Betting buzz: Big Ten championship game attracting lopsided action
Everything that happens in sports has some additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.
Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.
Key links: Sports betting home | NFL odds page | College football odds page | ESPN BET 
Big Ten Championship Game attracting lopsided action
David Purdum: Penn State is 1-13 straight up against teams ranked in the top five under coach James Franklin and has lost nine consecutive games as an underdog. The betting public expects those trends to continue Saturday when the Nittany Lions take on undefeated and top-ranked Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game.
The line has been shifting back and forth from Oregon -3 to -3.5 throughout the week, while the early betting has been lopsided on the Ducks. As of Friday afternoon, approximately 87.1% of the money wagered on the game’s point spread was on Oregon at ESPN BET. The Ducks have attracted more bets and more money wagered than any other team playing in a conference championship game this weekend at multiple sportsbooks.
The Nittany Lions are 6-23 against the spread against top-five teams in the last 30 seasons, the worst such record in the FBS during that span, according to ESPN Research.
Odds & Ends
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The line on the SEC Championship Game between Texas and Georgia opened as low as pick ’em but got as high as Longhorns -3 during the week. Texas is one of four teams to be favored in every game this season (Ohio State, Miami, and Texas State), but this would be the smallest spread the Longhorns have had. Texas was a 4.5-point favorite over Georgia and Texas A&M earlier this year. Georgia is an underdog for the second time in its last 56 games, both times against Texas. The Bulldogs beat the Longhorns 30-15 in October in Austin. Both teams are expected to qualify for the College Football Playoff regardless of Saturday’s result.
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The ACC and Sun Belt championship games featured the most line movement this week. Clemson opened as a small favorite over SMU in the ACC Championship Game. The line flipped to the Mustangs, who were 2.5-point favorites on Saturday morning. In the Sun Belt, UL-Lafayette opened as low as 3.5-point favorites. The Rajin’ Cajuns were as high as 6-point favorites Saturday morning.
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For the first time since 2006, all nine conference championship games have point spreads under a touchdown.
More from ESPN Betting:
Buckeyes still garnering respect from bettors, oddsmakers
David Purdum: Ohio State‘s shocking loss to Michigan as a 20.5-point underdog last Saturday did little to impact the Buckeyes’ standing with bettors and oddsmakers.
Ohio State’s odds to win the national title drifted slightly, back to +450 and behind only Oregon after the loss, but bettors continued to support the Buckeyes. At ESPN BET, Ohio State attracted more bets and more money to win the national title this week than any other team, and the Buckeyes remain the biggest liability for BetMGM in its odds to win the College Football Playoff.
Oddsmakers say that Ohio State could be favored over every other team in the playoffs. Adam Bjorn, head oddsmaker for Prime Sports, told ESPN that the Buckeyes remain No. 1 in his power ratings and believes Ohio State could benefit from not playing in the Big Ten Championship Game.
Caesars Sportsbook’s Joey Feazel said he’d have Ohio State favored over Oregon in a rematch. The Ducks nipped the Buckeyes 32-31 in Oregon on Oct. 12. Feazel added that Georgia and Texas also would likely be favored over the undefeated Ducks, who are No. 1 in the latest playoff rankings.
Ohio State was sixth in the College Football Playoff rankings that were released Tuesday.
Packers-Lions points spread moves ahead of “Thursday Night Football”
Purdum: The Detroit Lions were shrinking favorites on Thursday morning ahead of their prime time NFC North showdown with the Green Bay Packers.
On Sunday, the Lions opened as consensus 5-point favorites, but the line quickly dropped to -3.5 and has been flirting with the key number of -3 this week. ESPN BET reported Thursday that approximately 63% of the money that had been wagered on the game’s point spread was on the Lions. Other sportsbooks were reporting more balanced action on the game, with the underdog Packers attracting slightly more money at BetMGM.
While the point spread was shrinking, the total was growing and was up to as high as 52 on Thursday morning.
The game features two of the best coaches against the spread in the Super Bowl era in the Lions’ Dan Campbell and the Packers’ Matt LaFleur. The Lions are 44-19 against the spread in Campbell’s four years, the best four-year cover stretch by any team in the Super Bowl era. Green Bay is 56-39 against the spread under LaFleur. That’s the third-best mark to start a career of any coach since 1966, according to ESPN Research. (Campbell is No. 1).
LaFleur has been especially good in the underdog role, going 18-13 straight-up and 22-9 against the spread.
Alabama small underdogs to make CFP
David Purdum: Alabama begins the week as a small underdog to get a spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff at multiple sportsbooks.
The Crimson Tide were +105 underdogs to make the CFP on Monday at ESPN BET. An SMU win over Clemson in the ACC Championship Game would seemingly boost the Tide’s hopes of reaching the playoff. SMU is a 2.5-point favorite to start the week.
“Alabama has quality wins and a solid résumé, which makes them a key team to watch as other teams that seem to be on the bubble, Clemson and SMU, square off in the ACC Championship,” said Adrian Horton, director of North American sports trading at ESPN BET.
ESPN BET is offering odds to make the playoff on three other teams considered to be on the bubble, in addition to Alabama:
Miami (Fla.): Yes (+800) | No (-1800)
SMU: Yes (-320) | No (+230)
South Carolina: Yes (+380) | No (-600)
The SEC Championship Game saw early line movement, with Texas growing from a 1-point to a 3-point favorite over Georgia.
“I expect this line to be around the key number of 3 as we get closer to game time and would expect to see a majority of Texas money come in throughout the week,” Joey Feazel, head football trader for Caesars Sportsbook, told ESPN on Sunday.
Feazel said while no large bets had come in on the game as of Sunday, sharper bettors appeared to be on Texas.
Oregon was a 3.5-point favorite over Penn State in the Big Ten Championship Game, but the top-ranked and undefeated Ducks would still be underdogs to three teams, according to Feazel.
“Oregon would not be favored against every other team at this point,” Feazel said. “We would have Georgia, Texas and Ohio State still slightly favored over Oregon.”
Head-scratching betting on New York Jets continues
Doug Greenberg and David Purdum: It keeps happening. Week after week, bets from respected bettors keep showing up on the New York Jets. It hasn’t gone well.
The Jets lost 26-21 to the underdog Seattle Seahawks on Sunday and fell to 3-9 on the season. The Jets are the first team in the Super Bowl era to be favored in nine of their first 12 games and go 3-9 or worse straight up, according to ESPN Research.
It’s not just diehard Jets fans betting with their hearts, either. It’s actually sharp bettors, who have enough respect from bookmakers to make the line move.
This week, the Jets opened as 1-point home underdogs against the Seahawks but closed as 1.5-point favorites. It was the fourth time in the past six weeks that the Jets opened as underdogs but closed as favorites. It was the seventh consecutive game that the point spread shifted toward the Jets during the week. The Jets are 1-6 straight up and against the spread during that stretch.
“The sharp groups came back on the Jets again … and they lost again,” John Murray, vice president of race and sports at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, said. “That seems like the one constant in the NFL this season: The sharp groups bet on the Jets, and the Jets lose.”
Murray said he understood the support for Jets this week. New York was coming off a bye, and the Seahawks were in a sandwich spot between division games against the Arizona Cardinals and had to travel across the country.
“But at some point, you have to think there’s something better to do with your money than bet these guys every week,” he added.
Some bettors are still backing the Jets to win the Super Bowl. Caesars Sportsbook reported taking Super Bowl bets on the Jets at 1,000-1 from “quite a few courageous customers” as recently as this past week.
Entering the week, BetMGM had liabilities on only three teams winning the Super Bowl: the Detroit Lions, Pittsburgh Steelers and Jets.
“We’re not too worried about the Jets,” Christian Cipollini, trading manager at BetMGM, said in a recent phone interview with ESPN.
At BetMGM, more money has been on the Jets to win the Super Bowl than 25 teams, including the Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Chargers and Steelers.
The Jets opened as 6.5-point underdogs against the Miami Dolphins for Week 14.
Tomlin’s Steelers win seventh straight as underdogs
The Steelers won outright as underdogs yet again, this time after getting three points on the road against the Cincinnati Bengals.
It’s Pittsburgh’s seventh consecutive regular-season win as an underdog, one short of the all-time record set by the 2008-09 Bengals.
Coach Mike Tomlin improved to 52-43 straight up as an underdog, tying Andy Reid for the most such wins among active head coaches. Tomlin is one of only two coaches in the Super Bowl era to have a winning record as an underdog, along with Matt LaFleur (18-13). The Steelers are 60-32-3 against the spread as underdogs in the Tomlin era.
Pittsburgh was one of the most popular underdogs with the public on Sunday, garnering 64% of bets on the spread and 80.4% of bets on the money line (+140) at ESPN BET. The Steelers’ ninth win of the season also clinched the over on their preseason win total of 8.5.
Odds & Ends
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After rushing for 107 yards and a touchdown in the Eagles’ 24-19 victory over the Ravens, Saquon Barkley‘s odds to win MVP shortened to +225 at ESPN BET, trailing only Bills QB Josh Allen (+150).
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The Tennessee Titans failed to cover +6 in a blowout loss to the Washington Commanders, dropping them to 2-10 ATS on the season, tied for the worst such start in the Super Bowl era and the first since the 2013 New England Patriots.
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A bettor this week in Nevada placed a $200 bet on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl with Caesars Sportsbook at 5,000-1 odds for a chance at a $1 million payout. The Patriots lost to the Colts 25-24 Sunday and fell to 3-10.
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Six teams won but did not cover the spread in Week 13, the most in any week this season.
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Pittsburgh and Cincinnati combined for 48 points in the first half of their contest, cashing the over (46.5) before halftime. Overs in Bengals games are now 7-0 when they face a team with a winning record.
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The Cleveland Browns would clinch the under on their preseason win total (8.5) with a loss against the Denver Broncos on Monday night.
Michigan’s upset of Ohio State by the numbers
David Purdum and Doug Greenberg: Ohio State entered Saturday as one of the largest favorites in the history of its rivalry with Michigan, but it was the Wolverines who emerged from The Horseshoe with an enormous upset victory. Here’s a look at Michigan’s win through a betting lens: 20.5 — Michigan closed as a 20.5-point underdog at ESPN BET, making it the largest upset, point spread-wise, in the rivalry’s history since at least the 1978 FBS-FCS split, according to ESPN Research. 1 — Where Ohio State ranked out of all college football teams in terms of bets placed and money wagered on the money line at DraftKings. 41.5 — The over/under for the rivalry game closed at 41.5. With just 23 points, this was the first Michigan-Ohio State game to go under the total since 2013. ESPN BET reported that The Game represented its most-bet over by tickets for the college football weekend. 83% — Ohio State accounted for 83% of the money bet on the game’s money line at BetMGM sportsbooks. 3 — The Wolverines are the third defending national champion to be 20-point underdogs at any point the following season since 1978, joining 2011 Auburn and 2020 LSU. 5 — Ohio State becomes the fifth team ranked in the top five in the College Football Playoff rankings to lose as a 20-plus-point favorite. It was also the fifth-largest straight-up upset according to the spread this season. $28,000 — A bettor in Indiana with Caesars Sportsbook placed a $28,000 money-line bet on Ohio State to win the game straight up at -1400 odds. The bet would’ve won a net $2,000. +450 — Ohio State’s updated odds to win the national championship at ESPN BET. The Buckeyes were the favorites at +250 before Saturday’s loss. Oregon is now the favorite at +350, followed by Georgia and Texas at +450 along with Ohio State.
