Mike Clay's NFL Betting Playbook for the divisional round
-
Mike Clay, ESPN Senior Writer
The NFL’s divisional round is right around the corner, and the betting market is loaded with player props. That’s why we’re bringing you the NFL betting playbook, highlighting some of the top options for each of this weekend’s pivotal playoff games.
My weekly betting playbook features several data points for each of this weekend’s scheduled games, along with my analysis of a few notable lines I’m interested in betting, although this article is designed in a way that allows you to pick your own favorites.
Exclusively for ESPN+ members: If you’d like to see a list of around 100 props and my recommended plays for each, please click on this link.
Note: Odds by ESPN BET and correct as of time of publication.
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens -9.5
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
Saturday 4:30 p.m. ET
Money Line: Houston Texans (+340); Baltimore Ravens (-420)
Total: 43.5; Opened: 45.5
FPI favorite: Ravens by 12.8 (81.7% to win outright)
Clay’s Projected Score: Ravens 26, Texans 20
-
Gus Edwards under 13.5 rushing attempts (-120): Edwards was active for all 17 of Baltimore’s regular-season games and was nonetheless limited to only 43% of the team’s designed rushing attempts. That worked out to 11.6 per game, and he finished 11 of those 17 outings with fewer than 14 carries. All six exceptions came in Baltimore wins by at least seven points. Edwards has seen his carry total dip as of late, having fallen short of 14 carries in seven of his past nine games. The veteran back has been sharing the backfield with Justice Hill and is expected to defer some carries to newcomer Dalvin Cook during the playoffs. Houston has arguably the league’s best run defense, having allowed a league-low 3.3 yards per carry during the regular season. Edwards is a good bet to fall short here, and that will especially be the case if Houston keeps it relatively close.
Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers -9.5
Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Saturday 8:15 p.m. ET
Money Line: Green Bay Packers (+360); San Francisco 49ers (-450)
Total: 50.5; Opened: 50.5
FPI favorite: 49ers by 11.2 (78.6% to win outright)
Clay’s Projected Score: 49ers 29, Packers 25
-
Tucker Kraft over 2.5 receptions (-125) and Luke Musgrave under 2.5 receptions (-170): I’m combining the two Packers tight ends, as Kraft’s line should be higher and Musgrave’s lower. Last week against the Cowboys, Kraft played on 43 (84%) of the team’s 51 offensive snaps and tied for the team lead by running 15 out of a possible 21 pass routes. Musgrave, meanwhile, was limited to just 15 snaps (29%) and ran only six routes. Both tight ends were targeted three times, but the usage suggests that split is fluky. Kraft stepped into a full-time role when Musgrave went down with an injury in Week 11 and has sustained said role even once Musgrave returned in Week 18. Kraft had at least three receptions in six consecutive games before catching only two in last week’s low-volume win. Musgrave, meanwhile, has caught at least three passes in seven out of 12 games, although, as noted, his playing time has dipped from 71% pre-injury to just 21% since his return.
-
Rashan Gary under 0.5 sacks (-200): This one is very close on value (I wouldn’t go much lower than -200), but I’m on board with it, as Gary has gone without a sack in 12 out of 18 games, including six in a row. In six of the exceptions, he had a half-sack, which would have generated a push. Gary has played on 63% of Green Bay’s defensive snaps since the team’s Week 6 bye and hasn’t finished any game above 72%. During the regular season, he ranked 24th among edge rushers in sacks (9.0) but 58th in pass-rush wins (24). Brock Purdy took only 28 sacks (1.8 per game) during the regular season.
-
Dontayvion Wicks under 3.5 receptions (-200): The vig is getting ugly on this one and the primary line has moved to 2.5, but I’ll leave it here in case you can land the 3.5. Wicks played on 56% of the Packers’ offensive snaps and was limited to only two targets in the wild-card victory over the Cowboys. Granted, Green Bay called only 21 passes in the convincing win, but Wicks has substantial competition for targets with Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson (who was limited in his return from a hamstring injury last week) and Bo Melton all involved at wideout (not to mention Kraft, Musgrave and Aaron Jones). In total, Wicks reached four receptions in just four out of 16 games. Watson was out for three of those four games, and Reed was limited to his second-lowest snap share of the season in the other (a 20-3 win over the Rams in Week 9). With everyone healthy this week, Wicks’ snap total figures to take a hit, making him a long shot to reach four catches.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions -6.5
Ford Field, Detroit
Sunday 3 p.m. ET
Money Line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+250); Detroit Lions (-300)
Total: 48.5; Opened: 48.5
FPI favorite: Lions by 4.5 (62.5% to win outright)
Clay’s Projected Score: Lions 27, Buccaneers 23
-
Baker Mayfield over 1.5 TD passes (-105): Mayfield tossed three TD passes against the Eagles last week and has at least two passing scores in 11 out of 18 games. That includes five of his past six outings and seven of his nine road games for the season. Mayfield was inexplicably held without a passing score in Tampa Bay’s 20-6 loss to Detroit in Week 6, but that was likely a fluke considering the Lions allowed 28 TD passes during the regular season (sixth most). Including last week’s win, Detroit has surrendered at least two passing scores in 10 out of 18 games, including four straight. This is an easy one to get behind around even money.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills -2.5
Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
Sunday 6:30 p.m. ET
Money Line: Kansas City Chiefs (+130); Buffalo Bills (-150)
Total: 45.5; Opened: 45.5
FPI favorite: Bills by 2.3 (56.6% to win outright)
Clay’s Projected Score: Bills 25, Chiefs 21
-
Patrick Mahomes over 36.5 passing attempts (-110): This is a game script/scheme/matchup play as the Chiefs are 3.0-point road underdogs and operate the league’s game-script adjusted, pass-heaviest offense. Mahomes has attempted at least 38 passes in his past five games against Buffalo and is averaging 43.8 per game during the span. That includes 38 and 44 attempts in two previous playoff games and 43 attempts when these teams met in Week 14. In total, Mahomes has averaged 37.5 passing attempts per game this season. That number jumps to 40.0 per game in Kansas City’s six losses (38-plus in five of those six).
-
Harrison Butker under 2.5 XP made (-125): To convert extra points, you need to attempt them in the first place — and to attempt them, you need your team to score touchdowns. Excluding a Week 18 game in which the starters rested, the Kansas City offense has scored at least three touchdowns only five times this season. The Buffalo defense, meanwhile has allowed more than two scores in just five games, including zero times in the six games since the team’s Week 13 bye. The Chiefs very rarely go for 2-point conversions, which helps Butker’s cause, but that’s often game-script related, and they very well may need to do so this week as they are underdogs for the first time since Super Bowl LVII.
-
Josh Allen over 0.5 INTs (-105): The gift that keeps on giving, Allen has thrown at least one interception in 12 of his past 14 games. He avoided getting picked off against the Steelers last week, but the only other time he has gone without one since Week 5 was the Week 15 victory over Dallas in which he attempted only 15 passes. The Chiefs haven’t had many interceptions this season, but Allen served one up in their Week 14 matchup, and they did pick off Tua Tagovailoa in last week’s wild-card win.
