FPI simulates the entire NFL season
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Seth Walder, ESPN Analytics
My usual job is to write about NFL football in terms of probabilities. But today is my annual departure from that, as we’re focusing on our single simulation of the 2024 NFL season. Pure results, total certainty.
To form its projections of the season, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) simulates the full slate of games 20,000 times. But in this exercise, we picked out only one of those simulations to represent a single possible scenario for how things could unfold. After all, life is a single sim. And today, that’s FPI simulation No. 515.
Here are the major storylines from that one simulation, including surprise playoff teams, draft order drama, tight division races and a Super Bowl champion. We applied a little creative license to the details, but the results are all straight from the numbers. Let’s dive into simulation No. 515.
See FPI’s full projections of the season
The Bills and Falcons fall flat
It turned out the Buffalo Bills needed a No. 1 receiver after all. Under offensive coordinator Joe Brady, Buffalo took a more run-heavy approach in this season simulation, but it resulted in the offense taking a step back and quarterback Josh Allen having his worst statistical season since the early parts of his career. The defense couldn’t make up the gap, either, resulting in a disastrous 7-10 playoff-less season for a team that was considered a Super Bowl contender entering the season.
The Atlanta Falcons‘ all-in (well, all-in-ish) bet on the 2024 season went south early, as they opened the season 2-4. Kirk Cousins struggled in his age-36 season while returning from an Achilles injury, and the offense stumbled hard. Atlanta managed a 6-11 record despite being in a weak NFC South. This season did have one bright spot for Atlanta, though, as it served as a cleaner handoff than expected to the Michael Penix Jr. era.
Williams leads the Bears to the postseason
The “Hard Knocks” hype was real — rookie quarterback Caleb Williams immediately brought electricity to the Chicago Bears‘ offense. Williams finished this season as a top-five fantasy quarterback, and wide receiver DJ Moore exceeded 1,300 receiving yards, helping make up for a defense that couldn’t carry over the momentum it had to end the 2023 season. This resulted in high-scoring, back-and-forth affairs that not only added to Williams’ lore but also generated a 10-7 record that allowed Chicago to sneak into the playoffs as the No. 7 seed in the NFC.
The Bears weren’t a one-and-done team, either. They upset the No. 2-seeded Philadelphia Eagles 23-17 in the wild-card round. Sure, the team lost to the Detroit Lions 27-16 in the divisional round in this simulation, but Chicago took a great first step forward to set the table for 2025 and beyond. Williams is here, and the Bears are back.
Eagles win the NFC East after a late-season surge
Entering Week 13, the Philadelphia Eagles sat at 6-6, two games behind the Dallas Cowboys and uncertain of a playoff berth. But in a complete contrast to 2023, Philadelphia found itself down the stretch, as Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio’s units finally coalesced. The Eagles went on a five-game winning streak to end the season. That included a crucial 22-10 win in Week 17 in which their pass rush devastated quarterback Dak Prescott and the Cowboys’ passing attack to snatch the NFC East title away from Dallas via head-to-head tiebreaker.
But the momentum didn’t carry over into the postseason. Though they entered as the No. 2 seed, the Eagles saw their season end abruptly at the hands of Williams and the Bears, who pulled off a surprising upset. Dallas didn’t fare any better, as the Cowboys lost in a playoff blowout for the second straight season, falling 37-14 to the San Francisco 49ers.
The Bengals seize the AFC North from the Ravens
Fresh off Lamar Jackson‘s MVP campaign in 2023, the Baltimore Ravens looked to be the class of a strong AFC North entering 2024. But Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow reminded the NFL why he’s considered one of the league’s best quarterbacks.
Burrow led a voracious passing attack that saw wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase surpass 1,500 yards and Tee Higgins add another 1,100. Burrow finished in the top five in QBR for the first time, and the Bengals took the division at 11-6 on a tiebreaker over Baltimore via a better division record (they split their head-to-head matchups).
Each team got a playoff win, too, with the Bengals taking care of the Jacksonville Jaguars 23-19 in the wild-card round, while the Ravens went on the road to defeat the dangerous Houston Texans 27-24. But a third meeting between the two AFC North rivals was not in the cards, as they were both vanquished in the divisional round in this simulation.
The Bucs do it again
There was a feeling that the 2023 Tampa Bay Buccaneers were a mirage, as they barely won the NFC South with a 9-8 record and then lost offensive coordinator Dave Canales (who had resuscitated quarterback Baker Mayfield‘s career) in the offseason. But Mayfield maintained his strong play, finishing in the top half of the league in QBR and supporting yet another 1,000-yard season from wide receiver Mike Evans. The Bucs ran away with the division at 10-7, with the New Orleans Saints as the next-closest team at 7-10.
It didn’t end there, as the Buccaneers pulled off a 26-20 home upset over the Green Bay Packers to advance to the divisional round for the second straight season. They ended up falling to the 49ers 30-16, but 2024 confirmed that the success of the Bucs’ current core has been no fluke.
1:32
Why McAfee thinks the Buccaneers can be ‘awesome’ in NFC South
Pat McAfee looks at the NFL division odds this season and points out how the Buccaneers can stand out in the NFC South.
The Vikings stumble to the No. 1 overall pick
There was hope, back in the halcyon days of September, that quarterback Sam Darnold would finally figure it out after spending the 2023 season with Kyle Shanahan before playing in Kevin O’Connell’s scheme in 2024. How naïve we were. Darnold did not, in fact, figure it out. The Minnesota Vikings‘ offense crumbled while the rest of the league came up with adjustments to defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ relentless blitzes.
The result? A paltry four-win season. But with the losing came hope in the form of the No. 1 overall pick. With their quarterback already in hand — J.J. McCarthy is the QB of the future here, despite his right meniscus tear — the Vikings enter the offseason in position to deal the No. 1 pick to a QB-needy team for a series of selections that will bolster the roster for an immediate turnaround. The present is bleak in Minnesota, but the future is bright.
The Washington Commanders — who also won’t be in the quarterback market — have the No. 2 pick. The Carolina Panthers, who might be ready to move on from quarterback Bryce Young after finishing 5-12, have the No. 3 selection and are a contender to trade up to the No. 1 spot.
Rodgers and strong defense lead the Jets to the AFC Championship Game
The bright future that the New York Jets imagined, with Aaron Rodgers wearing green and white and starting in a playoff game at MetLife Stadium? Yes, it happened here — twice.
The signs were strong right from the beginning. After dropping a close game to the 49ers in Week 1 on “Monday Night Football,” the Jets rattled off four consecutive victories. While Rodgers didn’t rise to an MVP level, he played well, finishing in the top eight of QBR. But it was the league’s best defense that drove the Jets’ success. Cornerback Sauce Gardner shut down opposing wideouts en route to winning Defensive Player of the Year, and defensive tackle Quinnen Williams disrupted every opponent’s offensive line. Thanks to their strong play — and aided by Buffalo’s collapse — the Jets won the AFC East with ease at 12-5, with the Miami Dolphins finishing second at 9-8.
As the No. 2 seed, the Jets dispatched the Dolphins 23-14 in the wild-card round, then stifled the Burrow-led Bengals with a dominating 27-9 victory in the divisional playoffs. That put Jets in the AFC Championship Game!
1:13
Greeny convinced the Jets are the biggest threat to the Chiefs
Jeff Darlington is shocked by Mike Greenberg’s suggestion that Aaron Rodgers and the Jets are the biggest threat to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC.
This got the normally despondent Jets fan base to begin believing that this could … be … the … year. Until the team met Patrick Mahomes in the conference title game. Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs silenced the Jets, with the Kansas City passing attack overwhelming New York’s top-ranked defense. The Jets fell 31-23, and the Chiefs returned to the Super Bowl in search of a historic three-peat.
The 49ers fail to reach the Super Bowl
The 49ers were cruising for most of the season, entering the final stretch with a 10-3 record. But they slumped at that point, losing four in a row to make the NFC West race interesting. In the end, the 49ers did enough to make the playoffs at 10-7, winning the division by one game over the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks, but it was touch-and-go up until the end.
But the Niners rediscovered their form in the playoffs and were hitting on all cylinders, demolishing the Cowboys in the wild-card round and taking care of the Buccaneers in the divisional playoffs. This set up a rematch with the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship Game.
But this time, the Lions were at home and ready to take advantage. Detroit’s improved defense forced a Brock Purdy interception on the opening drive, and while the 49ers fought back, the Lions held them at arm’s length the rest of the game to prevail 30-24 and reach their first Super Bowl.
Full standings and playoff results
Here are the final regular-season standings based on our one simulation, with three NFC North teams finishing with double-digit wins and reaching the playoffs.
And here is how the first three rounds of the postseason played out before the Super Bowl.
Wild-card round:
(AFC) No. 2 Jets defeated No. 7 Dolphins 23-14
(AFC) No. 3 Bengals defeated No. 6 Jaguars 23-19
(AFC) No. 5 Ravens defeated No. 4 Texans 27-24
(NFC) No. 7 Bears defeated No. 2 Eagles 23-17
(NFC) No. 3 49ers defeated No. 6 Cowboys 37-14
(NFC) No. 4 Buccaneers defeated No. 5 Packers 26-20
Divisional round:
(AFC) No. 1 Chiefs defeated No. 5 Ravens 27-24
(AFC) No. 2 Jets defeated No. 3 Bengals 27-9
(NFC) No. 1 Lions defeated No. 7 Bears 27-16
(NFC) No. 3 49ers defeated No. 4 Buccaneers 30-16
Conference championships:
(AFC) No. 1 Chiefs defeated No. 2 Jets 31-23
(NFC) No. 1 Lions defeated No. 3 49ers 30-24
The Lions beat the Chiefs to win Super Bowl LIX
After losing in the NFC Championship Game last season, Lions coach Dan Campbell said, “Look, I told those guys, this may have been our only shot. Do I think that? No. Do I believe that? No. However, I know how hard it is to get here. I’m well-aware. It’s going to be twice as hard to get back to this point next year than it was this year.”
Twice as hard or not, Campbell and the Lions did it. Quarterback Jared Goff proved he was “good enough for f—ing Detroit,” continuing the relentless efficiency that he showed in offensive coordinator Ben Johnson’s system in 2023 by finishing in the top three in QBR. Cornerback Carlton Davis III bounced back to be a critical part of the Lions’ secondary, and defensive end Aidan Hutchinson took another step toward stardom, recording 14 sacks and forcing four fumbles.
The combination led the Lions to 13 wins and the top seed in the NFC. Detroit took care of upstart Chicago in the divisional round before settling the score in the NFC title game with San Francisco to advance to New Orleans and Super Bowl LIX.
But the Chiefs’ quest for a three-peat stood in the Lions’ way. The additions of wide receivers Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown transformed the Chiefs’ offense into what it had been earlier in Mahomes’ career, with the speedy wideouts allowing Mahomes to throw downfield. Kansas City also won 13 games and earned a No. 1 seed. And though Baltimore gave them trouble, the Chiefs got past the Ravens 27-24 in the divisional round before their offense bested the Jets’ fantastic defense in the AFC Championship Game. The three-peat — the one that Mahomes started talking about almost immediately after winning the Super Bowl last season — was right there, as Kansas City became the first back-to-back champion to get to the Super Bowl the following season.
2:10
Stephen A. curious whether Lions can live up to lofty expectations
Stephen A. Smith picks the Lions to win the NFC North but questions whether the team can win a Super Bowl.
Super Bowl LIX was an offensive showcase. The Chiefs’ offense had early control and staked Kansas City to a 28-14 lead midway through the fourth quarter. But even though cornerback Trent McDuffie held Lions star receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown in check, running back Jahmyr Gibbs recorded 80 yards and two touchdowns receiving.
After the second of Gibbs’ touchdowns cut Kansas City’s lead to eight points, Campbell went for two and converted, cutting the deficit to six. That set up the game’s unlikely hero; wide receiver Kalif Raymond scored on an 8-yard touchdown pass from Goff with three minutes left to play, giving the Lions a 29-28 lead.
For once, the storybook finish didn’t materialize for Mahomes. After a quick first down, the Chiefs found themselves with a fourth-and-10 on their own 39-yard line. Mahomes fired a pass to receiver Rashee Rice, but Detroit safety Brian Branch swatted it away, allowing the Lions to kneel out the clock for a 29-28 victory and giving the franchise its first NFL title since 1957.
ESPN senior sports analytics engineer Hank Gargiulo contributed to this simulation story.
