Burrow, Chase highlight Moody's favorite draft targets

The fantasy football draft season is in full swing and preparation now can set you up for a regular-season championship run. Identifying players who will exceed expectations and outperform their average draft position plays a key part in making decisions.

Below are 15 players I am excited about this season. I’ve also listed some late-round fliers worth considering. These are quarterbacks outside of the top 20, running backs outside the top 40, wide receivers outside the top 50 and tight ends outside the top 16.

Without further ado, let’s get started with a quarterback who should have a bounce-back season.

Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (ADP: 62.1)

Burrow, when healthy, remains a strong fantasy play and a great option for those who prefer to wait until the middle rounds to draft a quarterback. He suffered a strained right calf during training camp last season, which limited his mobility and production early in the season, and then tore a ligament in his right (throwing) wrist in Week 11, which ended his season. Burrow averaged only 8.0 fantasy points per game from Weeks 1-4, completing 57.6% of his passes, but he bounced back in Weeks 5 through 10, averaging 21.4 fantasy points per game while completing 74% of his throws. He is poised to rebound in 2024 with big-play receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, plus rookie third-round pick Jermaine Burton, who should be an upgrade over Tyler Boyd. While the Bengals lost offensive coordinator Brian Callahan to the Tennessee Titans in the offseason, I wouldn’t be worried. Cincinnati’s new offensive coordinator, Dan Pitcher, has been with the team since 2016 and spent the past four seasons as Burrow’s quarterback coach.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (ADP: 91.3)

Murray should exceed expectations entering his first full season since tearing his ACL in 2022. He is an excellent option for those seeking a dual-threat quarterback outside of Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson and Anthony Richardson, who will go much earlier in drafts. Murray finished as a top-10 fantasy quarterback in 2020 (QB3) and 2021 (QB10). Although he struggled as a passer over the past two seasons and averaged only 219.3 passing yards per game, he finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in 11 of his 18 games played. Murray has also averaged 6.8 rushing attempts and 39.0 rushing yards per game since 2020. With a full offseason to build rapport with the Cardinals’ playmakers, including wide receivers Marvin Harrison Jr. and Zay Jones and tight end Trey McBride, Murray should outperform his ADP behind an improved offensive line.

---

Running backs

Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints (ADP: 37.8)

It’s tough to pass on Kamara at his current ADP. He was one of the most reliable fantasy running backs last season, finishing as the RB3 on a per-game basis. While he averaged the fewest yards per touch of his career (4.5), Kamara still finished second among all running backs in targets (86) and receptions (75), ninth in red zone touches and averaged 89.2 yards from scrimmage per game. With new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, the Saints’ backfield pecking order should remain unchanged. Kamara’s consistency and expected usage make him a valuable pick at a discount.

Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings (ADP: 64.0)

Jones is one of the running backs I love to draft in the middle rounds. Although he missed six games last season due to a hamstring injury and MCL sprain, he finished strong with three consecutive games of at least 14 fantasy points. Jones is a threat as a runner and receiver and should see plenty of volume on a Vikings team that ranked 29th in total rushing yards and 31st in rushing touchdowns last season. Jones is a solid RB2.

Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders (ADP: 80.9)

After spending 27 games as a scarcely used backup, White finally got his chance to shine last season in Week 15, after Josh Jacobs was lost to a quadriceps injury. White proved he was capable of carrying the load for the Raiders with 20 or more touches in each of the final four games, ranking as the RB8 during that span. Las Vegas will look to establish a strong rushing attack under head coach Antonio Pierce and new offensive coordinator Luke Getsy. This bodes well for White’s fantasy outlook in 2024, considering his only competition is Alexander Mattison.

Jonathon Brooks, Carolina Panthers (ADP: 92.9)

Brooks is coming off an ACL injury suffered in November after an exceptional collegiate career at Texas as an all-purpose back. He was selected 46th overall in the 2024 draft and will be part of a crowded Panthers backfield that includes Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders. But don’t let that deter you from targeting Brooks in fantasy drafts. The Panthers had only nine rushing attempts of 20 or more yards and seven rushing touchdowns in 2023. Brooks should be able to help Carolina in this area. New Panthers head coach Dave Canales leaned heavily on Rachaad White last season, which bodes well for Brooks. While he won’t be cleared to start the season, Brooks still has the skills as a runner and receiver to emerge as a fantasy difference-maker. I have him as an RB3, but you will have to be patient and make sure the rest of your backs are able to contribute early.

Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders (ADP: 95.3)

Robinson averaged 14.3 touches and 13.2 fantasy points per game last season, showcasing a solid three-down skill set while starting 15 games for the Commanders. While his numbers weren’t eye-opening, Robinson’s ability to generate yards after contact stood out on film. With a new head coach in Dan Quinn, new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, the Commanders will likely rely heavily on the running game in 2024. Robinson faces backfield competition from Austin Ekeler, but he is still projected to lead the Commanders in touches and is a solid flex option with sleeper appeal.

Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans (ADP: 107.1)

Despite averaging 18.1 touches per game and finishing second in red zone touches last season, Pollard struggled to sustain steady fantasy production as the lead back for the Dallas Cowboys. He averaged only 13.1 fantasy points per game and is better suited for a committee role in Tennessee alongside Tyjae Spears. The Titans wasted no time signing Pollard to a sizable three-year contract this offseason, indicating he might be Tennessee’s lead back. He will likely see ample touches and should play more like the running back who made the Pro Bowl in 2022.

---

Wide receivers

Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals (ADP: 7.1)

Chase has the potential to be the top player in fantasy this season. He finished last season with a career-high 100 receptions to go along with 1,216 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, all despite Burrow being compromised or unavailable for the majority of the season. He has averaged 19.3 fantasy points in the 38 games he’s played with Burrow, and I think he should surpass those numbers with a healthy Burrow under center this season.

Deebo Samuel Sr., San Francisco 49ers (ADP: 48.7)

Samuel’s average draft position has fluctuated all summer, very likely due to teammate Brandon Aiyuk‘s trade request. Despite missing two games last season, Samuel finished 15th in fantasy points among receivers. While Christian McCaffrey cut into Samuel’s rushing attempts and targets, Samuel still led all wide receivers in red zone touches. The 49ers remain one of the most talented offenses in the league and Samuel is worth targeting whether Aiyuk stays in San Francisco or not. At 28 years old, he has the ADP of a lower-end WR2 but the fantasy ceiling of a WR1 thanks to his versatile usage and overall efficiency.

Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams (ADP: 50.7)

Kupp had a difficult 18 months, dealing with numerous injuries that cost him nearly half of the 2022 season and interfered with his preparation for 2023. He had a much smoother offseason this year after playing in 13 games last season. While Puka Nacua‘s breakout negatively impacted Kupp’s target volume and output (held below 40 receiving yards in six games), Kupp did have five games with 15 or more fantasy points. He has great rapport with Matthew Stafford and projections suggest Kupp will continue to have a critical role in the Rams’ passing game, positioning himself to provide excellent value as a low-end WR2 or flex option.

Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns (ADP: 83.4)

Cooper has been a consistently great fantasy receiver throughout his career. He has seen 100 or more targets in five consecutive seasons, and that trend should continue in 2024 catching passes from Deshaun Watson. Cooper averaged 17.6 fantasy points in the five full games Watson played last season. New Browns offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey ran a pass-heavy offense with the Buffalo Bills, so the Browns will likely rely more on the passing game, especially with Nick Chubb coming off a serious knee injury.

Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers (ADP: 103.4)

Johnson, known for his excellent route-running ability, averaged 8.3 targets per game during his first five seasons with the Pittsburgh Steelers. However, this hasn’t always translated to fantasy production, as he has averaged only 11.1 fantasy points per game over the past two seasons. Johnson faces minimal competition for targets in Carolina and will be the No. 1 receiver for second-year quarterback Bryce Young. The Panthers’ offense should improve under Canales, who revived the careers of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield. Johnson is one of the few receivers at his current ADP that is projected to see 100 or more targets.

---

Tight ends

Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (ADP: 23.5)

Kelce’s ADP makes him a compelling pick in drafts. Everyone knows his impressive track record, averaging 16.8 fantasy points per game since 2016 and finishing as the TE1 six times over that span. Kelce had a down season in 2023 by his standards, averaging 10.6 yards per reception with a 13.0% big play rate, both the lowest of his career. This was likely because of the Chiefs’ inconsistency at wide receiver, which was addressed this offseason. Things should improve this season, as Kelce is projected to lead the team in targets after averaging 8.8 targets per game last season.

George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers (ADP: 56.8)

Kittle has been a consistently strong fantasy option, finishing as a top-six tight end in fantasy points per game over the past five seasons. Even in a 49ers offense brimming with playmakers, Kittle recorded career highs in yards per target (11.3) and yards per reception (15.7) last season. He had seven games with 16 or more fantasy points but six games with six or fewer points, so managers will need to be comfortable with his scoring volatility.

Bargains worth a pick late in drafts

Quarterbacks: Matthew Stafford, Rams; Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars

Running backs: Chase Brown, Bengals; Antonio Gibson, Patriots; Kendre Miller, Saints; Rico Dowdle, Cowboys

Wide receivers: Courtland Sutton, Broncos; Curtis Samuel, Bills; DeMario Douglas, Patriots; Jerry Jeudy, Browns; Darnell Mooney, Falcons; Ladd McConkey, Chargers; Jameson Williams, Lions

Tight end: Jake Ferguson, Cowboys