First look at the AFC divisional round: Early previews for Ravens-Bills, Texans-Chiefs
Three wild-card games from the NFL playoffs are finished, and the division round matchups for the AFC teams are officially set. The Baltimore Ravens will travel to play the Buffalo Bills next weekend, while the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Houston Texans.
To look ahead at those divisional round matchups, we asked our NFL Nation reporters to pick out one thing we learned about the teams they cover during the wild-card round. (For the Chiefs, who didn’t play this week, we asked Adam Teicher to give an injury update.) Seth Walder also explored how each team can win to advance to the conference championships, and we provided opening lines from ESPN BET.
Let’s start with the No. 1-seeded Chiefs taking on the Texans. And check back as the NFC matchups become clear; we will also preview that conference’s two divisional matchups.
Jump to a matchup:
HOU-KC | BAL-BUF
AFC
Opening line: KC -8 (42.5)
Matchup background: The Chiefs and Texans faced off in Week 16, with Kansas City defeating Houston 27-19. The last playoff meeting between these two franchises was in the 2019 wild-card round, when the Chiefs erased a 24-0 second-quarter deficit to storm past Houston 51-31. Kansas City went on to win the Super Bowl that season. — ESPN
Chiefs injury update: The Chiefs should have all their starters and key role players on their active roster available for the divisional round. That includes defensive tackle Chris Jones, who hasn’t played since Week 15 because of a strained calf muscle. Running back Isiah Pacheco and offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor have also recently missed time because of injuries but should be ready to roll. Starting cornerback Jaylen Watson, who has been on injured reserve since breaking his ankle in Week 7 against the 49ers, has also been practicing and could be activated. — Adam Teicher
What we learned about the Texans in the wild-card round: After an up-and-down regular season, the Texans got stellar contributions from all three phases in the win over the Chargers. Quarterback C.J. Stroud threw for 282 passing yards, and running back Joe Mixon tallied 106 yards and a touchdown. The defense intercepted Justin Herbert four times, leading to the third-worst Total QBR of his career as a starter (13.0). Cornerback D’Angelo Ross also blocked a punt before returning a blocked extra point for a score. — DJ Bien-Aime
Why the Chiefs will win: Well, the biggest reason why the Chiefs will win is because they’re playing the Texans. Houston, despite advancing to the divisional round, has not been a consistently effective offensive team since losing Stefon Diggs (knee) in Week 8. From Week 9 on, the Texans rank 27th in EPA per play on offense — including negative EPA per play on both dropbacks and designed runs against the Chargers.
Of course, the Chiefs bring more than their fair share of strengths, too, starting with quarterback Patrick Mahomes but not ending with him. Earlier this season, one could look at the Chiefs and figure they were missing playmaking receivers. But today it’s a different story: Kansas City traded for DeAndre Hopkins, Marquise Brown returned from injury and Xavier Worthy has shown growth late in the season. Plus, it’s at least possible tight end Travis Kelce has simply been saving his strength for the postseason. Add that offense to a defense that still boasts some elite talents in Jones and Trent McDuffie, and Kansas City is a formidable opponent for any playoff team, let alone the Texans. — Walder
Why the Texans will win: Their pass rush. As ugly as the Texans’ offense was for most of the season — and frankly, it wasn’t great in their win over the Chargers — their pass rush always gives them a chance. Danielle Hunter led the NFL with a 26% pass rush win rate in the regular season, and he and Will Anderson Jr. were both over 25% in the category Saturday. (Denico Autry was at 21% and delivered a sack, too.) Those edge rushers against the Chiefs’ tackles represents one place where the Texans — who are deserved underdogs — will have a clear advantage over Kansas City.
The back-end of the defense matters, too. Cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. had a great regular season and snagged two picks against Los Angeles. But don’t sleep on CB Kamari Lassiter, who didn’t allow a single reception as the nearest defender, per NFL Next Gen Stats, and also had a pick. — Walder
Opening line: BUF -1 (51.5)
Matchup background: The Ravens and Bills faced off in Week 4, with Baltimore handing Buffalo a 35-10 loss — the third-worst point margin of quarterback Josh Allen‘s career. Lamar Jackson and Allen have only played each other once in the playoffs, and Allen holds the advantage. Buffalo beat Baltimore 17-3 in the 2020 divisional round. — ESPN
What we learned about the Bills in the wild-card round: This Bills team might have not peaked yet. Coming into the game against the Broncos, cornerback Rasul Douglas said the Bills still had not played their best, and the opening performance in the playoffs showed he may just be right. Allen led Buffalo to score 31 unanswered points, and the defense limited the Broncos to 2-of-9 on third down despite not forcing a takeaway, one of the unit’s strengths. — Alaina Getzenberg
What we learned about the Ravens in the wild-card round: Jackson has proven he can have early postseason success. In winning his past three playoff openers, he has recorded a Total QBR over 80, completed 70% of his pass attempts and thrown four touchdown passes to one interception. The challenge for Jackson has been the encore. In each of the past two playoffs, he has followed up a victory with a loss, producing a 44 QBR, 56% completion rate and one touchdown throw to two interceptions. — Jamison Hensley
Why the Bills will win: Josh Allen. Forgive the obviousness, but it’s just the reality. It’s fourth-and-short? Allen can deliver with his legs and barrel through a defense for a conversion. Third-and-long? He can unleash an absurd pass like his outrageous touchdown throw to Ty Johnson in the wild-card round (that actually came on fourth-and-1, but you get the picture). And he does all that while being the best in the NFL at limiting mistakes. He had the lowest sack rate (2.6%) and ranked second in turnover rate (1.2%) through the regular season.
And the fact that he plays behind an offensive line that ranked third in pass block win rate in the regular season — and allowed only two sacks against a great Denver defense — certainly helps. As does the support Allen receives from his running backs. No team generated more EPA on running back targets than Buffalo.
The Ravens could be without top wide receiver Zay Flowers (knee) again, and that’s certainly a point in Buffalo’s favor if so. Though Baltimore has shown it is capable of winning on the ground, the Bills’ defense was better against the run in the regular season (eighth in EPA per play against designed runs) than the pass (20th against dropbacks). They did struggle against scrambles, which will be an issue facing Jackson. So the Bills are likely going to need plenty of points to beat Baltimore — with or without Flowers. — Walder
Why the Ravens will win: Their running attack borders on unstoppable. Baltimore showed it won’t hold back from using Jackson’s legs in the postseason — he ran 14 times in the Ravens’ win over the Steelers (kneels excluded) — and the combination of him and running back Derrick Henry makes life brutal for defenses. Read plays in the wild-card round were incredibly effective, as Steelers defenders were forced to account for both Jackson and Henry, resulting in fewer players in the path of the actual ball carrier.
To beat the Bills, however, it will require a solid effort on both sides of the ball. Fortunately, that’s no longer an issue for the Ravens. Since they moved Kyle Hamilton back to primarily deep safety in Week 11, Baltimore ranks first in EPA allowed per play on defense, postseason included. That’s better than the Broncos, whom the Bills just beat. — Walder
