AFC North betting preview: Ravens have slight edge over Bengals

The Baltimore Ravens led the way in an NFC North division that saw all four teams finish with winning records in 2023. Behind reigning MVP Lamar Jackson, the Ravens (+140) are the favorite to win the division this season, followed closely by the Cincinnati Bengals (+150).

You can bet that plenty of attention will be paid to the quarterbacks. Joe Burrow is looking to return to health and his typical star form. Cleveland Browns QB Deshaun Watson will try to recapture the Pro Bowl status he had in Houston. And the Pittsburgh Steelers added Russell Wilson and Justin Fields under center.

The Ravens’ biggest offseason splash was signing former Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry (-130 to rush for 10.5 TDs). They also will hope to get a full season out of TE Mark Andrews, who was limited to 10 games last season (ankle).

The Bengals are next in line in the North but are coming off a 9-8 record last season that left them as the lone team from the division to miss the playoffs. Much of the team’s fortunes will depend on the health of Burrow, who missed the final seven games of last season with a wrist injury. The Bengals added RB Zack Moss (+105 to rush for 725.5 yards) after Joe Mixon‘s departure to the Houston Texans, and Ja’Marr Chase (10-1 to lead the league in receiving yards) is among the NFL’s best receivers.

The Browns were bounced from the playoffs in the wild card round by the surprising Texans but are the third choice in the division in 2024. Early on, they will be without the services of RB Nick Chubb (knee), who is on the PUP list and will miss at least four games, leaving the door open for Jerome Ford to have an increased role.

The Steelers are the long shot to win the division (+750). Pittsburgh fell to the Buffalo Bills in the wild card round last season, but they have finished with a winning record every season under Mike Tomlin. Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren will handle backfield duties, and WR George Pickens (Even to record 925.5 receiving yards) is expected to make another leap in his third season in the league.

Here are all the odds for the AFC North teams and our thoughts on potential wagers.

Odds as of publication. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET.

2024 schedules/lines: Baltimore, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati
2023: Baltimore (13-4), Cleveland (11-6), Pittsburgh (10-7), Cincinnati (9-8)
Review: NFC East | NFC West | NFC North | NFC South | AFC East | AFC West
Coming up: AFC South (Thursday)

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Did you know?

Courtesy ESPN Stats & Information

• Three teams from the division reached the postseason (all but the Bengals), the only division that can make that case. All four finished 2023 with above-.500 records. Since divisions were first introduced in 1933, the only other division to accomplish that feat was the NFL West in 1935.

• The Bengals, Browns, Ravens and Steelers combined to go 31-13 in non-division games in 2023, by far the best record of any division in the league.

• ESPN Analytics gives the Ravens the best chance to win the AFC North at 46%, followed by the Bengals at 37%. The Browns (9%) and Steelers (8%) lag farther behind.

• ESPN Analytics projects that the Ravens will have the third-most wins in the NFL (10.6), while the Steelers (7.9) will have their first losing season since 2003.

• Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson form a dangerous complementary rushing duo. Since Jackson debuted in 2018: Henry leads in average rush yards after contact (2.4) Jackson leads in average rush yards before contact (4.7).

• Last season, Joe Burrow played the first 10 games of the season before suffering a season-ending wrist injury. Interestingly, the team posted better offensive numbers (3.2 more PPG, 49 more YPG) in its final seven games without the former No. 1 overall pick.

• Ja’Marr Chase is one of four players in NFL history to have at least 80 receptions and 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first three seasons (Justin Jefferson, Michael Thomas, Odell Beckham Jr.).

• The Browns’ 37-30 (.552) record since 2020 is its best in a four-season span since going 41-21-1 (.659) from 1986-89, a stretch that included three division titles and three playoff wins.

• Reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett is the only Browns player to ever win the award and has racked up double-digit sacks in each of the last six seasons, the longest active streak in the NFL.

• The Steelers have finished .500 or better in 20 straight seasons (including all 17 seasons of recently-extended Mike Tomlin’s tenure as head coach). That is the second-longest streak in NFL history, one shy of tying the Dallas Cowboys from 1965-85.

Staff bets

Steelers OVER 8.5 wins (+120)

Occam’s razor says the simplest explanation is often the best, so the simple explanation is that Mike Tomlin’s teams always win at least half of their games. Tomlin has famously never had a losing record in his 17-year career as a head coach, and in the three seasons that the NFL has played 17 games, the Steelers have won nine, nine and 10 games, despite consistently poor quarterback play at the end of the Ben Roethlisberger era and beyond.

This offseason the Steelers added Wilson and Fields to the mix, giving themselves a good chance at having a legitimate NFL starting-caliber quarterback at the helm and thus a reasonable shot at double-digit wins. Whether that happens, we’ve got almost two decades of evidence that one way or another Tomlin’s Steelers are not going to have a losing record. — Andre Snellings