Facts vs. Feelings: How to deal with fantasy surprises, good and bad

Fantasy football is a passion for many. Sometimes that passion pushes fantasy managers to make emotional decisions, even when the data suggest otherwise. Each week during the 2024 NFL season, Liz Loza will attempt to strike a balance between what the data states and what the heart wants. This is called Facts vs. Feelings.

Surprises carry with them a connotation of amazement and awe. Randomly discovering a crumpled up $5 bill in the pocket of an old hoodie. Receiving a message from a long-distance friend, saying they’ll be in town next weekend. Showing up at a party planned for you but not at all by you. These are fantastic surprises. Everyone loves them! (Even those oh-so-demure-and-mindful folks who claim to just hate being the center of attention.)

There is a difference, however, between surprises and being surprised. Happening upon a glimmer is one thing. Catching your breath in astonishment can go either way. Who’s watching? What is it? Where are you? The answers to these queries set the stage for someone to either feel unexpectedly delighted or abruptly alarmed. It also gives an enormous amount of power to the person (or people) delivering the would-be whammy. After all, surprises usually occur when our defenses are down or our attention is focused elsewhere.

For instance, when we are enthusiastically pontificating about Mike Gesicki‘s streaming appeal on live television. OK, so maybe that’s not everyone. But I have to tell y’all a story because it’s been a minute since I got gotcha’d this good.

I’ve recorded “Loza’s Lowdown” for “SportsCenter” since joining ESPN back in 2022. Driving to the studio and working in person with the incredible Los Angeles-based crew is something I look forward to each and every week. Everyone (and I mean everyone) has been wonderfully welcoming and fantastically professional. But that doesn’t mean I don’t, sometimes, feel insecure, especially as a relative newcomer to the company. So, when Stephen Nelson joined the “SportsCenter” desk in the winter of last year, I was jazzed to make a new friend. The fact that he had family ties to Chicago only made me like (and trust) him more.

Stephen also happens to be a broadcaster for the Dodgers, which means our schedules don’t always align. It had been months since we had worked together. I was thrilled, then, when my pal sauntered into the makeup room (just moments after Noah Lyles entered the building … it was an A-plus day) and told me he’d be hosting my segment for the evening. We immediately started catching up, asking after each other’s families, wringing hands over the Bears, and shaking our heads at the state of the Rams’ receiving corps.

At some point, I shared that my son had crushed his first game of the fall ball Little League season, earning the game ball. I added that I was bummed to have missed the game because of work, but that I was ridiculously proud of him for (literally) stepping up to the plate with such gusto and confidence. Stephen appeared sincerely touched by this little snippet, acknowledging my pride as well as the struggle for balance that working parents regularly face. I figured the baseball guy would appreciate a baseball mom story. But I didn’t not anticipate what would happen shortly thereafter.

We walked to the set. Got mic’d up. Checked in with our producers. Recorded the segment. All good. But in the final seconds, Stephen went rogue. Going off script isn’t entirely rare, especially for someone so improvisationally skilled. But I was blown away. In the best possible way. Instead of sticking with the same outro, after plugging this very column, Stephen gave my son snaps by saying, “Paxton, shouts to you for getting the game ball on Sunday. Big time at the hot corner.”

That is how you surprise someone. Generously. Kindly. And most pleasantly.

Stephen’s ad-lib also allowed me to similarly (and sweetly) stupify my boy. I didn’t get to witness him snag a bullet line drive out the air with the bases loaded. But I did get to watch his eyes widen and his face flush with absolute (and unforeseen) bliss, as he took in a recorded episode of “SportsCenter” last Wednesday. I never saw any of those moments coming. And I’m really glad I didn’t.

Perhaps not on the same scale, but the same could be said of Jauan Jennings‘ three TDs or Chuba Hubbard‘s 28 fantasy points. None of us imagined the 49ers would be without Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel Sr. and George Kittle, all before October. Despite claims to the contrary, hardly anyone anticipated Bryce Young finding the bench three weeks into the Dave Canales residency. But there was sufficient evidence, proving Jennings’ capabilities. And Hubbard flashed in a sagging offense, supplanting Miles Sanders a year ago.

Possibility — particularly in fantasy football — is ever-present. We can’t, of course, let that fact overwhelm our feelings. Instead, we’re tasked with letting things play out in their own way. We can use data and tape and even intuition to guide our starting lineups and our deepest benches. That doesn’t mean, though, that there won’t be bombshells. In fact, we can be sure that revelations will occur every stinking week. Sometimes that’ll mean flexing a free agent all the way to 46 fantasy points. Other times, it’ll mean looking on as your first-round pick gets stuffed on fourth and short.

Life is full of surprises. How you handle them is up to you.

Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs: People often remember what they saw last. As it pertains to Mahomes, fans most recently witnessed the 29-year-old completing 34 of 46 passes for 333 yards and two TDs while scampering his way to an additional 66 rushing yards in a neutral-site game in Vegas. That helps to explain why “Showtime” was the second QB off the board in the third round of most fantasy drafts this August. Three weeks into the regular season, however, investors are shaking their heads. For good reason, too.

Mahomes has yet to finish a week as a top-10 fantasy QB this season. Here’s a kicker: the last time he posted top-10 numbers was in Week 12 of 2023. Even more stunning? His last top-five positional performance occurred in Week 7 of last season. To identify when he last led quarterbacks in scoring, managers would have to travel all the way back to Week 11 of 2022. Additionally staggering is the list of signal-callers who have landed a No. 1 week: Josh Allen (7), Lamar Jackson (3), Dak Prescott (3), Trevor Lawrence (2), Jalen Hurts, C.J. Stroud, Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert, Justin Fields, Derek Carr, Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, Geno Smith, Daniel Jones, Russell Wilson, Sam Howell … and Tom Brady.

So, yeah, these “mid” totals are nothing new. Nor is the cause of these depressed numbers. Mahomes doesn’t present much rushing upside, having recorded zero rushing TDs since the winter of 2022. He’s also not passing deep on a regular basis, falling outside of the top 12 fantasy QBs in air yards (243 per game) and ranking outside of the top 30 in deep-ball completion percentage (28%) in 2023. Instead, Kansas City has relied on a solid defense, limiting the need for shootouts (never trailing by more than 14 points) and all but erasing regular fantasy fireworks. It’s been death by a thousand paper cuts for teams playing against the Chiefs … and for managers investing in the three-time (real-life) Super Bowl MVP. His acute ability to execute off-platform throws that seemingly test the laws of physics, frustratingly, don’t show up in stat sheets. It’s, therefore, difficult for fantasy enthusiasts (who also happen to fancy themselves gridiron aficionados) to negotiate the space between arresting talent and underwhelming production. The virtual game, as the title implies, is touching grass-adjacent. As a result, Mahomes’ on-field heroics won’t always translate, making him a mid-to-low-end producer for fantasy purposes (and fantasy purposes, alone).

Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts: There was considerable excitement for Taylor heading into the fall, noting the potential running lanes that Anthony Richardson‘s mere presence could create. It has proven a sound theory, as Taylor has remained impressively efficient, averaging more than 5 yards per carry while ripping off four breakaway runs (RB1) thus far into 2024. The 25-year-old has gone over 100 rushing yards in back-to-back efforts. His most recent eruption — which netted managers more than 25 fantasy points — has investors feeling understandably confident. But the fact he faces the Steelers in Week 4 should quell any cockiness.

Pittsburgh has held all opposing rushers to the second-fewest yards per carry (3.5) in the NFL. Rival squads have taken note, reluctant to run on the current Curtain. In fact, the Steelers are averaging the third-fewest rush attempts faced (20.3). And when the defense is pushed upon, it answers with a 67% success rate against rushes. For additional context, Pittsburgh is the only team to not allow a rushing TD and one of just three squads to prevent a single 20-yard rush.

Taylor could attempt to overcome this (rather large) obstacle by producing via the air. However, his receiving numbers have been lacking. Taylor has converted just three (RB50) of six targets (RB36). That does bode well for a top-five showing in Week 4. Managers are advised to adjust expectations, flex upside, and brace for any sort of surprise.

Kyren Williams, RB, Los Angeles Rams: Like Baby Houseman’s father, when I’m wrong, I say I’m wrong, and whoa, was I wrong about Williams. He may not be the most potent rusher (3.5 yards per touch, RB48), but he is, unequivocally, the Rams’ lead back. With a snap share of nearly 88% (RB2) and a per-game touch total above 20, the 24-year-old’s role is equal parts enviable and undisputable. Injuries to the team’s top two receivers have undoubtedly affected his aforementioned stats, and Williams’ deployment might change as Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua return to health. Regardless, Sean McVay’s faith in Williams is palpable (my dude notched eight totes before Matthew Stafford attempted his second throw last weekend).

That’s a massive bummer for Blake Corum investors. The rookie has registered a meager eight snaps all season. Even more concerning is the fact that all eight of those opportunities occurred on the final drive of a 41-10 blowout with all the starters pulled at Arizona. Corum season may arrive, but managers need to live in the present, and the present belongs to Williams. With 12 red zone touches (RB2) on the season and facing a Bears defense that’s given up the fourth-most scores to opposing RBs, Williams’ nose for the end zone figures to be on display in Week 4. Consider him a top-eight positional fantasy play at Chicago.

George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers: The good news is that Pickens is, undoubtedly, the Steelers’ No. 1 WR. (He also hit the over on 49.5 receiving yards, which was a prop that popped last week.) The bad news is that Arthur Smith is, also undoubtedly, his team’s offensive coordinator. We all knew that heading into 2024, but the addition of Justin Fields under center appears to have increased the consternation over Smith’s conservative style.

Pickens’ 2.78 yards per route run (WR11) doesn’t mean much when he’s running barely 20 routes per game (WR71). In fact, the 25-year-old’s 67 recorded routes are tied for 63rd at the position along with Lil’Jordan Humphrey and DeMario Douglas (and behind DeAndre Carter). And while Pickens’ 25% target share is decent (WR15), his 18 total looks (WR31) sting. Even as Fields’ most-looked-to pass catcher, Pickens’ volume simply isn’t volume-ing for fantasy purposes.

The 3-0 Steelers are unlikely to tweak what has proven, thus far, to be a winning formula. And an uptick for Pickens appears improbable in a game with a projected point total under 40. The Colts have been generous to opposing wideouts, allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to the position. However, Indy has also given up the most rushing yards to opposing RBs. As such, Pickens is left to languish on the WR2/WR3 bubble for fantasy purposes.

Darnell Mooney, WR, Atlanta Falcons: Mooney is the first player to make a repeat appearance in this season’s edition of Facts vs. Feelings. I thought about highlighting someone new (like Rome Odunze … but figured y’all would ding me for talking up another Bear). Yet, Mooney’s production and involvement continues to ramp up with seemingly little chatter in fantasy circles (and, yeah, he happens to have also played in Chicago, I know).

Mooney’s stock should not be overshadowed by Drake London‘s offensive presence. The truth is, Mooney is shining as a complement to the 2022 first-round draft selection. His field-stretching ability is being unlocked by Kirk Cousins, as evidenced by an average depth of target over 15 yards (WR10) and four grabs over 20 yards (T-WR5). London, on the other hand, has registered just a single catch of more than 15 yards.

The former USC standout is, admittedly, the better red zone prospect, having recorded seven looks in the red area (and three in the end zone), as opposed to Mooney’s one such target (and zero end zone opportunities). Still, chasing touchdowns remains a volatile hobby. Relying on a player who delivers consistent chunk gains, though? That’s easy money. Mooney might not be an every-week start. Yet his floor (particularly in a condensed offense like the Falcons) should be appreciated (and rostered).

Mike Williams, WR, New York Jets: The easing-in of Big Mike is well underway. Williams’ is coming off his most productive effort of the season, converting 3 of 4 looks for 34 receiving yards. Those numbers are obviously not thrilling, but the 29-year-old’s increased involvement is a trend worth noting.

Williams’ snap share has climbed from 18% in Week 1 to 65% in Week 2 and 45% in Week 3. The dip in Week 3 was likely due to a combination of playing through a short week and New York’s 21-point lead over New England. The fact he ran the same number of routes in Weeks 2 and 3 (20) suggests he is inching toward a full-time role. His improved stat line additionally indicates a growing chemistry between the wideout and his quarterback. Gaining Aaron Rodgers‘ trust (especially as the 40-year-old vet also shakes off rust) figures to be key in Williams unlocking his points potential.

It’s coming. Along with bye weeks. He’s available in more than half of leagues. Plan accordingly.

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills: Oh-kay, Kincaid! One of this summer’s most-hyped players (yes, by me) found the end zone for the first time in his sophomore effort. Let’s celebrate, right? WRONG. I’m still worried. While the six is stupendous, Kincaid’s usage remains suss. On a night when Josh Allen threw for four touchdowns, Kincaid was tied for second in team targets (five) and posted a 3-41-1 stat line. That ceiling is giving Frank Lloyd Wright.

Kincaid currently ranks second on the team in target share (15.5%) and third in total routes run (51). While that’s not bad, it’s also not what drafters anticipated. The entirety of the positional landscape has been in tilt since kickoff, making Kincaid’s situation seem less dire. Still, the Utah product is shaping up to be more of a low-end TE1 than a top-five standout.

Thankfully, Kincaid draws a plus matchup at Baltimore in Week 4. The Ravens have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends (including a 6-95-0 stat line to Jake Ferguson, who was fresh off of a one-game absence last Sunday). Investors figure to find themselves smiling with surprise two weeks in a row.

Follow Liz on social @LizLoza_FF.