Christian McCaffrey featured in more than half of fantasy football finals

It’s Christian McCaffrey‘s world. We’re just living in it.

Thanks to the San Francisco 49ers running back’s combined 66.8 PPR fantasy points in Weeks 15-16, the league’s leading total, not to mention his running back-leading 311.4 points that got you into your playoffs to begin with, McCaffrey steered his fantasy teams into ESPN championship matchups in 58.9% of leagues. It’s a stunning rate, the first such number greater than 50% in any of the 10 seasons we have been tracking this stat.

McCaffrey’s statistical accolades are numerous: His 378.2 PPR fantasy points are already 27th-best among running backs in NFL history for a single season, and his is only the 21st instance of a running back averaging 25-plus points per game in a season in which he played at least half his team’s games (his 29.5 in 2019 is also one of the 21). McCaffrey’s current point total is 15th-best among running backs through his team’s first 15 games of any season, and 20th-best among all players, in history. He has 12 games with 20-plus points, tied for fifth-most in a season all-time, and holds a 29.78 point advantage over Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (348.42) for the seasonal lead in total points.

That 2019 season, incidentally, brought us another one of McCaffrey’s elite rate of appearing on ESPN finalists’ rosters, his 48.1% in that year also the league’s greatest.

It’s a heck of a year for a player who has been gaining significant traction in the on-field, NFL MVP race. McCaffrey’s odds (+450) now trail only Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson‘s (-180).

Beyond McCaffrey, the second-most-common running back found on ESPN playoff teams’ rosters is No. 2 overall on finalists’ teams. The Los Angeles Rams‘ Kyren Williams — who scored 40.9 PPR fantasy points in Weeks 15-16, after having scored 20-plus in five of his nine healthy games in the first 14 weeks — is on a finalist’s roster in 40.4% of leagues. It’s quite a feat for a player who was drafted in just 11.1% of ESPN leagues in the seven days immediately preceding Week 1.

Williams isn’t the only waiver-wire gem who has propelled his fantasy teams into striking distance of a league championship. Teammate Puka Nacua, whose 265.7 PPR fantasy points for the season already place him seventh all-time among rookie wide receivers, was picked in only 1.6% of ESPN leagues during the preseason yet now finds himself on a finalist’s roster in 36.5% of leagues. That’s the third-largest rate among wide receivers, trailing only the Detroit Lions‘ Amon-Ra St. Brown (40.0%) and Dallas Cowboys‘ CeeDee Lamb (39.4%).

Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey, drafted in 1.5% of leagues yet now on a finalist’s roster in a position-leading 32.6%, and Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice, drafted in 9.9% of leagues and now in the finals in 28.2% (eighth-best at his position), were also minimally drafted players during the preseason.

Listed below are the 50 players most commonly found on a finalist’s roster in ESPN leagues. Included are their preseason ADPs (average draft position) as well as year-to-date earnings in PPR scoring, followed by some more notes drawn from the list.

58.9% — Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers — ADP: 4.3, 378.20 PPR FPTS
40.4% — Kyren Williams, RB, Rams — ADP: Undrafted, 224.90 PPR FPTS
40.0% — Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions — ADP: 21.0, 281.40 PPR FPTS
39.4% — CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys — ADP: 16.6, 327.50 PPR FPTS
37.6% — Sam LaPorta, TE, Lions — ADP: 165.5, 210.00 PPR FPTS
36.5% — Puka Nacua, WR, Rams — ADP: Undrafted, 265.70 PPR FPTS
35.3% — Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles — ADP: 22.8, 337.04 PPR FPTS
33.2% — Josh Allen, QB, Bills — ADP: 21.0, 348.42 PPR FPTS
32.6% — Brandon Aubrey, K, Cowboys — ADP: 169.7, 161.00 PPR FPTS
32.1% — Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions — ADP: 34.0, 227.80 PPR FPTS
31.2% — Raheem Mostert, RB, Dolphins — ADP: 123.3, 267.70 PPR FPTS
30.8% — Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers — ADP: 71.9, 267.30 PPR FPTS
30.5% — Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins — ADP: 6.3, 341.60 PPR FPTS
30.0% — A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles — ADP: 19.9, 280.40 PPR FPTS
29.9% — T.J. Hockenson, TE, Vikings — ADP: 45.9, 219.00 PPR FPTS
29.4% — Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints — ADP: 56.7, 226.10 PPR FPTS
29.1% — Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers — ADP: 42.5, 278.86 PPR FPTS
28.3% — Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens — ADP: 32.4, 294.88 PPR FPTS
28.2% — Rashee Rice, WR, Chiefs — ADP: Undrafted, 194.80 PPR FPTS
28.0% — Rachaad White, RB, Buccaneers — ADP: 58.0, 246.00 PPR FPTS
27.7% — Breece Hall, RB, Jets — ADP: 55.7, 233.90 PPR FPTS
27.6% — Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings — ADP: 1.5, 155.30 PPR FPTS
27.5% — George Kittle, TE, 49ers — ADP: 56.3, 197.30 PPR FPTS
27.6% — Justin Tucker, K, Ravens — ADP: 87.4, 143.00 PPR FPTS
27.4% — Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers — ADP: 35.8, 220.30 PPR FPTS
26.5% — Jake Elliott, K, Eagles — ADP: 139.7, 143.00 PPR FPTS
26.1% — De’Von Achane, RB, Dolphins — ADP: 166.3, 153.90 PPR FPTS
25.6% — C.J. Stroud, QB, Texans — ADP: 169.0, 242.54 PPR FPTS
25.5% — Brock Purdy, QB, 49ers — ADP: 162.0, 278.00 PPR FPTS
24.6% — Kenneth Walker III, RB, Seahawks — ADP: 56.0, 173.80 PPR FPTS
24.2% — Browns D/ST, D/ST, Browns — ADP: 144.7, 120.00 PPR FPTS
24.0% — Travis Etienne Jr., RB, Jaguars — ADP: 30.1, 242.90 PPR FPTS
23.9% — Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals — ADP: 23.3, 223.60 PPR FPTS
23.9% — Cowboys D/ST, D/ST, Cowboys — ADP: 115.9, 153.00 PPR FPTS
23.7% — Jaylen Waddle, WR, Dolphins — ADP: 26.9, 198.60 PPR FPTS
23.6% — Brandon Aiyuk, WR, 49ers — ADP: 83.1, 219.30 PPR FPTS
23.6% — James Cook, RB, Bills — ADP: 67.5, 219.10 PPR FPTS
23.6% — D’Andre Swift, RB, Eagles — ADP: 97.4, 191.70 PPR FPTS
23.6% — Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys — ADP: 98.5, 297.38 PPR FPTS
23.3% — Bills D/ST, D/ST, Bills — ADP: 106.6, 105.00 PPR FPTS
23.2% — Trey McBride, TE, Cardinals — ADP: Undrafted, 158.30 PPR FPTS
23.1% — Evan Engram, TE, Jaguars — ADP: 86.0, 194.40 PPR FPTS
23.0% — Amari Cooper, WR, Browns — ADP: 45.2, 227.00 PPR FPTS
22.9% — Chris Olave, WR, Saints — ADP: 30.2, 211.10 PPR FPTS
22.9% — Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs — ADP: 6.5, 214.80 PPR FPTS
22.8% — Stefon Diggs, WR, Bills — ADP: 11.4, 251.00 PPR FPTS
22.6% — 49ers D/ST, D/ST, 49ers — ADP: 82.0, 106.00 PPR FPTS
22.5% — David Njoku, TE, Browns — ADP: 100.7, 183.80 PPR FPTS
22.2% — Saquon Barkley, RB, Giants — ADP: 11.1, 190.70 PPR FPTS
21.9% — David Montgomery, RB, Lions — ADP: 83.8, 184.70 PPR FPTS

Late-season injuries, waiver-wire wonders and rookies who rocked

In what has been a season ravaged by injuries, some absences apparently didn’t completely torpedo fantasy teams during the opening playoff round. Wide receivers Tyreek Hill of the Miami Dolphins, absent for Week 15 due to an ankle injury, and Keenan Allen of the Los Angeles Chargers, who missed both Weeks 15 and 16 with a heel issue, as well as Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud, sidelined by a concussion for Weeks 15 and 16, all placed among the top 30 names on the above list.

That all three ranked among the top 11 in total PPR fantasy points through the season’s first 14 weeks — spanning our “regular season” — certainly had a lot to do with it. Heading into Week 15, 70.3% of Hill’s fantasy managers were in the playoffs, the second-highest rate; 68% of Allen’s managers were in, third-highest; and 54% of Stroud’s, 26th-highest. Their finalists’ rates, by comparison were 30.5% (13th), 29.4% (17th) and 25.6% (28th).

Rookies have had quite a say in which teams have advanced to the championship rounds. Besides the aforementioned Nacua and Aubrey, Lions tight end Sam LaPorta, already No. 2 on the list for PPR fantasy points by a rookie at his position (210.0), is on a position-leading 37.6% of ESPN finalists’ teams. Teammate Jahmyr Gibbs, who has scored 20-plus PPR fantasy points in six and 24-plus in five of his past nine contests, has a 32.1% finalists’ rate, third-highest among running backs and 10th-highest overall.

Now the fun begins: McCaffrey draws one of fantasy’s most favorable matchups for a running back in the Washington Commanders in Week 17, but then he faces one of the toughest matchups — in what could be an irrelevant game should the NFC’s playoff seeding be locked in beforehand — against the Rams in the final week. Meanwhile, the Lions, with St. Brown and their rookie standouts, face one of Week 17’s biggest challenges in a road assignment against the Cowboys.

Will they remain our fantasy playoffs MVPs? We shall revisit the discussion in two weeks, when championship matchups conclude. Best of luck to our finalists!