Notable bets: Dak Prescott goes from long shot to MVP favorite

In a month, Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott went from long shot to favorite to win the regular-season MVP at sportsbooks around the nation.

Prescott moved past San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy and into the role of consensus MVP favorite on Sunday after leading the Cowboys to an impressive 33-13 win over the Philadelphia Eagles. Prescott entered Week 10 at 60-1 to win MVP at ESPN BET, behind 11 other players. On Monday, Prescott was the favorite for the first time this season at +160.

Purdy has the second-shortest odds to win MVP at +200, followed by Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson at +700. Miami Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill had climbed to 12-1 last week, but an ankle injury in Monday night’s loss to the Tennessee Titans tempered his momentum. Hill was back to 18-1 on Tuesday, still the shortest odds of any non-quarterback listed.

Prescott passed for 271 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions in the Cowboys’ win over the Eagles. It was one of the best results of Sunday for the betting public, which even in Philly-friendly Atlantic City, sided with Dallas.

Tom Gable, sportsbook director at the sportsbook at The Borgata in Atlantic City, said the Eagles-Cowboys game attracted “by far” the most money of the day. Gable said the bulk of the point spread action was on the favored Cowboys, which is unusual for his book, which typically is full of Eagles faithful. The Borgata did take a $125,000 money-line bet on Philadelphia to win straight-up.

“We ended up losing on the spread, but won on the money line and total,” Gable said. “Booked a decent win on the game overall.”

Dallas is tied with Philadelphia for the fourth-shortest odds to win the Super Bowl at +750. The 49ers are the consensus favorites at +260, followed by the Ravens (+500) and Kansas City Chiefs (+650).

NFL betting notables

The successful run of NFL favorites that began on Thanksgiving Day and lasted into December has come to a crashing halt.

NFL underdogs went 11-4 against the spread in Week 14, with a season-high eight outright upsets. Both underdogs — the New York Giants and Tennessee Titans — won outright Monday night, upsetting the heavily bet Green Bay Packers and Miami Dolphins, respectively.

In the biggest upset point spread-wise of the season, the Titans rallied from 14 down in the final minutes to stun the Dolphins as 13.5-point underdogs. Teams that trailed by 14 points with under three minutes to play had lost 767 consecutive games before the Titans upset, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

For sportsbooks, Monday’s upsets turned what had been a decent weekend into a big boon. “We had an OK Sunday, won some, lost some,” John Murray, executive director of the SuperBook in Las Vegas, told ESPN.

Upsets by the Chicago Bears over the Detroit Lions and the New York Jets over the Houston Texans, along with the Ravens failing to cover in an overtime win over the Los Angeles Rams, produced the biggest wins of the day for the multiple sportsbooks.

Murray noted that the SuperBook also came out ahead on the Cleveland Browns covering the spread in a 31-27 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The line had been as high as Cleveland -3.5 earlier last week, before closing at a consensus -2.5. After a late Jacksonville touchdown that cut the Browns lead to four, Jaguars coach Doug Pederson elected to attempt a two-point conversion, which failed, and Cleveland covered the spread.

“We had a lot of money on the Jaguars,” Murray said. “Crazy ending there in terms of the point spread, but I did think Pederson made the right decision.”

Murray added that the SuperBook got “beat up” on the Saints’ 28-6 win over the Panthers. “I swear the wise guys are on Carolina every week,” Murray said.

Carolina fell to 1-12 straight-up and 2-9-2 against the spread.

The total on the Texans-Jets game closed at 33.5 at ESPN BET, the second-lowest total this season (behind only Patriots-Steelers) and third-lowest in the last decade, according to ESPN Stats and Information. The game was 0-0 at halftime but still went over the total with the Jets winning 30-6. It’s the first game since 1986 to feature no points in the first half and still go over the total.

The Vikings-Raiders game also went to halftime scoreless but did not go over the total. Minnesota kicked a late field goal to win 3-0. No touchdown being scored in the game was listed at 40-1 at BetMGM, which reported no “notable” action on those odds.

DraftKings offered 70-1 on no touchdown and reported taking one $5 bet that won $350.

Week 15 lines

[as of Tuesday; via ESPN BET]

Thursday

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (-3, 33.5)

Saturday

Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 38.5)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 42.5)
Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions (-5 46.5)

Sunday

Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns (-3, 37.5)
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-8.5, 40.5)
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-4.5, 36.5)
Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 37.5) at New England Patriots
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 42.5)
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-2.5, 37.5)
Atlanta Falcons (-3, 35.5) at Carolina Panthers
Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5, 48.5)
San Francisco 49ers (-13.5, 47.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 48.5)
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 43.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Monday

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 47.5) at Seattle Seahawks

College football betting notables

The point spread on the Cotton Bowl between No. 5 Ohio State and No. 6 Missouri moved eight points in a week, transforming the Buckeyes from favorites to underdogs. It’s the largest early movement of any bowl game at Caesars Sportsbook. Ohio State had opened as 6.5-point favorites at sportsbooks, before quarterback Kyle McCord announced his intention to enter the transfer portal last Monday. In 24 hours, Missouri was the favorite, and line continued to tick up throughout the week, with the Tigers now sitting as 2.5-point favorites.

Other early bowl line movement includes:

Myrtle Beach Bowl, Saturday: Georgia Southern moved from a 1.5-point underdog to a 3.5-point favorite over Ohio.

Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl, Dec. 30: Wyoming moved from a 1.5-point underdog to a 2.5-point favorite over Toledo.

The ending of Saturday’s Army–Navy game provided plenty of betting drama, including on one of the lowest over/under totals in college football history.

The total closed anywhere from 27.5 to 28.5. Army, leading 15-11, got a fourth-down stop on its own goal line with seconds left. The Black Knights elected to take an intentional safety on the final play, with quarterback Bryson Daily running out of the back of the end zone, to make the final score Army 17, Navy 11.

Veteran Las Vegas bookmaker Chris Andrews of the South Point was not pleased with the result and posted on social media that he lost on both the over and under:

Middled on a total of 28. When you thought you’ve seen everything…

— Chris Andrews (@andrewssports) December 9, 2023