Betting buzz: Underdogs all season, Commanders now playing for a Super Bowl berth
Everything that happens in sports has additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.
Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.
Key links: Sports betting home | NFL odds page | College football odds page | ESPN BET 
Jan. 19: Underdogs all season, Commanders continue playoff march
David Purdum: The Washington Commanders kicked off the season at 150-1 to win the Super Bowl. Practically no one wanted to bet them.
The Tennessee Titans, New York Giants and New England Patriots were among the 27 teams that had attracted more Super Bowl bets than the Commanders at BetMGM sportsbooks. There was approximately 10 times as much money wagered on the New York Jets than on Washington.
Four months later, the Commanders are in the NFC Championship Game and garnering much more support.
Washington opened as a 5.5-point road underdog against the Philadelphia Eagles. The point spread quickly moved toward the Commanders and was down to -4.5 at most sportsbooks Sunday night, a number in line with the NFC East rivals’ previous two meetings this season.
On Saturday, sportsbooks reported late sharp money on Washington ahead of Sunday’s game at Detroit, causing the line to dip slightly ahead of kickoff. The Commanders, who closed as 8-point underdogs, won outright 45-31, the largest playoff upset since the Titans (+10) beat the Baltimore Ravens in the 2019 divisional round.
On Sunday, fresh off their win over the Los Angeles Rams, the Eagles moved into the role of Super Bowl favorites, listed at +185 at ESPN BET. The Chiefs were +225, with the Commanders +650.
Jan 19: Ravens flip line against Bills, attract futures action
Doug Greenberg: Twelve years ago, the Baltimore Ravens won the Super Bowl with 28-year-old quarterback Joe Flacco. Twelve years prior to that, the Ravens won the Super Bowl with 28-year-old quarterback Trent Dilfer. Can Baltimore get it done in 2025 with 28-year-old Lamar Jackson under center?
The betting public sure seems to think so, especially following the Ravens’ 28-14 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the wild-card round. Between last Sunday and Saturday afternoon at ESPN BET, Baltimore took a leading 29% of bets to win the AFC, as well as the second-most handle to win the conference (21%) and the second-most handle to win the Super Bowl (18%), both of those behind the Kansas City Chiefs (47% and 21%, respectively).
“From a futures standpoint, the Ravens have been extremely popular, as they have been our most-bet team to win the AFC and Super Bowl this past week,” a FanDuel trader said via email before the weekend. “This coincides with our Super Bowl MVP market as well, as Lamar Jackson has been our most-bet player in this market.”
The excitement for Baltimore has not been limited to futures. Sportsbooks opened Sunday’s divisional round finale with the Buffalo Bills as consensus 1.5-point home favorites but, following a flurry of early action, the line flipped to the Ravens being road favorites, getting as high as -1.5. ESPN BET shows Baltimore as one-point favorites as of Sunday morning.
BetMGM, DraftKings and ESPN BET all show positive handle splits supporting the Ravens’ spread, with the latter two reporting less than 50% of bets and greater than 50% of money taking Baltimore to cover.
Regardless of the final line, Jackson is historically outstanding in this situation. He is 19-6-2 against the spread in his career when the spread is between +3 and -3, the best mark of any quarterback with at least 15 games in that situation in the Super Bowl era, according to ESPN Research.
All of this said, bettors should not immediately count out the Bills, especially with Josh Allen, who ran a tight campaign for NFL MVP against Jackson all regular season, under center.
Buffalo is a tough place to play and linemakers know it, as the Bills have been favored in 42 consecutive home games (including playoffs). It is the longest active streak in the NFL, although that theoretically would end on Sunday evening.
Another significant streak could also end. Since the Bills entered the NFL in 1970, they have never been a home underdog in a playoff game. It’s a string of 18 consecutive contests, in which they’ve gone 15-3 outright and 10-7-1 ATS. Buffalo is one of only four teams to have never been a home underdog in the playoffs, trailing only the New England Patriots (28) for the longest streak to begin a franchise. Playoff home underdogs are 36-21-1 ATS since the 1970 merger.
The Bills have also been a popular future play in their own right, attracting a leading 17% of bets to win the Super Bowl between last Sunday and Saturday afternoon, according to ESPN BET.
Bettors backing Barkley
In Sunday’s NFC showdown, the Los Angeles Rams head to Lincoln Financial Field for what is expected to be a very snowy contest against the Philadelphia Eagles. Regardless of the weather, Saquon Barkley has been a fixture of betting slips despite short odds and high totals for his player props.
At BetMGM, Barkley over 21.5 rushing attempts (-110), over 19.5 longest rush (-125) and over 113.5 rushing yards (-110) are the three most popular non-touchdown scorer props for the game by tickets. Of course, Barkley also leads betting action for the anytime touchdown scorer market at -185 and for first TD scorer at +425.
It may make sense given the opponent. Back in Week 12 against the Rams, the 27-year-old running back set the Eagles’ single-game records for rushing yards (255) and scrimmage yards (302). ESPN BET has his rushing + receiving yards prop set at 126.5.
Jan. 18: Chiefs‘ intentional safety helps late Texans bettors
David Purdum: The Kansas City Chiefs kicked off as 9.5-point favorites over the Houston Texans, a line that produced a back-and-forth, last-minute sweat for bettors, who waited to Sunday to place their wagers.
The Chiefs began the week as 8-point favorites at most sportsbooks, but the line grew and ticked up to -9.5 ahead of Saturday’s kickoff. That half point would come into play in the final seconds.
With the Chiefs leading 23-12, the Texans attempted a 35-yard field goal with 1:52 to play. Kansas City blocked the kick, seemingly securing an 11-point win. Seemingly.
On the Chiefs’ ensuing possession after the blocked kick, they ran three plays and lined up to punt, but elected to take an intentional safety instead, trimming the margin of victory to nine, 23-14.
Bettors who waited to take the underdog Texans +9.5 won, thanks to the safety. At ESPN BET, 72% of the money that was bet on the point spread when it reached 9.5 was on Houston.
The Chiefs improved to 8-0 outright in games they were favored by at least six points season. They are 0-8 against the spread in those games.
Jan. 18: Kansas City Chiefs‘ cover problem might not matter in playoffs
Doug Greenberg: For over half of the 2024 regular season, the Kansas City Chiefs did not look like the back-to-back Super Bowl champion juggernauts everyone expected them to be: The Chiefs were winning almost every game but weren’t doing so in convincing fashion.
From Weeks 1 through 14, Kansas City went 4-9 against the spread, which included an ATS losing streak of seven games from Weeks 8 through 14. The team’s eight outright victories without covering the spread tied for the most in the Super Bowl era, according to ESPN Research.
Patrick Mahomes is the only quarterback in the Super Bowl era with a straight-up winning record (35-24) in games where his team does not cover (minimum five games); just behind him is the great Roger Staubach (32-33).
The Chiefs are nine-point favorites against the visiting Houston Texans to kick off the NFL divisional round, a fascinating number given that KC has not covered a spread this large all season: The Chiefs are 7-0 SU but 0-7 ATS when laying at least six points this season, the longest such streak in the Super Bowl era.
And yet, despite all the ATS inadequacy from the regular season, Kansas City has been gaining steam in the betting markets, as the game opened at a consensus Chiefs -7.5, but by Saturday morning, all major sportsbooks had come up to at least -8.5, with ESPN BET getting up to -9.5.
The sportsbook reported 68.2% of money backing KC’s spread compared to 57.3% of the tickets, with other major books similarly reporting positive handle splits supporting the Chiefs. FanDuel’s trading team says that the early action had been “surprisingly” more split than expected, but the book will still “be cheering for the Texans.”
There’s some logic behind the money. Besides Kansas City (7-10), there was only one other playoff team that had a losing ATS record in the regular season — the Texans, who also went 7-10 against the number.
The Chiefs’ championship pedigree is also likely playing a role in attracting big money. Dating back to 2022, KC has covered the spread in six straight playoff games, tied for the fifth-longest such streak in the Super Bowl era. The 2022 team that won it all was similarly poor ATS in the regular season.
Mahomes always seems to step up his game in the postseason, as his 13-5 ATS record is the third-best among quarterbacks with at least 10 playoff starts since 1966; only Jim Plunkett (8-2) and Eli Manning (9-3) have been better.
Travis Kelce also elevates come January, posting higher receiving yards per game in the playoffs compared to the regular season every year since 2020. He has gone over his receiving yards prop in 13 straight playoff games, and his number for Saturday is set at 49.5 (juiced to -135) on ESPN BET, his lowest in any playoff game in that span.
Essentially, even though the Chiefs garnered an underperforming reputation throughout the regular season, the betting public is ready to back them in full force now that their playoff run has arrived.
“It’s the same old song and dance for the NFL,” BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini said via email. “The sportsbook needs the underdogs to cover and is hoping for one of the dogs to win outright to break up parlays.”
The other juggernaut
At ESPN BET, the Chiefs’ moneyline represents the second-most selected bet in parlays, behind the Detroit Lions‘ moneyline.
On Saturday night, Detroit begins its quest to bring home the franchise’s elusive first Super Bowl with a showdown against the red-hot Washington Commanders. As of Saturday morning, the Lions are 8.5-point favorites at ESPN BET and have been getting plenty of support from the betting public market-wide.
Between the explosive offenses and Detroit’s banged-up defense, sportsbooks and bettors alike are expecting fireworks, as the game’s 55.5-point over/under — up from 54.5 at open — is the highest total in any playoff game since Super Bowl LV (2020) between the Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
It’s nothing new for this iteration of the Lions, who have played in the five highest-total games in the NFL this season, including Saturday’s contest; the previous four games have seen an even split in overs vs. unders at 2-2.
Jan. 14: Bettors fade Ohio State as CFP title game spread moves toward Notre Dame
David Purdum: The line on the College Football Playoff National Championship game dropped early this week, with sportsbooks reporting sharp money on underdog Notre Dame.
On Jan. 10, Ohio State opened as a consensus 9.5-point favorite over the Fighting Irish in one of the largest spreads in a championship game during the BCS/CFP era. Some bettors thought the line was too big and came in early on Notre Dame, causing sportsbooks to drop the line to Ohio State -8.
“There wasn’t any news that drove this movement, but rather just sharp wagering that shot down this spread from 9.5 to 8.5,” Joey Feazel of Caesars Sportsbook told ESPN. “We have seen a steady stream of action on Notre Dame thus far, which was surprising given that we had seen an onslaught of Ohio State money both on games and futures since their win against Tennessee.”
John Murray, vice president of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, said his shop received a bet from a “very respected customer” on Notre Dame +9.5 (-105) on Sunday.
“The entire market moved down at the same time,” Murray said.
The line dropped to as low as Ohio State -7.5 on Monday, but has since settled back at a consensus -8. Feazel said sharp bettors also bet against the Buckeyes ahead of the semifinal matchup with Texas.
“The sharps believe Ohio State’s numbers are overinflated in the market,” Feazel said. “I expect to see this line possibly come down slightly closer to 7.”
