NFL Week 12: Vikings running hot heading into 'Monday Night Football'

November 26, 2023 ndowd

Nov 25, 2023, 10:00 AM ET

Week 12 is a full slate with 16 games spread out over four days. It all started Thursday with a Thanksgiving triple-header which saw the Green Bay Packers upset the Detroit Lions while the Dallas Cowboys covered the largest spread of the week... Friday, the Miami Dolphins visit the New York Jets, while Sunday’s slate will conclude with the Baltimore Ravens at the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday night. To cap off the week, the Chicago Bears will visit the Minnesota Vikings for Monday Night Football on ABC and ESPN. We’ve got lines for every matchups, updated throughout the week.

Football Power Index (FPI) by ESPN Sports Analytics Group. Odds by ESPN BET.

New Orleans Saints -2 @ Atlanta Falcons
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Sunday 1 p.m. ET

Money Line: New Orleans Saints (-125) ; Atlanta Falcons (+105)
Total: 41.5; Opened: 41.5
FPI favorite: Saints by 2.4 (57.2% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets

Dennis Allen has the worst cover percentage (.371) of any coach with at least 40 games in the Super Bowl era (23-39-1 ATS). The Saints are 2-7-1 ATS this season.
The Falcons are 2-8 ATS overall this season, tied with the Patriots for worst in the NFL (1-8 ATS in last nine games). They are 1-6 ATS as favorites this season. They are 1-4 ATS at home, going 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.
All six times the Saints have faced a team that currently have a losing record, the game went under the total.
The Saints have covered four straight games as an underdog. This is the second time the Saints have been underdogs this season.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 @ Cincinnati Bengals
Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati
Sunday 1 p.m. ET

Money Line: Pittsburgh Steelers (-130) ; Cincinnati Bengals (+110)
Total: 35.5; Opened: 35.5
FPI favorite: Steelers by 0.5 (51.6% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets

The Steelers are 3-0 outright and ATS after a loss this season. They have covered six straight games following a loss. Mike Tomlin is 53-39-1 ATS after a loss.
Five straight Steelers road games have gone under the total including all four this season. Unders are 77-53-3 in Steelers road games under Mike Tomlin. Overall, unders are 8-2 in all Steelers games this season.
The Bengals have covered four of the last five meetings.
The Bengals are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog.
The Bengals are 0-3 outright and ATS in division games. They are 1-5 outright and ATS in conference games this season.

Carolina Panthers @ Tennessee Titans -3.5
Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
Sunday 1 p.m. ET

Money Line: Carolina Panthers (+160) ; Tennessee Titans (-190)
Total: 36.5; Opened: 37.5
FPI favorite: Titans by 3.9 (61.5% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets

The Panthers are 2-7-1 ATS this season, all as underdogs. They are 1-4 ATS on the road (0-5 outright).
The Titans are 1-5 ATS in their last six games, including 0-3 ATS in their last three games.
Four straight Panthers games have gone under the total.
The Panthers are one of two teams to be underdogs in every game entering this week (Cardinals).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Indianapolis Colts -2.5
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
Sunday 1 p.m. ET

Money Line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+115) ; Indianapolis Colts (-135)
Total: 44.5; Opened: 42.5
FPI favorite: Colts by 1.6 (54.8% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets

The Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS on the road this season, all as underdogs. Unders are 4-1 in those games.
The Buccaneers have covered four straight games. A cover this week would make their longest cover streak since 2016 (six straight). Only the Vikings have a longer active cover streak (six straight).
The Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS after a loss this season.
The Colts have covered four straight games after a bye.

New England Patriots -3.5 @ New York Giants
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Sunday 1 p.m. ET

Money Line: New England Patriots (-195) ; New York Giants (+165)
Total: 33.5; Opened: 34.5
FPI favorite: Patriots by 8.2 (73% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets

The Patriots are 2-8 ATS, tied with the Falcons for worst in the NFL. They are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games.
The Patriots are 1-5 ATS this season when the line is between +3 and -3, and they are 11-22-1 ATS in that spot since 2018.
The Giants are 3-7-1 ATS this season. Unders are 8-3 in Giants games, including 4-0 at home.
The Patriots are the first team 2-8 or worse to be a road favorite since 2019 (Bengals -2 at Dolphins). If this line moves to 3.5, no team 2-8 or worse has been a road favorite of at least 3.5 points since the 1986 strike season.

Jacksonville Jaguars -2 @ Houston Texans
NRG Stadium, Houston
Sunday 1 p.m. ET

Money Line: Jacksonville Jaguars (-125) ; Houston Texans (+105)
Total: 47.5; Opened: 45.5
FPI favorite: Jaguars by 2.4 (57.3% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets

The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS on the road this season and have covered seven straight road games dating back to last regular season. They are 5-1 ATS as favorites this season. They are 3-0 ATS as road favorites under Doug Pederson.
The Texans have covered five straight games as an underdog and are 5-1 ATS as underdogs this season.
The Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
The Texans have covered four of the last five meetings. Since 2018, the Texans are 10-1 outright and 8-3 ATS against the Jaguars.

Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos -1.5
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET

Money Line: Cleveland Browns (+105) ; Denver Broncos (-125)
Total: 36.5; Opened: 36.5
FPI favorite: Browns by 1 (52.9% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets

Russell Wilson is 1-10-1 ATS as a favorite since joining the Broncos. Overall, the Broncos are 2-10-1 ATS as favorites since the start of last season. They are 1-4 ATS as home favorites this season.
The Browns have covered three straight games. They seek their longest single-season cover streak since 2012 if they cover this week.
Five straight Broncos games have gone under the total.

Los Angeles Rams -2.5 @ Arizona Cardinals
State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET

Money Line: Los Angeles Rams (-140) ; Arizona Cardinals (+120)
Total: 44.5; Opened: 46.5
FPI favorite: Rams by 5.6 (66.3% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets

The Rams are 12-2 ATS against the Cardinals under Sean McVay including playoffs (11-2 ATS in regular season).
The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS at home this season, all as an underdog.
The Cardinals are one of two teams this season to be an underdog in every game entering this week (Panthers).
The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last four games.
The Cardinals are 0-3 ATS in division games this season and 1-8 ATS in division games in the last two seasons.

Kansas City Chiefs -10 @ Las Vegas Raiders
Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET

Money Line: Kansas City Chiefs (-525) ; Las Vegas Raiders (+400)
Total: 43.5; Opened: 44.5
FPI favorite: Chiefs by 13.7 (84.8% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets

The Raiders are 3-0 ATS under Antonio Pierce.
The Raiders are 4-1 ATS at home this season with four straight covers.
Unders are 9-2 in Raiders games this season, the highest under rate in the NFL, including 8-1 in their last nine games.
All five Raiders home games have gone under the total this season.
Six straight Chiefs games have gone under the total, the longest streak in Patrick Mahomes’ career.
The Chiefs are 10-19 ATS in their last 29 games as at least a seven-point favorite. They are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as at least a seven-point road favorite.
The Chiefs are 13-7 ATS against the Raiders under Andy Reid (17-3 outright).
Home underdogs of at least seven points are 8-1-1 ATS this season (5-5 outright). Home underdogs of at least 6.5 points are 9-1-1 ATS and 6-5 outright this season.

Buffalo Bills @ Philadelphia Eagles -3
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET

Money Line: Buffalo Bills (+135) ; Philadelphia Eagles (-155)
Total: 48.5; Opened: 47.5
FPI favorite: Bills by 1.4 (54.3% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets

The Bills are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games.
The Bills have not been underdogs of at least a field goal since Week 14 of 2021 (31 straight games), the 2nd-longest active streak in the NFL.
Josh Allen is 11-5-1 ATS as a road underdog in his career.
Unders are 10-2 in Bills road games in the last two seasons.
The Eagles are 12-4-2 ATS as home favorites under Nick Sirianni including playoffs. They are 10-1-1 ATS when laying eight or fewer points and 5-0 ATS when laying four points or fewer.

Baltimore Ravens -3.5 @ Los Angeles Chargers
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET

Money Line: Baltimore Ravens (-170) ; Los Angeles Chargers (+145)
Total: 48.5; Opened: 46.5
FPI favorite: Ravens by 1.9 (55.8% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets

Lamar Jackson is 22-11-2 ATS in road regular-season games in his career.
The Chargers are 0-3 ATS as underdogs this season.
Seven of the past eight Chargers games have gone under the total. Four of the last five Ravens games have gone over the total.
The Chargers are 1-4 ATS against teams currently with winning records (0-3 ATS in last three games).
Prime-time unders are 27-8 this season (.771). They are 150-93-4 in the last five seasons (.617).

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings -3
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET

Money Line: Chicago Bears (+140) ; Minnesota Vikings (-165)
Total: 43.5; Opened: 44.5
FPI favorite: Vikings by 4.1 (62.2% to win outright)

Betting Nuggets

The Vikings have covered six straight games, the longest streak by any team this season. It’s their longest cover streak since a seven-game streak in 2017.
Justin Fields is 9-18-1 ATS in his career as an underdog.
The Vikings are 5-0 outright and 4-1 ATS against the Bears since 2021.
Prime-time unders are 27-8 this season (.771). They are 150-93-4 in the last five seasons (.617). Monday Night Football unders are 12-1 this season including 10-0 since Week 3.

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