Our guide to every game in Week 6: Matchup previews, predictions, picks and nuggets
-
NFL Nation, ESPN
The Week 6 NFL schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with great matchups, and we’ve got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend.
Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. The ESPN Research team provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X factors, and three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full Week 6 slate, including Patriots quarterback Drake Maye making his NFL starting debut against the Texans and the Lions visiting the Cowboys. It all culminates with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Bills and the Jets on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
Jump to a matchup:
JAX-CHI | ARI-GB | IND-TEN
HOU-NE | TB-NO | CLE-PHI
WSH-BAL | LAC-DEN | PIT-LV
DET-DAL | ATL-CAR | CIN-NYG
BUF-NYJ
Thursday: SF 36, SEA 24
Byes: KC, LAR, MIA, MIN
9:30 a.m. ET | NFL Network | ESPN BET: CHI -1.5 (44.5 O/U)
Jaguars storyline to watch: This will be the first of the Jaguars’ back-to-back games in London (Jacksonville plays New England on Oct. 20 at Wembley Stadium). The Jaguars have won three of their past four games overseas and swept their back-to-back games in London last season (Atlanta and Buffalo). The experience of playing annually in the UK could certainly be an advantage, especially against a team with a rookie QB in Caleb Williams. “Just having the experience of going over there, you kind of know how to handle it, you know what to expect, you know how you’re going to feel,” QB Trevor Lawrence said. — Mike Dirocco
Bears storyline to watch: For a team that has historically been built on defense and a ground-and-pound rushing attack, it’s hard to believe Chicago tied its longest streak over the past 30 years when the Bears rushed for multiple touchdowns in two straight games against the Rams and Panthers. Their last streak of three straight multiple rushing touchdown games was in 1990, and the way D’Andre Swift has been playing could lead Chicago to add another against the Jaguars. Swift has notched over 100 scrimmage yards in back-to-back weeks, which is tied for the longest streak of his career. — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: The Jaguars are 1-12 versus NFC North opponents dating to 2012. Their only win was over the Bears in October 2016.
Bold prediction: Lawrence will record an under-40 QBR. The Bears’ pass defense has been excellent as Chicago ranks first in EPA per dropback and second in pass rush win rate. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Bears WR DJ Moore. Williams had his best game of the season last week. Moore benefited with eight targets and a season-high 27.5 fantasy points. Jacksonville’s defense gives up the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, so Moore could be in for another big day. See Week 6 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: This is the first time the Bears have been favored in a game outside of Chicago since 2021 (-2.5 at Lions in Week 12). Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Bears 24, Jags 21
Moody’s pick: Bears 27, Jaguars 24
Walder’s pick: Bears 24, Jaguars 17
FPI prediction: CHI, 59.0% (by an average of 3.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Three areas where the Jaguars improved in Week 5 … Bears QB Williams taking control
0:33
Why Fulghum expects a big game from DJ Moore
Tyler Fulghum explains why he’s taking DJ Moore to have 60+ receiving yards in the Bears’ Week 6 matchup vs. the Jaguars.
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: GB -4.5 (47.5 O/U)
Cardinals storyline to watch: Kyler Murray leads all quarterbacks in yards per rush with an average of 10.7 — no other quarterback is averaging more than 7.3. For Arizona to go into Lambeau Field and leave with a win, Murray’s legs will have to be a factor — not the factor, but a factor — against a Packers defense that’s giving up 4.4 yards per carry, which is 16th in the league. — Josh Weinfuss
Packers storyline to watch: QB Jordan Love has already thrown five interceptions, tied for fourth most in the league, despite playing in only three games. He started this way last season, too, with 10 interceptions in his first nine games before throwing just one in the final eight games. The Cardinals’ defense is tied for eighth in interceptions this season with four. — Rob Demovsky
Stat to know: Murray is completing 65.4% when pressured, which is second in the NFL behind Jayden Daniels (67.9%).
Bold prediction: Packers WR Dontayvion Wicks will record five-plus receptions. Wicks has a 15 catch score, which is just terrible. But I don’t think he’ll play anywhere near that level going forward — he had a 64 catch score last year. In other words, he’s getting open but he just needs to bring the ball in to get those reception totals up. And I think he will Sunday. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Packers RB Josh Jacobs. The Cardinals’ secondary has been surprisingly strong, but this is still a great spot for Jacobs. He’s coming off his best performance of the year — 16.4 fantasy points against the Rams. The Cardinals’ defense allows the eighth-most fantasy points per game to running backs, and Jacobs has averaged 19.6 touches per game. See Week 6 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Packers are 3-0 outright and ATS against teams with losing records. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Packers 30, Cardinals 28
Moody’s pick: Packers 34, Cardinals 27
Walder’s pick: Packers 29, Cardinals 23
FPI prediction: GB, 61.7% (by an average of 4.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Cardinals RG Hernandez (knee) done for season … Packers TE Kraft puts DBs on notice
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: TEN -2.5 (43.5 O/U)
Colts storyline to watch: This is a matchup featuring the stingiest and most porous defenses in the NFL, according to yards per game. The Titans have allowed a league-low 243.8 yards per game behind a revamped unit. The Colts, meanwhile, are yielding a league-high 419.2 yards and are coming off a loss in which they gave up a season-high 37 points to the Jaguars. Indianapolis is hoping to make some strides this week with the potential returns of DE Kwity Paye (quad) and CB Kenny Moore II (hip), but former Pro Bowl DT DeForest Buckner (ankle) remains on injured reserve. His absence continues to be felt. — Stephen Holder
Titans storyline to watch: The Titans’ offensive line has proved to be significantly better at run blocking than pass protection. Look for the Titans to work the rushing attack against a Colts run defense that is allowing 157 yards per game. That will be the case regardless of whether QB Will Levis is able to play through a right shoulder injury. Titans LG Peter Skoronski isn’t taking the matchup lightly, “It’s not like they’re getting gashed in a lot of ways, it’s still a huge challenge. Those guys are really physical and fast.” — Turron Davenport
Stat to know: The Titans have won eight straight games following their bye, which is the second-longest active streak in the NFL.
Bold prediction: Colts WR Adonai Mitchell will have 60-plus receiving yards. There’s a big game coming for him, it’s just a matter of when. The rookie wideout has a 71 open score and with Michael Pittman Jr.(back) and Josh Downs (toe) banged up, this could be the week. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Titans RB Tony Pollard. Pollard is one of the few Titans you can confidently start. He has been outstanding, scoring 15 or more fantasy points in three of his four games. Pollard has seen 19 or more touches in three of those games. Coming out of the Titans’ Week 5 bye, he has a great matchup against a Colts defense that allows the fourth-most rushing yards and fifth-most receiving yards to running backs. See Week 6 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Colts are 4-1 ATS this season with three straight covers. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Colts 24, Titans 21
Moody’s pick: Colts 33, Titans 30
Walder’s pick: Titans 20, Colts 17
FPI prediction: IND, 52.5% (by an average of 0.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Three things the Titans need from QB Levis … Colts need WR Pierce more involved … Titans DT Simmons back from ligament injury
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: HOU -6.5 (38.5 O/U)
Texans storyline to watch: This will be the second time the Texans face a rookie quarterback this season. Houston beat the Bears and QB Caleb Williams in Week 2; he finished 23-of-37 passing for 174 yards with two interceptions and was sacked seven times. Coach DeMeco Ryans said, “We’ll play our defense. It won’t change,” in regard to game-planning for Drake Maye, who got the nod this week. — DJ Bien-Aime
Patriots storyline to watch: Maye, the No. 3 pick, is set to make his first career start. Texans QB C.J. Stroud complimented Maye this week citing his versatility and accuracy. The Patriots have a 7-0 all-time record against the Texans at Gillette Stadium (5-0 regular season, 2-0 postseason). — Mike Reiss
Stat to know: The Texans are 0-7 all time on the road versus the Patriots, including the playoffs, which is their second-most losses without a road win against a single opponent. They’re 0-8 against the Ravens.
Bold prediction: Maye will rush for a touchdown. Maye ran for 574 yards (sacks excluded) last season at UNC, and he might find it’s a more reliable piece of his game to translate right away. Houston will probably still win big, but at least it will be good for Maye’s fantasy managers. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Texans WR Tank Dell. Dell should see more action with Nico Collins (hamstring) on injured reserve. Dell has had a slow start this season, with only one game of 10 or more fantasy points. But last season, he posted four games of 20 or more fantasy points before a broken fibula cut his rookie season short after 11 games. Dell should be busy against the Patriots. See Week 6 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Underdogs of at least six points are 15-2 ATS this season (10-7 outright). Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Texans 33, Patriots 14
Moody’s pick: Texans 27, Patriots 13
Walder’s pick: Texans 26, Patriots 10
FPI prediction: HOU, 70.1% (by an average of 7.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: How can QB Maye help Patriots? … How Texans navigate loss of WR Collins
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: TB -3.5 (41.5 O/U)
Buccaneers storyline to watch: After a heartbreaking overtime loss to the Falcons, the Bucs are trying to avoid an 0-2 divisional start. According to ESPN Research, only five teams that started their seasons 0-2 in the divisions have won them since the current format was installed in 2002. And in the greater scheme of things, they’ve got a community reeling from not only Hurricane Helene but now Hurricane Milton, and as wide receiver Mike Evans said, “We’re not even just playing for just football now. We’re trying to play for something a little bit bigger.” — Jenna Laine
Saints storyline to watch: The Saints will be starting a quarterback with no experience after Derek Carr injured his oblique against the Chiefs on Monday, as rookie Spencer Rattler will get the nod with two games scheduled on short weeks. Playing backups is almost normal for the Saints now. They started three QBs after Jameis Winston was hurt in 2021 and went with Andy Dalton after Winston was hurt in 2022. Carr left for three games last season because of injuries, and the Saints were 0-3 in those games. — Katherine Terrell
Stat to know: A loss for the Saints will mark their longest losing streak (four) since losing five straight in 2021.
Bold prediction: Saints WR Rashid Shaheed will be held to under 20 receiving yards. Last season at South Carolina, Rattler averaged just 6.9 air yards per pass attempt, which ranked 113th out of 125 qualified FBS quarterbacks. That doesn’t bode well for Shaheed. — Walder
Injuries: Buccaneers | Saints
Fantasy X factor: Saints RB Alvin Kamara. With Rattler set to make his NFL debut, the Saints would be smart to lean heavily on Kamara, who’s dangerous running between the tackles and catching passes. The Buccaneers’ defense gives up the sixth-most receptions and the third-most receiving yards to running backs. Kamara should be a key part of New Orleans’ game plan. See Week 6 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Buccaneers are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 games as underdogs. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Buccaneers 24, Saints 14
Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 21 Saints 20
Walder’s pick: Buccaneers 26, Saints 16
FPI prediction: TB, 59.8% (by an average of 3.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Mike Evans: Bucs playing for something ‘bigger’ … What to know about Saints rookie QB Rattler … Bucs face difficult slate
1:10
Harry Douglas: Davante Adams trade would make Ravens best team in NFL
Harry Douglas and Dan Orlovsky give their best landing spots for wide receiver Davante Adams.
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: PHI -10 (42.5 O/U)
Browns storyline to watch: The Browns are off to a historically bad start on offense. They have scored under 20 points in all five games this season, their longest streak to start a season since 1999, despite all of their opponents ranking in the bottom half of the NFL in EPA per play. With no sweeping changes expected — Cleveland is sticking with QB Deshaun Watson and coach Kevin Stefanski is keeping playcalling duties — can the Browns find an identity against an Eagles defense that ranks 26th in EPA per play? — Daniel Oyefusi
Eagles storyline to watch: WR A.J. Brown (hamstring) is expected to play for the first time since Week 1. The Eagles scored 34 points in the opener against the Packers. In the three games without Brown, they averaged 17 points. With RT Lane Johnson and WR DeVonta Smith also expected to be back this week from concussions, Philadelphia should be close to full health. — Tim McManus
Stat to know: Watson has a 21 total QBR this season, which is the fourth-worst total QBR in team’s first five games of the season among 480 QBs to start all five games since ESPN introduced the metric in 2006.
Bold prediction: Eagles QB Jalen Hurts will throw three or more touchdowns. With Brown and Smith returning and Philadelphia coming off a bye, I think the Eagles’ passing game is going to find its rhythm against the single-high heavy Browns. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Browns WR Amari Cooper. Cooper has seen plenty of targets, but the fantasy points haven’t followed. He has had eight or more targets in every game, yet managed only 10 or more fantasy points in two. This has made Cooper a boom-or-bust option. The good news? He faces an Eagles defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 6 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Eagles are 1-6 ATS in their past seven games as favorites. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Eagles 28, Browns 17
Moody’s pick: Eagles 31, Browns 19
Walder’s pick: Eagles 31, Browns 20
FPI prediction: PHI, 69.5% (by an average of 8.0 points)
Matchup must-reads: Stefanski: Sticking with Watson at QB … Sirianni, Eagles facing key stretch … What QB Watson’s first 17 games in Cleveland have shown
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BAL -6.5 (51.5 O/U)
Commanders storyline to watch: Washington’s run defense ranks 31st in yards per carry allowed (5.1) and 22nd in yards per game (130.0). The Commanders are coming off their best showing, allowing only 104 yards versus the Browns — but Cleveland is far from the Ravens when it comes to rushing the ball. Baltimore ranks first in yards per rush (6.1) and rushing yards per game (211.2), thanks to the NFL’s leading rusher in RB Derrick Henry and QB Lamar Jackson. The Commanders have allowed an NFL-worst 24 carries of 10-plus yards, while the Ravens own the most such carries (28). — John Keim
Ravens storyline to watch: The struggling Ravens’ defense, which has allowed the seventh-most points per game this season (25.2), faces QB Jayden Daniels and the highest-scoring team in the NFL (31.0). But Baltimore has historically dominated young quarterbacks. Since John Harbaugh became coach in 2008, the Ravens are 23-7 (.767) against rookie starting quarterbacks, which trails only the Steelers (24-5). Baltimore prides itself on how it disguises coverages, which can keep a first-year quarterback off-balance. “He definitely hasn’t seen a defense like ours,” middle linebacker Roquan Smith said. — Jamison Hensley
Stat to know: This will be the third starting QB matchup since 1950 between the reigning Heisman trophy winner and reigning MVP. (The others were Joe Burrow against Jackson in 2020, and Jim Plunkett versus John Brodie in 1971).
Bold prediction: At least 62 points will be scored, clearing the current ESPN BET total by 10 points. These are two red-hot offenses — they rank first and second in both EPA per dropback and EPA per designed carry — going against bottom-half defenses (at least so far). It should be a points bonanza. — Walder
Injuries: Commanders | Ravens
Fantasy X factor: Commanders WR Terry McLaurin. McLaurin and Daniels have finally found their rhythm. McLaurin has scored 13 or more fantasy points in three straight games, with two of those passing 18 points. He has racked up 24 targets during that span. This week, McLaurin faces a Ravens defense that allows the eighth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 6 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Commanders have won their past two games as underdogs (plus-7.5 at Bengals, plus-3.5 at Cardinals). Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Commanders 31, Ravens 28
Moody’s pick: Ravens 38, Commanders 24
Walder’s pick: Ravens 42, Commanders 24
FPI prediction: BAL, 64.3% (by an average of 6.0 points)
Matchup must-reads: Daniels keeps up ‘superman’ act against Browns … How Lamar’s improbable TD powered Ravens past Bengals … Daniels doesn’t like Jackson comparisons
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: LAC -3 (35.5 O/U)
Chargers storyline to watch: The Chargers have lost seven of their past 10 matchups against the Broncos and haven’t won in Denver since 2018. The Chargers are on a two-game skid and haven’t scored a touchdown in the second half since Week 1. The Broncos, meanwhile, have the second-best defense in points allowed per game (14.6). — Kris Rhim
Broncos storyline to watch: The Broncos — tied for 22nd in scoring (19.2), 28th in yards per play (4.5), 31st on third down (24.6%) and 26th in the red zone efficiency (43.8%) — get the league’s top scoring defense (allowing 12.5 points per game) as the Chargers are coming off a bye as well. The key for the Broncos may be patience; nothing will be easy against Jesse Minter’s defense. QB Bo Nix has not thrown an interception in the Broncos’ three-game win streak; he threw four in the two losses to open the season. — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: The Broncos have the most pressures in NFL since Week 3 (49) and the second-most sacks (15). The 72 points they’ve allowed this season are their lowest through five games since 2009.
Bold prediction: Broncos CB Riley Moss will record an interception in a second straight game. Moss has a target rate of 23%, the highest of any corner, with an average of 1.3 yards per coverage snap allowed. Opponents turn to Moss as they try to avoid Pat Surtain II, which should grant him interception opportunities. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins. This is a great chance for Dobbins to get back on track. The Broncos’ secondary has been tough, holding DK Metcalf, George Pickens, Mike Evans and Garrett Wilson to under 50 receiving yards this season. But they’re much easier to run on than pass against. See Week 6 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Each of the past three times the Chargers were road favorites in Denver, the Broncos won outright (2019 to 2021). Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Chargers 24, Broncos 21
Moody’s pick: Broncos 23, Chargers 20
Walder’s pick: Chargers 19, Broncos 16
FPI prediction: LAC, 54.4% (by an average of 2.0 points)
Matchup must-reads: Chargers ‘not panicking’ but look to be ‘crisper’ on offense … Nix breakout? What’s next for the rookie QB … Does QB Herbert need to pass more for Chargers to win?
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: PIT -3 (36.5 O/U)
Steelers storyline to watch: Coach Mike Tomlin left the door ajar for QB Russell Wilson to be active against the Raiders, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s going to supplant Justin Fields as the starter after going through his first full practice since aggravating his calf injury on Sept. 5. The Steelers, though, need something to jump start their offense after losing two of three games in large part to slow starts. Despite playing depleted defenses, the Steelers have averaged just 4.3 points in the first half compared to 16 in the second half. The Raiders’ defense is banged up with top free agency acquisition DT Christian Wilkins sidelined indefinitely with a foot injury. — Brooke Pryor
Raiders storyline to watch: The Raiders are looking for a spark, so for the second time in a calendar year, QB Aidan O’Connell finds himself coming off the bench to be the starter. Last season, then-rookie O’Connell supplanted Jimmy Garoppolo. Now, O’Connell is replacing Gardner Minshew, who won a tight training camp battle for the gig. With O’Connell having the bigger arm but being substantially less mobile than Minshew, and the Steelers boasting a fearsome pass rush, expect a lot of max protection and quick-passing calls. — Paul Gutierrez
Stat to know: The Steelers have allowed an average of 23.5 points per game in their two straight losses after allowing 8.7 points in three straight wins to start the season.
Bold prediction: Raiders edge Maxx Crosby will record at least two sacks. Fields has been better about avoiding sacks this season, but his 8.1% sack rate is higher than average. And Crosby will be facing Broderick Jones, who is a shade below average in pass block win rate. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Steelers RB Najee Harris. Harris is primed for a big workload against the Raiders, with Jaylen Warren (knee) doubtful and Cordarrelle Patterson (knee) out. He has averaged only 10.2 fantasy points per game this season, but he has seen 16 or more touches in every game. Harris should find success against a Raiders defense that gives up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. See Week 6 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Raiders have covered five straight games following a loss (2-0 ATS this season). Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Steelers 20, Raiders 17
Moody’s pick: Steelers 26, Raiders 14
Walder’s pick: Steelers 19, Raiders 16
FPI prediction: PIT, 56.2% (by an average of 2.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Pickens says he was unaware of eye black rule … QB O’Connell to start for the Raiders
0:29
Why Fulghum likes the over for the Falcons
Tyler Fulghum breaks down why he expects a high-scoring game for the Falcons vs. the Panthers.
4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: DET -3 (52.5 O/U)
Lions storyline to watch: A controversial ending to last year’s matchup became a trending topic when Dallas beat Detroit after a potential game-winning 2-point conversion by Lions OL Taylor Decker was negated by an illegal touching penalty for not reporting as eligible. However, Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson said, “It’s last year. We’re on a mission this year and we’re not going to let the past define us.” QB Jared Goff also emphasized that the Dallas loss isn’t in the back of their heads as they prepare to face the Cowboys again, but more so helping Detroit secure a victory over Dallas for the first time since 2013. — Eric Woodyard
Cowboys storyline to watch: Entering the season, the Cowboys had won 16 straight home games, which was the second-longest home winning streak in franchise history. Then, they lost their first two home games this season, and if they lose a third straight Sunday to the Lions, it will mark their first three-game home losing streak — with their starting quarterback — since 2006. The Cowboys lost three straight at home in 2020 without Dak Prescott and in 2010, 2014 (one start) and 2015 without Tony Romo. — Todd Archer
Stat to know: After completing 19 consecutive passes against the Seahawks in Week 4, Goff could match the longest streak in NFL history with six straight against the Cowboys. Philip Rivers set the record of 25 in 2018.
Bold prediction: Cowboys LB DeMarvion Overshown will lead all players in combined tackles in Week 6. He’s the No. 1 player in my sack projections for the week, and you can see why as he has the 26th-highest tackle per snap rate of any player in the league. He played 100% of snaps last week and now faces the run-heavy Lions. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Lions RB David Montgomery. Through Week 4, the Lions led the league in running back touches. Montgomery has had a rushing touchdown and put up 15 or more fantasy points in every game. He should continue to thrive against a Cowboys defense that gives up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs. See Week 6 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Prescott has not closed as at least a three-point home underdog since 2018. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Lions 34, Cowboys 28
Moody’s pick: Lions 31, Cowboys 27
Walder’s pick: Lions 28, Cowboys 17
FPI prediction: DET, 57.2% (by an average of 3.0 points)
Matchup must-reads: WR Williams’ complicated journey to NFL stardom … Dowdle giving hope to Cowboys’ struggling run game? … City of Detroit trolls St. Brown’s brother on social media
4:25 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: ATL -6 (46.5 O/U)
Falcons storyline to watch: QB Kirk Cousins has thrown a league-high eight touchdowns when not under pressure in 2024, with no interceptions, but has a league-high five interceptions (with no touchdowns) when under pressure. The Panthers, meanwhile, are 29th in the league in pass rush win rate (31.7%). Can Cousins, coming off a franchise-high 509-yard performance, continue to shake off the rust in Charlotte? — Marc Raimondi
Panthers storyline to watch: The Panthers’ defense ranks near the bottom of the league in almost every major category, and they aren’t very good offensively, either. But one of their big weaknesses, third down efficiency, has a chance to improve. A Carolina team ranked 28th (28.3%) in the league faces the worst third-down defense (48.5%) in Atlanta. — David Newton
Stat to know: The Falcons have trailed in the final minute of the fourth quarter in all three of their wins this season. They’re the first team in NFL history to do that within the first five games.
Bold prediction: Bijan Robinson will be the highest scoring fantasy running back in Week 6, with an impact in both the run and pass game. The Panthers’ defense is the cure to all woes. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Panthers WR Diontae Johnson. Johnson has a great opportunity to bounce back after a quieter Week 5, where he managed just six targets and 5.9 fantasy points. It’s worth remembering he had 14 targets and put up 26.2 fantasy points in Week 3, followed by 13 targets and 21.3 points in Week 4. The Falcons have given up the eighth-most receptions per game to wide receivers this season. See Week 6 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Unders are 17-5 in Falcons-Panthers matchups since 2013. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Falcons 21, Panthers 13
Moody’s pick: Falcons 35, Panthers 21
Walder’s pick: Falcons 34, Panthers 23
FPI prediction: ATL, 62.0% (by an average of 5.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Cousins-Mooney connection is emerging … How coach Canales is keeping 1-4 Panthers positive
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: CIN -3.5 (47.5 O/U)
Bengals storyline to watch: The matchup between Cincinnati’s offense and the Giants defense will dictate the outcome. Cincinnati is second in the league in points per drive and QB Joe Burrow is second in total QBR (73.6). But in the past three weeks, the Giants have had a very disruptive pass rush (fourth in PRWR (50%), first in sacks per dropback (11.6%), and only three of their opponents past 34 drives have had snaps in the red zone. — Ben Baby
Giants storyline to watch: The Giants have won just one of their past 14 prime-time games with Daniel Jones at quarterback, giving him the worst record of any quarterback in prime time since the 1970 merger (minimum 10 starts). Jones didn’t seem all that happy hearing about that streak entering Sunday night’s matchup with the Bengals. “I think we’ve got to win more games,” he said. “You look at the past, over the years, we haven’t won enough, period.” This will be yet another chance to shift the narrative in a game where they are underdogs. — Jordan Raanan
Stat to know: The Bengals are 0-4 all time on road versus the Giants — one of two franchises they have never defeated on the road (Vikings 0-6).
Bold prediction: The Bengals will score at least 34 points. Despite their 1-4 record, Cincinnati’s offense ranks third in EPA per play and Burrow ranks second in QBR — which would be his best finish by far if he can keep up that pace. I’m not worried about the Bengals scoring points here. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Giants WR Wan’Dale Robinson. With Malik Nabers still in concussion protocol, it’s uncertain whether he’ll be cleared to face the Bengals. Regardless of Nabers’ status, Robinson should remain a key part of the Giants’ passing game. The Bengals’ defense allows the 12th-most receptions per game to wide receivers. Robinson has seen eight or more targets in four of his five games this season, making him a reliable option. See Week 6 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Unders are 5-0 in Sunday night games this season, 31-10 in the past three seasons and 60-31-2 since 2019. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Bengals 24, Giants 21
Moody’s pick: Bengals 30, Giants 27
Walder’s pick: Bengals 34, Giants 17
FPI prediction: CIN, 60.6% (by an average of 4.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Bengals defenders hold meeting, know ‘we have to do our part’ … What’s next for RB Tracy after breakout game? … Bengals’ revamped defense struggling in 1-4 start
8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | ESPN BET: BUF -2.5 (40.5 O/U)
Bills storyline to watch: The big question for the Bills going into this matchup is if the offense can turn itself around enough to avoid the team’s first three game losing streak with Josh Allen starting — and the team’s first overall since losing four straight in 2018. The Bills are averaging 15 points per game over the team’s past two games after averaging 37.3 points per game in the three-game winning streak to start the season. There is a question surrounding the availability of leading receiver Khalil Shakir (ankle), who has yet to participate in practice and missed last week vs. the Texans. The Bills will need other players to step up and support Allen, especially if Shakir is not available. — Alaina Getzenberg
Jets storyline to watch: Jeff Ulbrich makes his interim head-coaching debut, inheriting a two-game losing streak but only a one-game deficit from the top of the AFC East. One of Ulbrich’s goals is to eliminate the Jets’ reputation as perennially slow starters, which plagued them through the Robert Saleh era. This season, they have almost as many penalties in the first quarter (13) as points (14). Ulbrich, who demoted playcaller Nathaniel Hackett and replaced him with Todd Downing, said the team will play with a “heightened sense of urgency.” — Rich Cimini
Stat to know: The Bills have never lost three straight games following a 3-0 start in franchise history. They’ve started 3-0 12 times.
Bold prediction: The Jets will fail to sack Allen. Though Will McDonald IV (6.0 sacks) has been a pleasant surprise, the Jets’ pass rush is lacking. It ranks 26th in pass rush win rate. The Jets are outmatched by the Bills’ offensive line (second in pass block win rate), and Allen has a sack rate under 4% this year. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Jets RB Breece Hall. Despite scoring 18 or more fantasy points in each of his first three games, Hall has managed just 10.5 fantasy points over the past two weeks behind an offensive line that ranks 27th in run block win rate. However, there’s some hope this week as New York faces a Bills defense that gives up the most fantasy points per game to running backs. See Week 6 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: All three Bills road games this season have gone under the total. Four straight Jets games have gone under the total. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Bills 28, Jets 21
Moody’s pick: Bills 24, Jets 19
Walder’s pick: Bills 23, Jets 20
FPI prediction: BUF, 54.9% (by an average of 2.0 points)
Matchup must-reads: Bills’ offensive mantra — ‘everybody eats’ — being tested … Will firing Saleh solve Jets’ struggles? … … Jets demote OC Hackett, tap Todd Downing to call offense
