Our complete Week 13 game guide: Keys to every matchup, score picks for all 12 games
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NFL Nation, ESPN
The Week 13 NFL schedule for the 2023 season is stacked with great matchups, and we have you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game and a bold prediction for each matchup.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Analytics writer Seth Walder picks out each matchup’s biggest X factor, and fantasy analyst Eric Moody hands out helpful fantasy football intel. Finally, Walder and Moody give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full Week 13 slate, including a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship Game between the 49ers and Eagles and a showdown of two surprise playoff contenders in the Broncos and Texans. It all culminates with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Bengals and the Jaguars on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
Jump to a matchup:
DEN-HOU | IND-TEN | LAC-NE
DET-NO | ATL-NYJ | ARI-PIT
MIA-WSH | CAR-TB | CLE-LAR
SF-PHI | KC-GB | CIN-JAX
Thursday: DAL 41, SEA 35
Bye: BUF, CHI, LV, MIN, NYG, BAL
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: HOU -3.5 (47.5)
Storyline to watch: From Week 9-12, the Broncos have held opposing quarterbacks to a QBR of 31.9 (fourth lowest) and are keeping opposing offenses to 18.0 points per game (13th lowest). But Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has a QBR of 68.3 (fifth best) during that same span. This matchup will be the collision of one strength vs. another. — DJ Bien-Aime
Bold prediction: The Broncos will do what only three other teams have done this season — force Stroud into multiple turnovers. Stroud has only three games — wins over Arizona and Cincinnati to go with a loss to Indianapolis in his second career start — when he has turned the ball over more than once. The Broncos have 16 takeaways during their current five-game winning streak, with 15 of those occurring in the past four games (their most in a four-game span since 1989). Their 22 takeaways on the season lead the league. — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: Broncos QB Russell Wilson has five straight starts with a passing touchdown and no interceptions, the longest active streak in the NFL and third-longest streak of his career behind a six-game streak in 2020 and a seven-game run in 2019. Wilson has an NFL-best 20-4 touchdown-interception ratio this season.
1:01
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Pat McAfee breaks down everything he’s liked from the Broncos during their winning streak.
Matchup X factor: Texans left guard Juice Scruggs. When Tytus Howard suffered a knee injury last week Scruggs replaced him, and that looks like a long-term move now that Howard is out for the season. The second-round rookie put up a strong 96% pass block win rate in that game but is obviously unproven. Protecting Stroud will be critical, both on Sunday and going forward. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: It would be wise for fantasy managers to temper their expectations for Texans receivers Tank Dell and Nico Collins against the Broncos. Despite a rough start, Denver’s defense has been playing well lately. Throughout the Broncos’ recent four-game stretch, opposing quarterbacks, including the likes of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, have managed to average only 12.0 fantasy points. That will affect Houston’s receivers. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Texans are 0-7 against the spread (ATS) in their past seven games as favorites, including 0-4 ATS this season. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Texans 31, Broncos 28
Walder’s pick: Texans 23, Broncos 16
FPI prediction: HOU, 54.4% (by an average of 1.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: How Wilson helped spark Broncos’ five-game win streak … Texans believe Stroud gives them chance to win in every game … Howard to miss remainder of season with knee injury
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: IND -1 (42.5)
Storyline to watch: The Titans will look to minimize the Colts’ rushing attack after allowing 193 yards on the ground the last time they met. Tennessee will have defensive tackle Teair Tart this time around, which will boost the run defense. The Colts will be without Jonathan Taylor (thumb), but Zack Moss‘ 672 rushing yards place him 10th in the NFL. The Titans pride themselves on stopping the run and will have their hands full against the Colts’ offense that is 11th in the league with 1,335 yards on the ground. — Turron Davenport
Bold prediction: Look for the Colts to give up more than 150 rushing yards given their recent struggles defending the run. Indianapolis has struggled since the loss of nose tackle Grover Stewart to a PEDs suspension. Since Stewart was sidelined in Week 7, the Colts have allowed 4.9 yards per attempt, up from 3.7 in Weeks 1-6. Titans running back Derrick Henry was limited to 43 yards and 3.3 yards per carry in the teams’ first meeting with Stewart on the field. — Stephen Holder
Stat to know: Henry has 1,330 rushing yards in 15 career games against Indianapolis, the third most all time vs. the Colts, trailing Curtis Martin (1,645 in 15 games) and Maurice Jones-Drew (1,451 in 15 games).
1:27
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Matchup X factor: Moss. Even after taking a backseat role to Taylor, Moss ranks second among all players in rush yards over expectation (per NFL Next Gen Stats) this season with plus-168. The only player he’s behind is another running back who has had limited playing time, the Dolphins’ De’Von Achane. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: Gardner Minshew and the Colts wide receivers have an excellent matchup. Wide receivers score the eighth-most fantasy points against the Titans. With Taylor out with a thumb injury, the Colts could rely more on the passing game against a normally stout Tennessee run defense. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Titans are 4-1 outright and ATS at home. And the Colts are 4-1 outright and ATS on the road. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Colts 21, Titans 17
Walder’s pick: Titans 20, Colts 17
FPI prediction: IND, 57.4% (by an average of 2.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Taylor to undergo thumb surgery … How Titans have managed to remain unbeaten in Nashville … Colts’ Shane Steichen’s aggressive nature helping Indy
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: LAC -5.5 (40.5)
Storyline to watch: Backup quarterback Bailey Zappe is expected to make his first start of the season for the Patriots, replacing Mac Jones, who has been pulled from four games. Zappe said he hopes to follow a similar formula to last season when he started two games that the team won, and he was able to “limit turnovers.” The Chargers have a plus-three turnover differential on the season (15 takeaways, 12 giveaways). — Mike Reiss
Bold prediction: The Chargers’ defense will force a season-high four turnovers. One of the few things this struggling Chargers defense has done well is beating up on inexperienced quarterbacks. Khalil Mack sacked Raiders rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell six times in Week 4. They forced five turnovers combined in wins over the Zach Wilson-led Jets and Tyson Bagent-led Bears. With Zappe taking first-team reps at practice this week for the Patriots, the Chargers’ defense could be in for another big performance. — Kris Rhim
Stat to know: Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert is 0-2 in his career against the Patriots with two touchdown passes, four interceptions and a 13 Total QBR, his lowest QBR vs. a single opponent.
Matchup X factor: Chargers run defense. It’s hard to imagine the Patriots passing a ton, and no team has allowed more EPA per designed carry over the past four weeks than the Chargers. Los Angeles should roll to an easy win … unless the defense really lets the team down. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: Ezekiel Elliott has had 10 or more touches in consecutive games while Rhamondre Stevenson had 20 or more touches in consecutive games. As a result of the Patriots’ quarterback woes, New England will likely turn to its running backs behind an offensive line that ranks seventh in run block win rate. The Chargers’ defense allows the ninth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Patriots are 2-9 ATS, the worst record in the league. They are 1-7 ATS in their past eight games and 0-4 ATS in their past four games. One more ATS loss will match the Patriots’ most ATS losses in a season in the Bill Belichick era (6-10 ATS in 2010). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Chargers 27, Patriots 20
Walder’s pick: Chargers 27, Patriots 13
FPI prediction: LAC, 67.5% (by an average of 6.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Brandon Staley: Johnston held out due to rib injury, not play … Zappe takes reps as Belichick mum on Patriots’ QB situation
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: DET -4.5 (46.5)
Storyline to watch: The Saints could be down their top three receivers with Michael Thomas on injured reserve (knee), Rashid Shaheed nursing a thigh injury and Chris Olave in concussion protocol. That’s bad news for an offense that failed to score a touchdown against the Falcons last week. The Saints’ have struggled in the red zone, which will make it difficult to go score-for-score against a Lions offense that ranks second in yards per game. — Katherine Terrell
Bold prediction: Lions QB Jared Goff won’t turn the ball over this week and will throw for more than 300 yards. It’s no secret that the veteran has struggled recently, with six turnovers over the past two games, but the Lions have placed a heavy emphasis on ball security during this week’s practice as they will be looking to bounce back after a tough Thanksgiving loss at home to the Packers. Goff will get the offense back on track. — Eric Woodyard
Stat to know: The Saints’ Alvin Kamara leads all running backs with 54 receptions. With 355 receiving yards, he is seeking his seventh season with at least 400 receiving yards (would be tied for the fifth-most seasons by a running back in NFL history).
Matchup X factor: Lions wide receiver Kalif Raymond. He’s coming off a 90-receiving yard game and is ranked in the top 10 in open score. Is it possible Raymond is having a late-season breakout into another target for Goff? — Walder
What to know for fantasy: The Saints’ red zone touchdown percentage this season is 42.5%. At home, it drops to 37.5%, the fourth-lowest in the NFL. If you are considering starting a Saints player, you should keep in mind New Orleans’ red zone woes. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Saints are 0-4 ATS at home. The Lions are 4-1 ATS on the road (3-0 ATS as road favorites). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Lions 28, Saints 23
Walder’s pick: Lions 27, Saints 20
FPI prediction: DET, 56.1% (by an average of 2.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Thanksgiving loss won’t put Lions in ‘panic mode’ … Carr hasn’t thrown a TD since when? Saints QB closing in on a month without a score … Saints’ Olave (concussion), Shaheed (quad) injured in loss
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: ATL -2 (33.5)
Storyline to watch: Desmond Ridder vs. Tim Boyle isn’t exactly a marquee quarterback matchup. Ridder has 18 turnovers in nine starts (5-4), while Boyle, who began the season as the third stringer, threw two interceptions in his first start. The Jets are seeking to avoid their eighth straight game with fewer than two touchdowns, which would be the longest streak by any team since the 2011 Rams. — Rich Cimini
Bold prediction: The Falcons have three rushers — Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson — who will rush for more than 50 yards, and Robinson will have more than 100 yards from scrimmage for the third straight game. As good as New York is against the pass, it is ranked No. 31 entering the week in rushing yards allowed (1,543). With the Falcons having a top-five rushing offense, all three of their main backs will thrive. — Michael Rothstein
Stat to know: Ridder has had five red zone turnovers this season (two more than any other player); a sixth would break the tie for the most by a Falcons player over the past 40 seasons.
Matchup X factor: Boyle. There’s no reason to believe he’s up for this job based on his track record in college, in the pros and last week — when he recorded a QBR of 4.6. He has the chance to prove folks wrong, I suppose. The Jets need him to. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: The Falcons would be wise to rely heavily on running the football considering the strength of New York’s secondary. Atlanta ranks third in rushing attempts per game. Over the past three games, the Jets have given up the ninth-most rushing yards per game to opponents. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Falcons are 0-6 ATS in their past six games as favorites (1-6 ATS this season). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Falcons 25, Jets 19
Walder’s pick: Falcons 19, Jets 9
FPI prediction: ATL, 56.8% (by an average of 2.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Four changes the Falcons made coming out of their bye week … Rodgers is practicing — now what? Why he might not be back for Jets in 2023 … Amid Jets’ slump, Huff enjoying breakout season
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: PIT -5.5 (41.5)
Storyline to watch: After firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada, the Steelers gained more than 400 yards in a game for the first time in 58 regular-season games. But the yards didn’t translate into an explosion of points. That could change this week. The Cardinals’ defense is second-to-last in the NFL in points allowed, giving up an average of 26.8 points per game. Arizona’s rushing defense is also one of the worst in the league, giving up an average of 174 yards on the ground in its past three games. — Brooke Pryor
Bold prediction: Cardinals running back James Conner will run for 125 yards. This will be a knock-down, drag-out fight between Arizona’s rushing offense — which is ranked 10th in the league in yards per game and third in yards per carry — and the Steelers’ rushing defense, which hasn’t allowed more than 116 yards in its past five games, including back-to-back games of keeping its opponents under 100 yards. Conner will be ready to break out in his return to Pittsburgh, where he played his college ball and the first four years of his NFL career. — Josh Weinfuss
Stat to know: Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt has four consecutive games with one full sack, tied for the second longest streak of his career behind a six-game streak in 2019 and the second-longest active streak in the NFL behind Miami’s Jaelan Phillips (five games).
Matchup X factor: Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray‘s accuracy. His off-target rate (19%) is at a career-high since his return this season. Part of that is driven by him throwing the ball farther downfield on average than ever, but even accounting for that his accuracy numbers are down. His adjusted completion percentage and completion percentage over expectation (per NFL Next Gen Stats) are also at career-lows. — Walder
Injuries: Cardinals | Steelers
What to know for fantasy: Murray has scored 17 or more fantasy points and scored a rushing touchdown in three consecutive games after missing the first nine games with a knee injury. The Steelers defense has given up the ninth-most passing yards per game. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Steelers are 5-0 ATS against teams currently with losing records this season. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Steelers 23, Cardinals 14
Walder’s pick: Cardinals 23, Steelers 19
FPI prediction: PIT, 71.7% (by an average of 7.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Mental recovery from ACL injury a milestone for Cardinals’ Murray … Freiermuth highlights promising direction for Steelers offense … Murray not discouraged by growing pains in new Cardinals offense … Johnson apologizes for lack of effort vs. Bengals
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: MIA -9.5 (49.5)
Storyline to watch: Washington coach Ron Rivera will take over as the defensive playcaller for the fired Jack Del Rio; it’ll be Rivera’s first time calling defensive signals since 2018, when he was Carolina’s head coach. It won’t be easy Sunday. Miami leads the NFL with 42 offensive touchdowns while Washington has allowed the second-most with 35. Also, Miami is second with 57 plays of 20 yards or more, and Washington has allowed the most with 59. — John Keim
Bold prediction: In their first game since LB Jaelan Phillips suffered a season-ending Achilles injury, the Dolphins will record at least six sacks against a Commanders’ offensive line that has allowed the second-most sacks in the NFL (55). Bradley Chubb will step up and secure three himself, as the league’s third-ranked pass rush continues its hot streak. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Stat to know: The Dolphins are seeking their seventh 30-point game this season (would be their most since eight in 1985). They have scored 44 total touchdowns this season (four more than any other team), after scoring 46 all of last season (ninth in the NFL).
1:27
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Stephen A. Smith gives his thoughts on Tyreek Hill saying the 2023 Dolphins are better than the 2019 Chiefs.
Matchup X factor: Dolphins defensive back Jalen Ramsey. With him on the field this season, the Dolphins have allowed minus-0.16 EPA per dropback (equivalent to second-best in the NFL) compared to minus-0.02 without him (still good, but not elite). They haven’t faced a killer row of offenses since his return, but the team’s improved defensive performance has coincided with him being on the field. — Walder
Injuries: Dolphins | Commanders
What to know for fantasy: In his first 13 career games, the Commanders’ Sam Howell became only the sixth quarterback in league history to surpass 3,500 passing yards. A winnable matchup against Dolphins slot cornerback Kader Kohou should lead to a lot of targets for Washington receiver Curtis Samuel. This season, Samuel has had four games with seven or more targets and scored 18 or more fantasy points in three of them. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Commanders are 3-0-1 ATS and 2-2 outright as home underdogs of at least 7.5 points under Rivera. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Dolphins 30, Commanders 17
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 24, Commanders 21
FPI prediction: MIA, 80.4% (by an average of 11.4 points)
Matchup must-reads: Dolphins to sign veteran DE Pierre-Paul … Commanders fire DC Del Rio after rout vs. Cowboys … Ron Rivera not worried about job status
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: TB -5 (36.5)
Storyline to watch: At 4-7 and having dropped six of the past seven games, the Bucs are miraculously just one game out of first place in the NFC South while the 1-10 Panthers are hoping a coaching change can galvanize the team. Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield, who spent seven games with the Panthers last season, certainly expects it. “Having been in that spot before, everybody rallies around it, honestly. It’s one of those things that brings people together,” said Mayfield, who is expected to play despite leaving last week’s game briefly with an ankle injury. — Jenna Laine
Bold prediction: Rookie quarterback Bryce Young will pass for a career-high 300 yards and three touchdowns against the NFL’s 31st-ranked pass defense (268.7 yards allowed per game) to give Chris Tabor a win in his debut as Carolina’s interim coach. It’s bold because Young hasn’t topped 200 yards passing in the past four games, and his career high is 247 against Detroit, but Tabor is going to turn him loose. — David Newton
Stat to know: Young has been sacked at least four times in seven of his 11 games (most by a rookie since Blake Bortles had nine in 2014). The Panthers have allowed 43 sacks and are on pace for 66, which would be the second-most in franchise history (69 in 2000).
Matchup X factor: Panthers edge rusher Brian Burns. It hasn’t translated to a huge sack total (6.0), but Burns has been disruptive, with a 27% pass rush win rate at edge — which trails only Micah Parsons and Myles Garrett. A big defensive game from Burns could go a long way. — Walder
Injuries: Panthers | Buccaneers
What to know for fantasy: This season, the Buccaneers have leveraged the running ability and receiving ability of Rachaad White. He’s averaged 18.1 touches and 15.0 fantasy points per game. White will face a Panthers defense that allows the third-most fantasy points per game to running backs. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: In the past 15 seasons, teams are 19-12 ATS in their first games under new head coaches after midseason coaching changes, including 7-2 ATS since 2020. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 24, Panthers 20
Walder’s pick: Buccaneers 19, Panthers 16
FPI prediction: TB, 71.3% (by an average of 7.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Next steps for Panthers, Young with Reich firing … Buccaneers QB Mayfield expected to play despite ankle … Young not blaming Reich for struggles … Bucs’ Barrett to honor late daughter with ‘My Cleats’ initiative
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: LAR -3.5 (40.5)
Storyline to watch: Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is coming off a game in which he threw a season-high four passing touchdowns, which was as many as he had in his previous four games combined. The Browns have allowed just 10 passing touchdowns this season, which is tied with the Ravens for the fewest in the NFL, so Stafford and the Rams face a significant challenge. — Sarah Barshop
Bold prediction: Former Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco has not thrown a TD pass since facing the Browns in Week 2 last season while with the Jets. But the 38-year-old, who signed with the Browns on Nov. 19, will toss a pair of TDs at SoFi Stadium in his first start with the Browns. — Jake Trotter
Stat to know: Puka Nacua could become the sixth player since the 1970 merger to reach 1,000 receiving yards in his first 12 games (the last one to do it was Justin Jefferson in 2020). The receiver already holds Rams rookie records for receptions (passed 2017 Cooper Kupp) and receiving yards (924, tied with 1996 Eddie Kennison).
Matchup X factor: Rams left tackle Alaric Jackson. The Broncos slowed (an injured) Myles Garrett in Week 12 and won. Can Jackson do the same? It’s a tall task for the Rams tackle, who ranks 62nd out of 70 tackles in pass block win rate. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: Against the Cardinals last week, running back Kyren Williams became the first Rams player since Todd Gurley in 2018 to accumulate 200 total yards and score two touchdowns in a game. Williams can be relied on in fantasy lineups even against a Browns’ defensive front that ranks first in run stop win rate. He has averaged 19.0 touches per game. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Browns have covered six straight games after a loss and are 8-0-1 ATS in their past nine games after a loss (3-0 ATS this season). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Rams 27, Browns 16
Walder’s pick: Rams 23, Browns 21
FPI prediction: LAR, 63.9% (by an average of 4.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Garrett avoided serious shoulder injury … Sorting through the Rams’ chances in the NFC wild card picture … Flacco now Browns’ QB2, could start vs. Rams
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: SF -3 (47.5)
Storyline to watch: Following their 31-7 NFC Championship Game loss to the Eagles last January, a sentiment out of the 49ers locker room was that the outcome would have been much different if quarterback Brock Purdy didn’t exit with an injury midway through the first quarter. They’ll have a chance to back that up Sunday. Purdy has completed over 70% of his passes this season and has a league-leading QBR of 75.6. The Eagles are 29th versus the pass (255.7 YPG) and have yielded the second-most passing touchdowns in the NFL (23). — Tim McManus
Bold prediction: Running back Christian McCaffrey and the Niners will rush for 150-plus yards. The Eagles are allowing just 85.3 yards per game on the ground, which is third-best in the league. But they have struggled of late, yielding a combined 346 yards on the ground in the past two weeks. What’s more, Philadelphia is coming off a game in which it played 92 defensive snaps and is giving up 6 yards per carry on run plays outside the tackles. The 49ers are coming in with a few extra days of rest after playing on Thanksgiving and an offense that’s as healthy as it has been since early in the season. — Nick Wagoner
Stat to know: The 49ers average 15.7 points in the first half, the fourth-highest mark in the NFL. The Eagles average 14.8 points in the second half, highest in the NFL. (The 49ers allow 6.6 PPG in the second half, fewest in the NFL).
Matchup X factor: 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk. It’s flying a little under the radar because of Tyreek Hill‘s season, but Aiyuk’s 3.44 yards per route run in 2023 would rank third by any player in a season since 2007, behind only Hill this season and Steve Smith in 2008. That’s how good he’s been, and he’s one of many playmakers who could lift the 49ers over the Eagles. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: Purdy has scored 18 or more fantasy points in three of his past five games and has completed at least 70% of his passes in five straight. Now he faces an Eagles defense that gives up the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Eagles have covered three straight games and four of their past five games. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Eagles 31, 49ers 24
Walder’s pick: 49ers 34, Eagles 27
FPI prediction: SF, 55.6% (by an average of 1.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: The 49ers’ pass rush is getting revved up at the right time … Eagles’ offense still drawing criticism at 10-1 … Purdy/Aiyuk combo has 49ers’ offense rolling
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: KC -6 (42.5)
Storyline to watch: The Packers are undefeated (15-0) in December since Matt LaFleur took over as coach in 2019, but they haven’t played the Chiefs in the final month of the calendar year during that stretch. Jordan Love‘s first NFL start came at Kansas City in a 13-7 loss in November 2021. Meanwhile, this will be Patrick Mahomes’ first appearance at Lambeau Field. — Rob Demovsky
Bold prediction: The Chiefs will sack Love four times. When defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo wants to bring pressure, the Chiefs have usually been successful this season, and they bring it from many different places. They have 14 players with at least a half sack. Love has been sacked only 22 times but hasn’t faced a pass rush like this one. — Adam Teicher
Stat to know: The Chiefs’ defense uses DB blitzes on 20% of opponents dropbacks, the third-highest rate in the league. That might not be the best idea against Love on Sunday, as the Packers QB has played well against DB blitzes, ranking top-five in QBR, first down rate and sack percentage.
Matchup X factor: The Packers’ running game. The Chiefs’ defense is vulnerable against the run. Green Bay hasn’t really been able to get its running game going this year — it ranks 23rd in EPA per designed carry — but needs its backs to step up in a big way Sunday. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: Last week against the Raiders, Chiefs receiver Rashee Rice set season highs in targets (10), receptions (8), receiving yards (107) and fantasy points (24.7). He had the most receiving yards by a Chiefs rookie since Dwayne Bowe, who had 164 receiving yards in 2007. Over the past two weeks, the Packers’ defense gave up big games to Amon-Ra St. Brown (18.5) and Keenan Allen (27.6). See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Andy Reid is 0-6 ATS in his past six games against the Packers (including playoffs), and he is 0-3 ATS against them as the Chiefs coach. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Chiefs 27, Packers 24
Walder’s pick: Chiefs 27, Packers 20
FPI prediction: KC, 71.6% (by an average of 7.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: The race for the AFC playoff picture: The Chiefs’ path back to the No. 1 seed … Why Love’s production has taken flight for Packers
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | Spread: JAX -8.5 (38.5)
Storyline to watch: What should have been a marquee QB matchup between Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence is now Lawrence vs. Jake Browning. The Jaguars’ pass rush is coming off one of its best games of the season (21 pressures, four sacks), and Browning has been sacked seven times in the last two games. Expect the Jaguars to bring extra rushers to try and rattle a QB making just his second career start. — Mike DiRocco
Bold prediction: Jaguars receiver Christian Kirk and running back Travis Etienne Jr. will each cross the 100-yard mark. The Bengals are worst in the NFL in yards allowed per play (6.2) and have a young secondary still looking to learn the ropes. Kirk is 18th in the NFL in receiving yards, and Etienne is third in the league in scrimmage yards per game. — Ben Baby
Stat to know: Cincinnati receiver Ja’Marr Chase needs 86 receiving yards for 1,000 this season. He would be the eighth player in NFL history and second Bengals player (A.J. Green) with 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first three seasons.
Matchup X factor: Bengals edge rusher Trey Hendrickson. If the Bengals are going to win they’re going to need their defense to come up big. Hendrickson can do that against backup Jaguars tackle Walker Little. — Walder
What to know for fantasy: The return of Jaguars receiver Zay Jones has boosted Calvin Ridley‘s fantasy value since opposing defenses can no longer bracket him. Over the past two games, Ridley has been targeted 15 times and scored 22 or more fantasy points in each contest. See Week 13 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Jaguars have covered five straight conference games. The Bengals are 1-6 ATS this season in conference games. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Jaguars 29, Bengals 17
Walder’s pick: Jaguars 23, Bengals 16
FPI prediction: JAX, 66.8% (by an average of 5.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Bengals’ Taylor defends Mixon’s effort after Steelers loss … Can the Jaguars win the AFC’s No. 1 seed? … Burrow’s wrist surgery goes ‘as planned’ … Jaguars place starting LT Robinson (knee) on IR
