2.5 in seven games with San Francisco, though he has been a backup with the 49ers after starting for the Commanders. Of his 53 pass rush wins, according to ESPN Stats & Information, 38 came with Washington. He’ll get a chance to sack Commanders quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who is slated to make his first start of the season. But Brissett was added to the injury report with a hamstring injury and is listed as questionable. In two relief appearances and 25 dropbacks, Brissett has not been sacked. — John Keim
Bold prediction: RB Christian McCaffrey scores three touchdowns to become the Niners’ single-season record holder. McCaffrey has 21 touchdowns (rushing and receiving combined) through 15 games, leaving him two short of Jerry Rice’s franchise record of 23 (which Rice did in just 12 games in 1987). This is a favorable matchup for McCaffrey and the Niners’ offense as Washington is 23rd in yards per rush allowed (4.5) and rushing yards allowed (1,840). The Commanders have also given up 597 receiving yards to running backs, which ranks 27th in the NFL. Look for McCaffrey to do damage through the air and on the ground on his way to a record-breaking day. — Nick Wagoner
Stat to know: With a win, the 49ers would have 12-plus wins in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1996-98.
Matchup X factor: Brissett. Sam Howell‘s play deteriorated in recent weeks, with just a 36 QBR since Week 10. Brissett should be an upgrade, and, in fact, the betting line has shrunk since it opened and Ron Rivera announced Brissett as the starter. In other words: That’s a strong sign the betting markets have more faith in Brissett. — Walder
What’s at stake: The 49ers can wrap up the No. 1 seed, a bye and home-field advantage with a win and losses by the Lions and Eagles. Even if they don’t clinch, the Niners are at 79.2% to get the top seed with a win, but a loss would drop those odds all the way to 16.2%. The Commanders still have faint hopes of getting the No. 1 pick with a loss (0.7%). Read more.
Injuries: 49ers | Commanders
0:48
Expect Brock Purdy to bounce back in fantasy vs. the Commanders
Matt Bowen breaks down why 49ers QB Brock Purdy should still be in fantasy lineups this week despite a lackluster outing in Week 16.
What to know for fantasy: The Commanders’ defense has allowed the second-most receiving yards and second-most touchdowns per game to wide receivers. You’ll want to have Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk in lineups. Also, the Commanders have given up the sixth-most receiving yards per game to running backs, which is good news for McCaffrey. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The 49ers have covered four straight on the road and four straight as road favorites. Read more.
Moody’s pick: 49ers 40, Commanders 14
Walder’s pick: 49ers 30, Commanders 13
FPI prediction: SF, 77.6% (by an average of 10.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Ward growing into lockdown corner for 49ers … Commanders to start backup Brissett at QB
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: JAX -6.5 (37.5)
Storyline to watch: Only the Commanders’ Sam Howell (60) has been sacked more than Panthers rookie QB Bryce Young (53), which is a good sign for a struggling Jaguars pass rush. Jaguars LB Josh Allen has 13.5 sacks (he needs one more to tie the franchise’s single-season record), but his team recorded just 32 total. On the flip side, the Panthers have the league’s worst pass rush (21 sacks), and the Jaguars’ offensive line ranks 30th in pass block win rate (49.4%), per ESPN Stats & Information. If Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence can’t go because of an AC sprain in his throwing shoulder, backup C.J. Beathard will be in at quarterback. — Mike DiRocco
Bold prediction: Young, who didn’t have a 300-yard passing game until this past Sunday against Green Bay, will have his second against a Jaguars defense ranked 29th against the pass (257.1 passing yards allowed per game) and 27th in sacks. He’ll also have a career-high four touchdown passes. — David Newton
Stat to know: The Jaguars are 0-4 in December. Only three teams in the Super Bowl era have made the playoffs after going winless in December: the 2022 Dolphins, 2000 Vikings and 1969 Rams.
Matchup X factor: The Jaguars’ defense. While both sides have been seriously lacking of late, the defense has been the biggest difference between the Jaguars in Weeks 1-12 and their current four-game losing streak in Weeks 13-16. Fortunately for Jacksonville, the Panthers represent an opportunity to get back on track. — Walder
What’s at stake: Despite their losing skid, the Jaguars can win the AFC South on Sunday with a win and losses by the Texans and Colts. Even if they don’t clinch, Jacksonville is at 88.1% to make the playoffs and 79.7% to win the division with a victory. Those odds drop to 51.5% and 26.8%, respectively, with a loss. A Panthers loss would lock up the No. 1 pick for the Bears (who acquired the Panthers’ 2024 No. 1 pick in the trade for the No. 1 pick in 2023), but Carolina’s pick would still have an 82.7% chance of being No. 1 even if the Panthers pull an upset. Read more.
2:00
How Evan Engram ranks in Week 17
The Fantasy Focus crew talks about Evan Engram’s high volume and where he ranks in a deceptively tough matchup against the Panthers.
What to know for fantasy: Young had his best fantasy performance (22.2) against the Packers in Week 16. Now, the rookie faces a Jaguars defense in Week 17 that gives up the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. That’s good news for D.J. Chark Jr. The Jaguars have given up the eighth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Seven of the past nine Panthers games have gone under the total. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Panthers 24, Jaguars 20
Walder’s pick: Jaguars 23, Panthers 14
FPI prediction: JAX, 78.0% (by an average of 10.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Brown having spectacular season on NFL-worst Panthers … Is TE Engram the key to the Jaguars’ offense in closing weeks? … QB Lawrence feels better but will limit throwing this week
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: BAL -3.0 (46.5)
Storyline to watch: This is a showdown between the NFL’s highest-scoring offense in the Dolphins (29 offensive points per game) and the league’s stingiest defense in the Ravens (16.3 points allowed per game). It’s the fourth time that the No. 1 scoring offense has faced the No. 1 scoring defense in the final two weeks of the regular season since the 1970 merger. The team with the highest-scoring offense has won three of the four meetings. — Jamison Hensley
Bold prediction: With Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle not expected to play, the Dolphins’ passing game will take a hit — but their run game will make up for it. Both Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane surpass 80 rushing yards in a Miami upset victory. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Stat to know: The Dolphins have used motion on 82% of their offensive plays this season, the highest rate in the NFL. On Sunday, Miami will face a Ravens defense that has been excellent facing motion, allowing the second-fewest yards per attempt (6.0) and yards per rush (5.3).
Matchup X factor: Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson. Why? Because since Week 8, the Dolphins’ defense ranks first in EPA per play. Miami is firing on all cylinders, and Jackson is going to have to orchestrate an offense around that dominant defense. While Jackson is largely considered an MVP candidate, he also ranks only eighth in QBR. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Ravens would be sitting pretty with a win, as a victory would clinch the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs. After the Browns won Thursday night, the Ravens need a win to clinch the AFC North. A loss would drop the Ravens’ chances at the No. 1 seed to 41.1%. The Dolphins can also clinch their division Sunday, as a win or a Bills loss locks up the AFC East. A win would also give the Dolphins a solid shot at locking up the No. 1 seed (55.7%), with a loss eliminating that possibility. A loss and a Buffalo win set up a Week 18 matchup for the division crown, with a 55.5% chance of the Dolphins winning the AFC East title. Read more.
0:49
Jaylen Waddle not expected to play vs. Ravens
Adam Schefter reports that Jaylen Waddle is unlikely to suit up vs. the Ravens with an ankle injury.
What to know for fantasy: Tagovailoa hasn’t scored 20 fantasy points since Week 8 against the Patriots. The Ravens’ defense gives up the third-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Baltimore defense has also given up the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. Achane has been phenomenal this season but has averaged only 10.6 touches over the past three games. In that time frame, Mostert has averaged 17.0 touches. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Dolphins have failed to cover three straight as an underdog, as well as three straight as a road underdog. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Ravens 24, Dolphins 21
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 23, Ravens 20
FPI prediction: BAL, 55.6% (by an average of 1.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Dolphins dispute ‘cuteness’ label as they prepare for Ravens … Jackson, Ravens try to keep ‘level head,’ ignore No. 1 team talk … Source: Dolphins’ Waddle expected to miss game vs. Ravens
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: HOU -5.5 (43.5)
Storyline to watch: The Texans control their destiny. If they win, they’ll be in the postseason. The Titans face a different version of the Texans, as rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud has cleared concussion protocol. Before Stroud suffered a concussion, he led the league in passing yards (3,631) and threw 20 touchdowns to five interceptions. The Texans’ offense with Stroud ranked 10th in scoring (23.8 per game) and was sixth in total offense (373.1). Without him, the offense averaged 295 yards and 17 points. Stroud will face the league’s second-best red zone defense, which allows touchdowns on just 38.2% of red zone drives. — DJ Bien-Aime
Bold prediction: Titans receiver DeAndre Hopkins will have 100 receiving yards and surpass 1,000 yards on the season. Hopkins has posted three 100-yard receiving games this season. Houston’s defense is allowing 247.8 passing yards per game, so it will be a prime opportunity for Hopkins to have a good game against his former team. — Turron Davenport
Stat to know: With a loss, the Titans would lose 11 games in a season for first time since 2015 (3-13).
Matchup X factor: Texans wide receiver Noah Brown and tight end Dalton Schultz. Even with Stroud back, this Texans offense still is missing WR Tank Dell. At times, Brown and Schultz have showed up in major ways. Houston needs one of them to come through to get the offense back on track. — Walder
What’s at stake: A win for the Texans gives them basically a 50/50 shot to qualify for the playoffs next week (50.5%) and a puncher’s chance at taking the AFC South (20.1%). A loss would not be kind to Houston, reducing its playoff odds to 23.4% and its AFC South hopes to only 1.7%. The Titans are eliminated from the playoffs, but a loss would increase their chances at a top-five pick. Read more.
What to know for fantasy: This season, Texans WR Nico Collins has averaged 34.1 fantasy points when he has been targeted nine times or more. The Titans’ defense has given up the fifth-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Titans are 1-8 ATS in their past nine against teams with winning records. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Texans 27, Titans 21
Walder’s pick: Texans 23, Titans 13
FPI prediction: HOU, 51.5% (by an average of 0.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: Texans’ Stroud clears concussion protocol, to start vs. Titans … Texans pick up twice-suspended safety Jackson … How the Jags, Colts, Texans can win AFC South, make playoffs
4:05 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: SEA -3.5 (41.5)
Storyline to watch: While the Seahawks’ run defense has faltered of late, their pass defense has been much better. After allowing roughly 3.6 pass plays per game of at least 20 yards over the first 14 weeks, Seattle is the only team that has not allowed one such completion over the past two weeks. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, got touchdown catches from George Pickens of 86 and 66 yards as well as another 44-yard reception last week. If Seahawks cornerback Devon Witherspoon returns from the hip pointer that has sidelined him most of the past three games, the Witherspoon-Pickens matchup will be a must-watch. — Brady Henderson
Bold prediction: The Steelers will have their first 100-yard rusher since Week 11. The Seahawks have given up 171 rushing yards per game in their past three outings, the second worst mark in the NFL. After struggling for the better part of the past month, the Steelers committed to the run game against the Bengals and ran the ball 30 times for 113 yards, with Najee Harris accounting for 78 of those. With QB Mason Rudolph stretching the field and opening up the offense with deep, vertical passes, expect the Steelers to keep finding room to run against the Seahawks. — Brooke Pryor
Stat to know: Seahawks’ receiver DK Metcalf has five receiving touchdowns in the past four games after scoring three in his first 10 games.
Matchup X factor: Steelers cornerback Joey Porter Jr. We’ve highlighted him a few times, but his role against Seattle’s strong receiver group is paramount. Porter ranks second in yards per coverage snap allowed and eighth in EPA allowed among outside corners with at least 250 coverage snaps. — Walder
What’s at stake: A third straight win would lock the Seahawks into the playoffs if the Packers-Vikings game ends in a tie. Even if that doesn’t happen, the Seahawks are in good shape with a win, as their chances to make the playoffs would grow to 87.7%. A loss doesn’t end Seattle’s postseason chances, but it would reduce them to 41.7%. The Steelers also aren’t out with a loss, but their playoff hopes would fall to 5.5%. A win gives Pittsburgh a bit more hope, increasing its playoff percentage to 23.2%. Read more.
0:30
Where does Geno Smith rank ahead of matchup with Steelers?
Liz Loza believes that Geno Smith could be a serviceable option for fantasy managers at the QB position in Week 17.
What to know for fantasy: The Seahawks’ defense has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. This season, Harris has averaged 15.1 touches per game, while Jaylen Warren has averaged 12. There is a place for both in fantasy lineups, especially for managers in deeper formats. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Five of the past six Seahawks games against AFC teams have gone under the total. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Seahawks 24, Steelers 21
Walder’s pick: Seahawks 22, Steelers 19
FPI prediction: SEA, 67.1% (by an average of 5.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Steelers’ Rudolph to start again if Pickett still out … Geno’s impact felt in return to field
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: DEN -3.5 (36.5)
Storyline to watch: Broncos coach Sean Payton benched quarterback Russell Wilson this week after Payton had publicly — again — expressed his frustration over the offense’s performance in the loss to the New England Patriots on Sunday. Wilson’s replacement, Jarrett Stidham, will face a Chargers defense ranked 29th overall, allowing 372.6 yards per game. Stidham has a chance over the next two games to stake a claim to compete for the starting job next season. The Broncos also waived a defensive captain Monday in Kareem Jackson, so how this team looks on the field will bear watching given the two players’ standing in the locker room. — Jeff Legwold
Bold prediction: The Chargers have the feel of a team reenergized under interim coach Giff Smith, whom players have lauded for his old-school, tough-love approach that is uniform from stars to reserves. In their first game under Smith, the Chargers nearly beat the Buffalo Bills — a team that had blown out the soaring Cowboys a week before — without top target Keenan Allen and with a third-string center and a backup quarterback. With the Broncos fresh off a week of turmoil, the Chargers could spoil Denver’s slim playoff hopes on New Year’s Eve. — Kris Rhim
Stat to know: The Broncos’ defense has registered 15 sacks in the past four games, and opposing quarterbacks have been held to a 34.9 Total QBR since Week 13, nearly 25 points better than in the Broncos’ first 12 games.
Matchup X factor: Stidham. He’s basically a total wild card having not thrown a single pass as a Bronco. He should have an easy first assignment against the Chargers, but Denver’s chances will depend a lot on what kind of quarterback they have Sunday. — Walder
What’s at stake: The playoffs and the AFC West are still in play for the Broncos with a win, as they’d have a 7.7% chance to make the postseason and a 2.6% to win the division (would need the Chiefs to lose, too). A loss would eliminate Denver and be the eighth straight season out of the playoffs. The Chargers can’t get the No. 1 pick, but they currently have an 18.2% at a top-five selection in the 2024 draft. Read more.
1:12
Why are the Broncos benching Russell Wilson now?
Adam Schefter breaks down the Broncos’ decision to bench Russell Wilson and what this means moving forward.
What to know for fantasy: Chargers RB Austin Ekeler has averaged 18.4 touches and 19.2 fantasy points per game against the Broncos since 2021. Denver’s defense has steadily improved, but the Broncos still give up the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their past seven games. They have gone under their total in 10 of their past 13 (going over last week). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Broncos 17, Chargers 14
Walder’s pick: Broncos 16, Chargers 13
FPI prediction: DEN, 53.1% (by an average of 1.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Why the Chargers are one of the NFL’s most frustrating teams … Has QB Wilson played his final game for the Broncos?
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: KC -7.0 (44.5)
Storyline to watch: If this game is anything like Chiefs-Bengals meetings from recent seasons, it will come down to the end. Their four games from the past two years — two in the regular season, two in the AFC Championship Game — have been decided by exactly three points. If it’s a similar scenario this time, it has to favor the Bengals. The Chiefs have been unable to rally for a win in the fourth quarter this season. — Adam Teicher
Bold prediction: Chiefs rookie Rashee Rice goes for 125 receiving yards. Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo will make it a point to keep Travis Kelce from doing significant damage against Cincinnati. This should leave a lot of favorable matchups for Rice, who has a team-high 41 targets for Kansas City in the previous four games. — Ben Baby
Stat to know: Mahomes needs 329 passing yards to pass Len Dawson (28,507) for most in Chiefs’ franchise history.
Matchup X factor: Bengals wide receiver Tyler Boyd. If Ja’Marr Chase is out again, just so much falls on the shoulders of Tee Higgins. Jake Browning and the Bengals need a second weapon, and Boyd, if he plays at his best, can be that. — Walder
What’s at stake: The Chiefs can lock up their eighth consecutive AFC West crown with a win or losses by the Raiders and Broncos. Even if the Chiefs don’t clinch the division, a win guarantees a playoff spot. Kansas City is still in a strong position to make the playoffs (92.8%) and win the division (90.8%) even if it loses. There’s more volatility for the Bengals, as a win gives Cincinnati a 50.5% of making the playoffs, while a loss drops those odds to 7.4%. Read more.
1:19
Harry Douglas: Travis Kelce needs to step up as a leader
Harry Douglas argues that Travis Kelce needs to lead by example to help get the Chiefs’ offense back on track.
What to know for fantasy: Rice faces a Bengals defense that gives up the ninth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Over the past five games, he has averaged 10.0 targets and 18.6 fantasy points. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Chiefs are 10-18 ATS in their past 28 games when laying at least a touchdown. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Chiefs 34, Bengals 20
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 27, Bengals 23
FPI prediction: KC, 72.8% (by an average of 8.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Bengals routed by Steelers as payoff hopes dwindle … Kelce goes off on Chiefs’ struggles: ‘Not just one guy’
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: MIN -1.0 (44.5)
Storyline to watch: The Vikings are once again turning to rookie QB Jaren Hall, largely because they are out of options after Nick Mullens threw six interceptions in two starts and Joshua Dobbs was unable to move the offense at the end of his stint as a starter. Ordinarily, Hall’s grand total of 22 previous offensive snaps at the NFL level would be a concern in a game with such obvious playoff implications. But the Vikings are fortunate that he will be playing against a Packers pass defense that has allowed a 62.3 QBR to opposing quarterbacks since the start of Week 11, the fourth-worst defensive mark in the league over that period. — Kevin Seifert
Bold prediction: The Packers will have their first 100-yard receiver of the season. This after Aaron Jones gave them their first 100-yard rusher of the season in Sunday’s win at Carolina. It’s not that the Vikings are giving up gobs of yards through the air — they rank 17th in the league, allowing 225.5 passing yards per game — but it’s bound to happen for Green Bay. Christian Watson has twice had games in the 90-yard range. Dontayvion Wicks has a 97-yard outing, Romeo Doubs has a 95-yard game and Jayden Reed has two in the 80s. — Rob Demovsky
Stat to know: The Vikings are 1-8 when losing the turnover battle this season — the most such defeats in the NFL. They are 6-0 when they don’t lose the turnover differential. The Vikings’ 30 turnovers are tied with the Jets for second most in NFL this season (Browns, 32) and are the Vikings’ most since 2013 (32).
Matchup X factor: Packers cornerbacks Carrington Valentine and Eric Stokes. With Jaire Alexander suspended, these two will likely have to contend with Justin Jefferson in what promises to be a tough assignment. — Walder
What’s at stake: This is pretty much a must-win game for both teams. There’s more of a range for the Packers, who would have a better than 50-50 shot at the playoffs with a win (52.2%) but would be on the brink of elimination with a loss (0.4%). It’s not as extreme a spread for the Vikings, but they need to win; their playoff hopes go from 39.3% with a win to 2.2% with a loss. Read more.
What to know for fantasy: WR K.J. Osborn has averaged 20.5 fantasy points per game over his career when he has seen seven or more targets. After losing T.J. Hockenson for the season, Osborn is expected to play a larger role in the Vikings’ passing game. See Week 17 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Prime-time unders are 33-17 this season and 156-102-4 (.605) over the past five seasons. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Packers 21, Vikings 20
Walder’s pick: Vikings 23, Packers 20
FPI prediction: GB, 52.7% (by an average of 1.0 points)
Matchup must-reads: Packers get ‘that dude’ Jones back just in time … Vikings bench QB Mullens, to start rookie Hall … Packers suspend CB Alexander one game after coin-toss mix-up … Vikings TE Hockenson out for season with torn ACL, MCL
