First bets: Early picks for Week 10
Week 10 of the NFL season features 14 games, starting with an AFC North matchup on Thursday night. Current MVP favorite Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens welcome Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals to M&T Bank Stadium for a primetime showdown.
The Sunday slate kicks off with a morning game from Germany as two struggling teams, the New York Giants and Carolina Panthers, face off from Allianz Arena in Munich. To finish off the day, Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions visit C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans on Sunday night. The Lions enter the Sunday prime-time game on a six-game winning streak and are 4-0 on the road this season. Week 10 concludes with two teams apparently heading in opposite directions. The Los Angeles Rams, winners of three straight games, face the Miami Dolphins, who are in the midst of a three-game skid.
Our team takes an early look at Week 10 odds to find value before lines move later in the week.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
Joe Fortenbaugh’s first bet: San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last week: Cleveland Browns–Los Angeles Chargers UNDER 40.5 points. Line closed at 41.5. Chargers won 27-10.
Let’s lock this in before it hits the key number of 7. San Francisco is coming off the bye week, while Tampa Bay will be turning around on six days’ rest after playing Monday night in Kansas City, so the spot screams “49ers.” In addition, the Niners are getting healthy and this game could feature the season debut of Christian McCaffrey. On top of that, Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles is 0-5 ATS in his career when facing an opponent coming off its bye week. There’s a good reason why this line already moved from -5.5 to -6.5 and it won’t be the least bit surprising to see it hit -7 before kickoff.
Ben Solak’s first bet: San Francisco 49ers-Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 47.5 (-115)
The 49ers are coming off of their bye and hoping to return McCaffrey to the fold — their offense desperately needs him, and the Buccaneers’ defense is the perfect soft-landing spot for his debut. Meanwhile, the Bucs are always good for some high pass rates and garbage time points, and the 49ers’ defense remains an overestimated unit in betting circles. If you can block up their pass rush — which the Bucs’ excellent tackle duo of Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke can — then you can move the ball on them, both on the ground and through the air. Expect points here.
Tyler Fulghum’s first bet: Washington Commanders–Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 44.5 (-110)
Last week: Rams to win the NFC West (+500). Rams currently (+375) to win NFC West.
We love betting on the Steelers under, especially on the road. This line is likely a bit inflated due to Jayden Daniels. The Rookie of the Year runaway favorite is definitely dynamic and capable of putting points on the board, but I don’t think he’s seen a defense anywhere near the caliber of this Pittsburgh unit just yet. On the other side, Russell Wilson has been a revelation at QB for Mike Tomlin’s offense, but I feel some regression is coming. Dan Quinn’s defense is playing lights out in recent weeks. I would play this under all the way down to 42.5.
Anita Marks’ first bet: Houston Texans (+4) vs. Detroit Lions
Last week: Patriots-Titans under 37.5 points. Line closed at 37.5. Titans won 20-17.
The Lions will have to hit the road for the second week in a row. They head to Houston to take on a Texans team that has a mini-bye, considering Houston played Thursday night. Extra time allows the Texans to get healthier. Will Anderson Jr. is dealing with an ankle sprain, and the team hopes to get Nico Collins back into the mix. C.J. Stroud plays better at home than on the road and won’t face as much pressure against the Lions pass rush without Aidan Hutchinson as he did against the Jets’ front seven.
Andre Snellings’ first bet: Denver Broncos (+9) over Kansas City Chiefs
Last week: Commanders -3 vs. Giants (-120). Line closed at Commanders -3.5. Commanders won 27-22.
I fully support the Chiefs being favored in this game, but I think this line is artificially juiced by the Chiefs being undefeated and the Broncos being blitzed by the Ravens by 31 points Sunday. Those two facts mask the fact that the Chiefs have rarely won in blowout fashion this season and the Broncos rarely get blown out. Of the Chiefs’ first seven wins, only two of them have been by more than seven points: a 13-point win over a New Orleans Saints team in the midst of a seven-game losing streak and a 10-point win over a San Francisco 49ers team that was beset by injury.
The Chiefs’ other five wins were by an average of 5.4 PPG. Similarly, outside of the Ravens loss, the Broncos have not lost any other game this season by more than seven points, and their average scoring margin pre-Ravens was +6.6 points. The Broncos are built around a strong defense that keeps them in games, and unlike the Ravens’ high-powered offense (first in NFL with 445.9 yards/game, second with 31.4 PPG) this year’s Chiefs play more ball control on offense (11th in NFL with 348.0 yards/game, 11th with 24.7 PPG). Sprinkle in the division rivalry that often makes games more competitive than expected, and 9 points is just too big a spread for my tastes. I’ll take the Broncos and the points.
Pamela Maldonado’s first bet: Indiana Hoosiers to win the Big Ten Championship (+1100)
Last week: Chicago Bears UNDER 8.5 wins. Bears lost to the Cardinals to fall to 4-4 on the season.
This is an enticing risk wager with potentially high rewards. The Hoosiers’ offense is explosive (No. 1 in points per play), while their defense has been stingy (10th in touchdowns allowed). With a crucial matchup against Ohio State still to come, a victory there would likely secure Indiana’s spot in the title game. If they can defeat the Buckeyes, your +1100 ticket would essentially become a coin flip against Oregon in the championship, offering tremendous value. Given Indiana’s balanced attack, strong defense and the fact that they’ve already outperformed expectations, they have a legitimate shot at pulling off the upset and winning the Big Ten title, making this a potentially lucrative wager for risk-tolerant bettors.
