First bets: Early picks for NFL Week 13 and college football Week 14
Thanksgiving week brings us a full slate of Week 13 NFL action. The games begin Thursday as the Super Bowl favorite Detroit Lions take on the Chicago Bears, then the Dallas Cowboys, fresh off an exciting win over their NFC East rival Washington Commanders, welcome another divisional foe, the New York Giants, to AT&T Stadium. Finally, the Miami Dolphins meet the Green Bay Packers in primetime.
Games continue on Friday as the Las Vegas Raiders battle the Kansas City Chiefs and Sunday’s slate features 11 games with the Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles heading to Baltimore to face Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens at 4:25 p.m. ET. The San Francisco 49ers play the Buffalo Bills on Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football features Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos hosting Jameis Winston and the Cleveland Browns.
Our team takes an early look at the odds to find value before lines move later in the week.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
Joe Fortenbaugh’s first bet: Seattle Seahawks (-2) over New York Jets
Last week: Los Angeles Chargers (13-1) to win AFC.
This line should be Seattle -3 at a minimum. The Seahawks currently find themselves atop the NFC West with everything to play for while the Jets would love nothing more than for this disaster of a season to come to an end. Even when New York was “competing,” they weren’t doing well, as Aaron Rodgers and company have covered the spread just one time over their last eight outings. Get this: In the seven games where New York failed to cover the number during that aforementioned stretch, the Jets missed the closing spread by an average of 11.6 points per game. That’s absolutely dreadful. Look for Geno Smith to stick it to his former team here.
Andre Snellings’ first bet: Detroit Lions (-11) over Chicago Bears
Last week: Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts over 50.5 points. Line closed at 49.5. Lions won 24-6.
The Bears have played better in the two games since firing offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and replacing him with Thomas Brown. Chicago lost to the Packers and Vikings by a combined four points. With that said, the Bears have still lost five games in a row and are a 4-7 football team. The Lions, on the other hand, are a juggernaut. Detroit hasn’t lost since September 15 and have won by an average of 19.3 PPG over their nine-game win streak. The Lions have no weaknesses on either side of the ball; they are the top scoring offense (32.7 PPG) in the NFL and have the second-stingiest scoring defense (16.6 PPG allowed). The Bears are solid defensively but aren’t strong enough on offense to keep up with the high-powered Lions.
Tyler Fulghum’s first bet: Pittsburgh Steelers–Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 46.5
Last week: Denver Broncos (-5.5) at Las Vegas Raiders. Line closed at Denver -5.5. Broncos won 29-19.
We have Mike Tomlin and the Steelers going on the road for a divisional matchup. Last week in a similar situation the under seemed like an easy win, until four fourth quarter touchdowns in Cleveland carried us over the total. Let’s not be deterred by an unfortunate outcome. We should go right back to the well. If you feel more comfortable leaning into the first half under, I have no issue with that. Tomlin has the requisite defense to muddy this game up with a Bengals team whose season is on life support.
Pamela Maldonado’s first bet: Nebraska Cornhuskers at Iowa Hawkeyes OVER 39.5
Last week: Army Black Knights–Notre Dame Fighting Irish under 44.5. Line closed at 44.5. Notre Dame won 49-14.
Iowa’s offense has shown significant improvements this season in nearly all aspects, increasing from 15 points per game in 2023 to 28 points per game in 2024. This is a result of increased third down efficiency and a dominant rushing attack led by Kaleb Johnson, who set an Iowa program record with 20 rushing touchdowns this season, the second-most in the FBS. With a much-improved offensive line, offensive coordinator Tim Lester has implemented a more effective system. The result: the Hawkeyes are 6-0 to the over when playing at home. I’m not stepping in front of this train with a low 39.5 total.
