First look at the divisional round: Previewing Packers-49ers

Four wild-card games down, two to go. The rescheduled Steelers-Bills matchup means the AFC’s entire divisional round slate is still up in the air. On the NFC side, the Lions will play the winner of Monday’s Eagles-Buccaneers contest. But we do know one divisional round matchup: The Packers will play at the 49ers next weekend.

So let’s look ahead to the divisional round schedule, which will include the first postseason games of the campaign for the Niners and the Ravens, who each had a bye. To get you ready for next week’s slate, we are looking ahead as much as we can right now. Stephen Holder picked out the biggest thing to watch in our only firm matchup, and Seth Walder explored how each of those two teams can win to advance to the NFC Championship Game. Walder also took a quick look at what to expect going forward from the Ravens, Chiefs, Texans and Lions, who are all still waiting on matchup clarity. (We will update this file after each of the remaining wild-card games.)

Jump to set matchups:
GB-SF

Other teams:
BAL | DET | KC | HOU

NFC

When: Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Fox)

What to know: Packers quarterback Jordan Love showed stunning accuracy against the Cowboys’ edge rush and coverage in his playoff debut Sunday. But the challenge posed by the rested 49ers coming off a bye provides an even bigger test. San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy is no postseason rookie, and he has some unfinished business after his hot start in the 2022 playoffs was short-circuited by an elbow injury in the NFC Championship Game.

With Niners coach Kyle Shanahan aiming to improve his postseason record to 7-3 in seven seasons, look for San Francisco to rely heavily on Christian McCaffrey and the running game. That’s where this matchup could turn, allowing the 49ers to attack a Green Bay weakness. No NFL team had more runs plays of 10 or more yards than San Francisco’s 74 in the regular season. Meanwhile, the Packers rank in the bottom third in rushing yards against after first contact (29th with 906) and yards allowed per rush (23rd at 4.4). — Holder

Why the 49ers will win: Why won’t they win? I can ask that question from now until the Super Bowl, because after the Packers dismantled the Cowboys, that left San Francisco without a major threat remaining in the conference. The 49ers are the best team in football, and they’re the best team left in the NFC, by far.

San Francisco boasts the best trait a Super Bowl hopeful can have: the No. 1 offense (including the No. 1 passing offense). And it’s by a lot. The Niners’ 0.16 expected points added (EPA) per play was well ahead of the No. 2 team, the already-eliminated Dolphins at 0.12. Purdy is supported by an absurd set of playmakers in McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. Oh, and we’re two paragraphs in, and I haven’t mentioned the defense, with Nick Bosa, Javon Hargrave and Chase Young rushing the passer. The 49ers have so many strengths that they don’t even need them all to click to win. — Walder

Why the Packers will win: The flip side of all the compliments I bestowed on San Francisco is that they are all bad news for Green Bay. These two teams are not in the same league. But it’s football. Things happen. The Packers could win, and it starts with Love — not just because he’s the quarterback but because of the type of quarterback he has evolved into over the course of the campaign. From Week 10 until the end of the regular season, Love finished second in QBR. The only signal-caller ahead of him? Dak Prescott, whom Love just outdueled in the wild-card round.

Defensively, even though the Packers have been disappointing all season, this is still a talented group. Could the Packers put it all together in their biggest game of the season? It remains possible. Turnovers, lucky bounces and an A-game from their defense are probably all necessary for the Packers to pull off this upset. But it could happen. — Walder

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Possible divisional round matchups: The Lions will host the winner of Monday night’s Eagles-Buccaneers contest on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET (NBC).

Reason for divisional round optimism: First off, the way coordinator Ben Johnson has gotten the most out of this offense has stood out, and the beginning of the wild-card game against the Rams was yet another example. Second, edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson has made a late-season surge and will get after either Jalen Hurts or Baker Mayfield in the divisional round. Hutchinson is on a three-game multiple-sack streak. — Walder

AFC

Possible divisional round matchups: If the Steelers beat the Bills on Monday, Baltimore will host Pittsburgh on Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS). If the Bills top the Steelers, Baltimore will host Houston on Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC.

Reason for divisional round optimism: The 2023 Ravens’ defense finished sixth in EPA per play (minus-0.1) among all teams over the past 10 seasons. Sixth! No matter which team heads to Baltimore in the divisional round, it is going to have a hard time scoring. And as if that weren’t enough, the likely recipient of the MVP award — quarterback Lamar Jackson — is also on this team. That’s how good of a position this team is in. — Walder

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Possible divisional round matchups: If the Steelers beat the Bills on Monday, Kansas City will host Houston on Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC. If the Bills handle the Steelers, Kansas City will play at Buffalo on Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS).

Reason for divisional round optimism: With tight end Travis Kelce showing signs of decline, the Chiefs badly needed another target for quarterback Patrick Mahomes to step up. And wideout Rashee Rice produced 2.6 yards per route run in the regular season, with his role increasing as his rookie year went on. Then came Saturday, when Rice collected 130 yards on eight receptions against the Dolphins. Kansas City has found its second playmaker for Mahomes, perhaps just in time. — Walder

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Possible divisional round matchups: If the Steelers beat the Bills on Monday, Houston will play at Kansas City. If the Bills take care of the Steelers, Houston will play at Baltimore. Either game would be Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET on ESPN/ABC.

Reason for divisional round optimism: How could it be anything besides quarterback C.J. Stroud after what we witnessed Saturday? When the proverbial lights were brightest, he delivered in a huge way against the Browns. His 98.4 QBR in that matchup was the best in the postseason since Josh Allen‘s dismantling of the Patriots two years ago. With Stroud playing this well, Houston suddenly has a higher upside than we perhaps ever realized. — Walder