NFL Week 16 lines: 49ers favored over Ravens in Christmas MNF matchup
Week 16’s NFL schedule is spread out over four days of action beginning Thursday with the New Orleans Saints visiting the Los Angeles Rams. Saturday will feature a doubleheader with the Cincinnati Bengals on the road to face the Pittsburgh Steelers, followed by the Buffalo Bills travelling to their matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers. There are 10 games on the slate on Christmas Eve day, culminating with the New England Patriots at the Denver Broncos. Finally, we have a Christmas Day triple-header beginning with the Las Vegas Raiders at the Kansas City Chiefs, the New York Giants at the Philadelphia Eagles, and the final game of the week will have the Baltimore Ravens travelling to Santa Clara to face the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football on ESPN and ABC.. Keep checking here for updated odds and FPI projections throughout the week.
Projections by ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). Odds by ESPN BET.
Cincinnati Bengals -3 @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh
Saturday 4:30 p.m. ET
Money Line: Cincinnati Bengals (-155) ; Pittsburgh Steelers (+135)
Total: 38.5; Opened: 39.5
FPI favorite: Bengals by 2.8 (58.5% to win outright)
Betting Nuggets
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Five of the past six Bengals games have gone over the total, including three straight.
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The Steelers are 0-3 ATS in their past three games. They are also 0-3 ATS in their past three games as an underdog.
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The Bengals are 0-4 outright and ATS in division games this season. The Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their past six division games.
Buffalo Bills -12.5 @ Los Angeles Chargers
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Saturday 8 p.m. ET
Money Line: Buffalo Bills (-800) ; Los Angeles Chargers (+550)
Total: 43.5; Opened: 42.5
FPI favorite: Bills by 12 (81.7% to win outright)
Betting Nuggets
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The Chargers have not been double-digit underdogs since 1998 Week 13 against the Broncos (+13.5). That is the only time they have been double-digit underdogs in the past 45 seasons.
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Over the past 15 seasons, teams in their first game following a midseason coaching change are 20-12 ATS, including 8-2 ATS since 2020 and 2-0 ATS this season.
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Prime-time unders are 32-17 this season and 155-102-4 (.603) over the past 5 seasons.
Indianapolis Colts @ Atlanta Falcons -2.5
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Money Line: Indianapolis Colts (+125) ; Atlanta Falcons (-145)
Total: 44.5; Opened: 44.5
FPI favorite: Falcons by 0.3 (50.9% to win outright)
Line Movement Alert: Opened Colts -1.5
Betting Nuggets
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The Colts are 9-5 ATS this season, tied for the best record in the NFL.
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The Falcons are 4-10 ATS this season, tied with the Patriots for worst in the NFL. They are 3-10 ATS in their past 13 games.
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The Colts are 5-1 ATS in their past six games when the line is between +3 and -3.
Seattle Seahawks -3.5 @ Tennessee Titans
Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Money Line: Seattle Seahawks (-185) ; Tennessee Titans (+155)
Total: 41.5; Opened: 42.5
FPI favorite: Seahawks by 3.7 (61% to win outright)
Betting Nuggets
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The Seahawks are 3-0 ATS in their lpst three road games.
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The Titans are 12-7 outright and ATS as home underdogs under Mike Vrabel (3-2 outright and ATS this season).
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Over the past two seasons, the Seahawks are 0-3 ATS on short rest.
Detroit Lions -3 @ Minnesota Vikings
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Money Line: Detroit Lions (-155) ; Minnesota Vikings (+135)
Total: 47.5; Opened: 46.5
FPI favorite: Lions by 3.6 (60.7% to win outright)
Betting Nuggets
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The Vikings have covered five straight games as an underdog (5-1-1 ATS this season as underdog).
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Lions games are 9-5 to the over this season, the second-highest over percentage in the NFL. Vikings games are 10-4 to the under, tied for the highest under percentage in the NFL.
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The Lions are 9-5 ATS this season, tied for the best record in the NFL. The Lions are 21-10 ATS since the start of last season, the best record in the NFL. They are 32-16 ATS under Dan Campbell, tied with the Cowboys for the best record since 2021.
Washington Commanders @ New York Jets -3
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Money Line: Washington Commanders (+140) ; New York Jets (-165)
Total: 37.5; Opened: 38.5
FPI favorite: Jets by 2.1 (56.3% to win outright)
Betting Nuggets
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The Jets are 0-4-1 ATS against teams currently with losing records this season.
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The Commanders are 0-4 ATS in their past four games, the longest active ATS losing streak in the NFL. The Jets are 1-6 ATS in their past seven games.
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The Jets have covered four straight meetings with all four games going over the total.
Green Bay Packers -5 @ Carolina Panthers
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Money Line: Green Bay Packers (-230) ; Carolina Panthers (+195)
Total: 37.5; Opened: 36.5
FPI favorite: Packers by 6.7 (69.5% to win outright)
Betting Nuggets
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Panthers games are 10-4 to the under this season, tied for the highest under percentage in the NFL. All six Panthers home games have gone under the total this season.
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The past four Packers games have gone over the total. Seven of the previous eight Panthers games have gone under the total.
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The Packers are 1-6 ATS in their past seven games as road favorites.
Cleveland Browns -3 @ Houston Texans
NRG Stadium, Houston
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Money Line: Cleveland Browns (-150) ; Houston Texans (+130)
Total: 39.5; Opened: 42.5
FPI favorite: Browns by 1.1 (53.3% to win outright)
Line Movement Alert: Opened Texans -2.5
Betting Nuggets
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All six Browns road games have gone over the total this season.
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The Texans have covered seven of the past eight meetings.
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Four of the past five Texans games have gone under the total.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
Money Line: Jacksonville Jaguars (+125) ; Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-145)
Total: 40.5; Opened: 44.5
FPI favorite: Jaguars by 0.1 (50.3% to win outright)
Line Movement Alert: Opened Jaguars -1.5
Betting Nuggets
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The Jaguars are 5-1 ATS on the road this season, and they are 3-0 ATS as road favorites. Under Doug Pederson, the Jaguars are 9-6 ATS on the road (8-1 ATS in past nine), and they are 4-0 ATS as road favorites.
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Four straight Buccaneers games have gone over the total.
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The Buccaneers are 0-6 outright against teams currently with winning records (3-3 ATS).
Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears -4
Soldier Field, Chicago
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Money Line: Arizona Cardinals (+180) ; Chicago Bears (-215)
Total: 43.5; Opened: 44.5
FPI favorite: Bears by 4 (62% to win outright)
Betting Nuggets
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This will be the first time in Justin Fields’ career he has been favored by more than three points. The Bears were 3.5-point favorites in a Tyson Bagent start earlier this season against the Panthers. Prior to that, the last time the Bears were at least 3.5-point favorites was in 2021 Week 17 (-6.5 vs Giants).
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Six of the past seven Bears games have gone under the total, including three straight.
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Five straight Cardinals road games have gone under the total (unders are 6-1 in Cardinals road games this season).
Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins -1
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Money Line: Dallas Cowboys (-105) ; Miami Dolphins (-115)
Total: 49.5; Opened: 50.5
FPI favorite: Cowboys by 0 (50.1% to win outright)
Betting Nuggets
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The Cowboys have covered nine straight games after a loss. They are 11-1 ATS after a loss since 2021, 7-0 ATS since last season and 3-0 ATS this season.
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The Cowboys and Dolphins are both 9-5 ATS this season, tied for the best record in the NFL. Since 2021, the Cowboys are 32-16 ATS, tied with the Lions for best in the NFL.
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The Dolphins are 0-3 outright and ATS against teams currently with winning records this season.
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos -7
Empower Field at Mile High, Denver
Sunday 8:15 p.m. ET
Money Line: New England Patriots (+270) ; Denver Broncos (-330)
Total: 34.5; Opened: 36.5
FPI favorite: Broncos by 5.3 (65.7% to win outright)
Betting Nuggets
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The Patriots are 5-14 ATS as underdogs over the past two seasons (3-12 ATS in past 15 games as underdog).
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The Broncos are 2-10-1 ATS as favorites when starting Russell Wilson (6-7 outright). Overall, the Broncos are 3-10-1 ATS as favorites over the past two seasons.
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Prime-time unders are 32-17 this season and 155-102-4 (.603) over the past five seasons.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs -10
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Monday 1 p.m. ET
Money Line: Las Vegas Raiders (+380) ; Kansas City Chiefs (-500)
Total: 40.5; Opened: 43.5
FPI favorite: Chiefs by 12.4 (82.7% to win outright)
Betting Nuggets
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The Chiefs are 10-17 ATS in their past 27 games when laying at least a touchdown.
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Over the past two seasons, the Raiders are 6-1 ATS with extra rest. The Chiefs are 2-5 ATS with extra rest in that span.
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Raiders games are 10-4 to the under this season, tied for the highest under percentage in the NFL.
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles -13.5
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Monday 4:30 p.m. ET
Money Line: New York Giants (+550) ; Philadelphia Eagles (-800)
Total: 42.5; Opened: 43.5
FPI favorite: Eagles by 15.3 (87.6% to win outright)
Line Movement Alert: Opened Eagles -10.5
Betting Nuggets
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The Giants are 0-5 outright and 1-4 ATS against teams currently with winning records.
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The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their past six division games.
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The Eagles are 11-4-2 ATS as home favorites under Nick Sirianni, including 3-0 ATS this season.
Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers -5
Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET
Money Line: Baltimore Ravens (+190) ; San Francisco 49ers (-225)
Total: 47.5; Opened: 45.5
FPI favorite: 49ers by 4.8 (64.2% to win outright)
Betting Nuggets
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The last time the AFC and NFC favorites met in December or later (regular season) was in Week 15 of 2020. The Chiefs were Super Bowl favorites and AFC favorites, while the Saints were co-favorites to win the NFC. The Chiefs went on the road and beat the Saints 32-29. The Chiefs went on to lose the Super Bowl to the Buccaneers, while the Saints lost in the Divisional Round to the Buccaneers.
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The last time a team with 10+ wins and a .750 winning percentage was at least a 5.5-point regular-season underdog while playing its primary starting quarterback was in 2019 Week 13 when the 49ers were 5.5-point underdogs in Baltimore. The Ravens won that game 20-17.
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This is the second time in the last decade the two Super Bowl favorites meet in a December/January regular season game. The other instance was in 2017 when the Patriots (+225) face the Steelers (+300) in Pittsburgh. The Patriots won that game 27-24 and would go on to lose the Super Bowl to the Eagles. The Steelers would lose in their first playoff game (Divisional Round vs Jaguars).
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Lamar Jackson is 11-1-1 ATS in his career as an underdog (9-4 outright). The only ATS loss came in 2019 against the Chiefs on the hook when he lost by 5 as 4.5-point underdog after the Ravens failed on a late 2-point conversion that would have covered. The Ravens are 18-3-1 ATS as underdogs since drafting Jackson in 2018 (12-10 outright).
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This is Brock Purdy’s 20th career regular-season start. He has never been an underdog. That extends the longest streak to begin a career in the Super Bowl era. Purdy is 12-6-1 ATS in his career as a starter.
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Underdogs have won seven straight Monday Night Football games outright, including both underdogs winning in Week 14. That is the longest streak of underdogs winning outright in Monday Night Football history.
