Betting buzz: NFL favorites dominating December

Everything that happens in sports has additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.

Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.

Key links: Sports betting home | NFL odds page | College football odds page | ESPN BET

Dec. 29: NFL favorites dominating December

David Purdum and Doug Greenberg: Entering Sunday’s nine-game slate, only 14 underdogs have pulled outright upsets this December, tied for the fewest in the month since 2005.

Favorites have covered 57.1% of December games through Saturday and are 26-12 ATS since Week 15, the best cover percentage for favorites during the month since 1985 (63.5%), according to ESPN Research.

On Sunday morning, the five teams that have attracted the most point-spread bets at ESPN BET were all favorites. The most popular bet on the day also was one of the biggest favorite — the Buffalo Bills.

The betting public is siding heavily with the Bills as 10-point favorites over the New York Jets. Sportsbooks reported upwards of 80% of the point spread money bet on the game is on the Bills, who have failed to cover the spread in their last seven games as double-digit favorites.

If favorites stay hot, sportsbooks will likely be facing a big decision on the Monday night when the Detroit Lions face the San Francisco 49ers. The Lions were 3.5-point road favorites Sunday morning, and sportsbooks were reporting lopsided action on Detroit. BetMGM said a 49ers upset would best outcome of the week.

Odds and Ends

The over/under total on the Miami Dolphins–Cleveland Browns game dropped seven points this week and began Sunday at a consensus 33, the lowest of any game this season. Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa has been ruled out and potential rain showers and strong winds are expected throughout the late afternoon kickoff in Cleveland.

The Dolphins began the week as 6-point favorites. The line began dropping Saturday, going from -6 to -4.5 around 11:20 a.m. ET and settled at -3 after reports surfaced of Tagovailoa being downgraded to doubtful. Veteran Tyler Huntley is the Dolphins’ backup QB.

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Dec. 27: Jackson making a late run at Allen for MVP

Doug Greenberg: Less than a week ago, Josh Allen was in full control of the NFL MVP race, showing a commanding -1000 odds lead on Dec. 21 before the Buffalo Bills played the New England Patriots. He ultimately disappointed in that game with 154 passing yards, one passing touchdown, an interception and no rushing TDs.

Meanwhile, Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson dazzled once again in a divisional win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, following it up with a marvelous performance in a blowout win over the Houston Texans on Christmas Day, where he became the NFL’s all-time quarterback rushing yards leader. He entered that contest at +375 to win the league’s highest individual honor and left with +165 odds, while Allen shortened all the way to -200, per ESPN BET.

As of Friday afternoon, Allen shows -225 and Jackson shows +180, but heavy action has been coming in on the Ravens’ signal-caller. ESPN BET reports that, since Sunday of Week 16, Jackson has taken 56.3% of bets and 56.8% of handle, and since Christmas, he’s attracted 68.2% of bets and 50.9% of handle. However, opportune bettors who still believe in Allen are taking advantage of the shorter odds, as he’s gotten 40.5% of the money since Wednesday.

It’s the second year in a row that Jackson has made a late run at MVP. San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy carried -215 odds into last year’s Christmas matchup against Baltimore but would throw four interceptions in the contest, handing favorite status to Jackson, which he would not relinquish on his way to winning his second MVP award. In fact, every season since 2020 has seen a dramatic MVP favorite change in Week 15 or later.

Allen will have a chance to answer and solidify his MVP case when the Bills host the New York Jets on Sunday. Buffalo is a -9.5 favorite, while Allen shows -125 odds to score a touchdown and a passing yards over-under of 224.5 (juiced to the under).

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