Buzz: Penn State among favorites to reach CFP final

Everything that happens in sports has additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.

Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.

Key links: Sports betting home | NFL odds page | College football odds page | ESPN BET

Dec. 31: Penn State among favorites to reach CFP final

David Purdum: The Texas Longhorns and Ohio State Buckeyes enter the quarterfinals as the favorites to win the College Football Playoff, but oddsmakers believe the Penn State Nittany Lions are very much in the mix.

Texas vs. Penn State, at +475 odds, was the most likely championship game matchup as of Friday at ESPN BET. Ahead of their quarterfinal game against Boise State, the Nittany Lions had the second-best odds to reach the title game at +140, in front of the Georgia Bulldogs (+200) and Oregon Ducks (+210), and behind only the Texas Longhorns (+135).

Penn State began Friday as an 11-point favorite over Boise State, with the winner advancing to face either Georgia or the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the CFP semifinal.

The most unlikely championship game matchup was Arizona State vs. Boise State at 500-1 at ESPN BET, entering the quarterfinals. An ESPN BET spokesperson said as of Friday 6% of all bets — and 2% of the money wagered — on the exact title game matchup was on Arizona State-Boise State. All were small bets.

The most popular potential matchup with bettors at DraftKings was Oregon vs. Georgia at 8-1. That matchup had attracted approximately 21% of the money bet on its CFP “name the finalist” market.

An ESPN spokesperson said that while the bulk of the money wagered will come in the hours leading up to Wednesday’s tripleheader, the quarterfinals were “trending towards being our most popular games of the college football season.”

On Tuesday, Arizona State was a 12.5-point underdog to Texas in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl in Atlanta. The Peach Bowl point spread dipped from Texas -13.5 to as low as -11.5 during the week but had ticked back up to -12.5 on Friday.

Ohio State was a 2.5-point favorite over Oregon in Wednesday’s late afternoon game, and Georgia was a 1-point favorite over Notre Dame in the nightcap of the triple-header.

Joey Feazel, who oversees college football odds for Caesars Sportsbook, said the largest bet on the quarterfinals as of Sunday was $100,000 on Notre Dame to beat Georgia straight-up.

Dec. 30: Lions-49ers attracting significant action for MNF

Doug Greenberg: Week 17’s edition of “Monday Night Football” is a strange one. A game that could have had potentially vast playoff implications suddenly has none, with the San Francisco 49ers already eliminated from postseason contention, and the Detroit Lions playing the Minnesota Vikings in a “winner take all” game for the NFC’s No. 1 seed next week, regardless of Monday’s outcome.

All the same, Lions at 49ers is shaping up to be one of the most-bet Monday night games of the season, with BetMGM reporting it to be its most-bet game of the week prior to Sunday’s action. That’s significant because, for any given game, most of the action generally comes just prior to the game actually being played.

Sportsbooks across the marketplace are reporting very lopsided action backing Detroit, both on the money line (-185) and spread (-3.5), per ESPN BET odds, with the sportsbook reporting 82.4% of bets and 91.6% of handle to cover the points.

“The 49ers pulling an upset on Monday would be the best outcome,” BetMGM senior trading manager Tristan Davis said via email prior to Sunday’s action. The sportsbook notes that the MNF favorite is often a popular addition to parlays and the Lions have been getting that treatment, both for the money line and the spread. Favorites have gone 9-5 against the spread and 11-3 straight up thus far in Week 17.

“The 49ers covering would certainly be good for us,” a representative for the ESPN BET trading team said. “The public has been heavy on the Lions since the game opened last week.”

Despite the heavy action on Detroit, the spread has moved very little, if at all, since opening at -3.5. San Francisco has received at least one massive wager, with a bettor at Caesars Sportsbook in Nevada staking $105,000 on 49ers +3.5 (-105) to win $100,000.

The result of tonight’s game will not affect the Lions’ playoff positioning either way since they have already beaten the Vikings once: whether they tie the Vikings at 14 wins this week or next, the outcome of next week’s game is all that matters. That means that there’s a possibility that head coach Dan Campbell could choose to sit some of his starters during the Monday night contest … but given Campbell’s usual attitude, don’t count on it.

“We’re bringing everything we got to this game and we are playing. I don’t care what it looks like and where it’s at and who’s this, who’s that,” Campbell told reporters. “We’re going out to play and win this game, out on the West Coast. So there you go.”

ESPN sports betting writer David Purdum also contributed reporting for this piece.

Dec. 29: Division titles still up for grabs ahead of Week 18

David Purdum and Doug Greenberg: The Minnesota Vikings‘ win over the Green Bay Packers set up a winner-take-all showdown with the Detroit Lions in Week 18 for the NFC North division crown. ESPN BET opened with Detroit as a three-point home favorite and Minnesota +3 juiced to -115.

The Lions were public darlings to win the NFC North all offseason and throughout the campaign, to the tune of 67.3% of the bets and 72.6% of the handle at ESPN BET; however bettors’ eyes have turned to the Vikings of late, as they have attracted 86.8% of the tickets and 96% of the handle in the last two weeks. The market shows Detroit -190 and Vikings +150 to win the division as of Sunday evening.

Race for the NFC South

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers stayed in the NFC South division title conversation by covering a 9.5-point spread during a 48-14 rout of the Carolina Panthers. That puts the pressure on the Atlanta Falcons, who need a road win over the Washington Commanders on Sunday night to continue controlling their own destiny.

Atlanta is a 3.5-point underdog in Washington, but has seen positive money action to the tune of 22.7% of tickets and 33.6% of handle, according to ESPN BET. The Commanders opened at -4.5 at some shops and came down a point, but still have strong support on the moneyline (-185).

Despite the Falcons currently owning the division tiebreaker over the Buccaneers, Atlanta found themselves as +115 underdogs to win the NFC South, with Tampa Bay at -135 odds on Sunday morning at ESPN BET. Following their win Sunday, the Bucs shifted -190 and Falcons +150.

That is likely a result of Tampa Bay’s easier rest-of-season schedule, as well as its huge public support in the market: The Bucs hold 74.3% of the bets and 76.3% of the money overall, with 56.8% of the tickets and 79.9% of the handle in the last two weeks, per ESPN BET.

Tracking the AFC North

There’s a slim chance the Pittsburgh Steelers can still win the AFC North, but following their blowout loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas, they’ll need to beat the Cincinnati Bengals and hope the Baltimore Ravens lose to the Cleveland Browns in Week 18.

Sportsbooks don’t see it as likely: ESPN BET gives the Steelers +1200 odds in the market, with the Ravens showing a dominant -2250. If Pittsburgh did pull out the division title, though, it would be a big win for the public, as the Steelers hold a leading 56% of bets and 52% of handle; Baltimore did gain upwards of 75% in both splits in the last two weeks, but that won’t have much monetary effect on the sportsbook given the longer odds.

Battle for the NFC West

The NFC West has been a rollercoaster all season and it would appear that deciding its champion will be no different. With their win over the Arizona Cardinals on Saturday, the Los Angeles Rams just needed 3.5 wins from other teams to clinch on the strength-of-victory tiebreaker over the Seattle Seahawks, but ended up getting only three.

Nevertheless, the chances of Los Angeles winning the division are nearly certain at this point and the odds Sunday morning reflected that, with the Rams showing -650 and the Seahawks +400. That would be great news for the public, who backed L.A. throughout the season. ESPN BET reports 74.3% of bets and 76.3% of handle backing the Rams as a whole, as well as 60.5% of wagers and 74.7% of money in the last two weeks.

Odds and Ends

The Tennessee Titans made betting history Sunday, falling to 2-14 against the spread (ATS) with their 20-13 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, who closed as 1-point underdogs. It’s the worst ATS record in any season since 1978, when the league went to a 16-game slate. The Titans are the first team to fail to cover the spread in 14 games in any season of the Super Bowl era.

More bets were placed — and more money wagered — on Eagles running back Saquon Barkley to score a touchdown than any other player at ESPN BET’s touchdown-scorer market on Sunday. He attracted 10% of all bets and 11% of the total money wagered on the sportsbook’s touchdown-scorer market. Barkley finished with 167 yards rushing but failed to find the end zone.

Sixteen of the remaining 34 entries into the $14 million Circa Survivor contest backed the Indianapolis Colts and were eliminated by the underdog New York Giants‘ 45-33 upset win.

The Houston Texans (9.5) will be the only season win total at stake in the final week of the regular season.

A bettor with FanDuel hit a $2 three-leg parlay at 3,600-1 that featured three wide receivers to score at least two touchdowns in their respective games. The Chargers’ Ladd McConkey, Bengals’ Tee Higgins and Panthers’ Adam Thielen delivered. The bettor used a $2 promotional bet on the parlay to win $7,200.

The New York Jets closed as 10.5-point underdogs to the Buffalo Bills, tied for the largest underdog role of Aaron Rodgers‘ career (2022 when he was with the Green Bay Packers, also against the Bills). Buffalo won 40-14 in a blowout.

The total on the Dolphins-Browns game closed at 32.5, the lowest of any game this season. Miami won 20-3.

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Dec. 29: NFL favorites dominating December

David Purdum and Doug Greenberg: Entering Sunday’s nine-game slate, only 14 underdogs have pulled outright upsets this December, tied for the fewest in the month since 2005.

Favorites have covered 57.1% of December games through Saturday and are 26-12 ATS since Week 15, the best cover percentage for favorites during the month since 1985 (63.5%), according to ESPN Research.

“When favorites win outright, usually we can point to teasers as the architects of our pain, but parlays haven’t been kind either,” Joe Brennen, head of Prime Sportsbook, told ESPN in a text message Sunday morning. “Straight bets are doing their part, but it’s not enough. Sometimes the ball doesn’t bounce your way.”

On Sunday morning, the five teams that have attracted the most point-spread bets at ESPN BET were all favorites. The most popular bet on the day also was one of the biggest favorites — the Buffalo Bills.

The betting public is siding heavily with the Bills as 10-point favorites over the New York Jets. Sportsbooks reported upwards of 80% of the point spread money bet on the game is on the Bills, who have failed to cover the spread in their last seven games as double-digit favorites.

If favorites stay hot, sportsbooks will likely be facing a big decision on Monday night when the Detroit Lions face the San Francisco 49ers. The Lions were 3.5-point road favorites Sunday morning, and sportsbooks were reporting lopsided action on Detroit. BetMGM said a 49ers upset would best outcome of the week.

Odds and Ends

The over/under total on the Miami Dolphins–Cleveland Browns game dropped seven points this week and began Sunday at a consensus 33, the lowest of any game this season. Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa has been ruled out and potential rain showers and strong winds are expected throughout the late afternoon kickoff in Cleveland.

The Dolphins began the week as 6-point favorites. The line began dropping Saturday, going from -6 to -4.5 around 11:20 a.m. ET and settled at -3 after reports surfaced of Tagovailoa being downgraded to doubtful. Veteran Tyler Huntley is the Dolphins’ backup QB.

The Seattle Seahawks held off the Chicago Bears 6-3 on Thursday in a game with no touchdowns. Jeffrey Benson, director of operations for Circa Sports, said on X (formerly Twitter) that his book took eight bets on no touchdown being scored at odds between 120-1 and 135-1. The largest bet was $176.19 at 135-1, which won approximately $23,785, according to Benson.

The Cowboys-Eagles point spread dropped four points this week, from -11.5 to -7.5, with Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts ruled out with a concussion. Sunday’s game marks the third time Hurts has missed a game against the Cowboys. The Eagles lost the previous two matchups without Hurts, but Philadelphia, at -7.5, is a larger favorite this time than it has been in the previous instances.

The spread for Sunday’s key NFC North showdown between the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings has jumped around all week: After Minnesota opened as a 1.5-point favorite, the line flipped over to Green Bay -1, before quickly coming back to Minnesota -1.5. As of Sunday, 55.2% of bets and 69.6% of the handle was on the Packers.

The Indianapolis Colts are 7.5-point favorites on the road against the New York Giants. The last time the Colts were favored by more than a touchdown, they lost outright to the Jacksonville Jaguars as 14-point favorites to fall out of playoff contention. Indianapolis is 0-2-1 outright the last three times it has been at least a seven-point favorite. Veteran QB Joe Flacco is expected to start for the Colts.

Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow‘s odds to win regular-season MVP moved from 100-1 to 33-1 at ESPN BET, after throwing for 412 yards and three touchdowns in an overtime win over the Denver Broncos on Saturday. All three of Burrow’s touchdown passes went to Tee Higgins, who was 66-1 at BetMGM to score three-plus touchdowns against the Broncos.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are -135 favorites to win the NFC South, with the Atlanta Falcons slight underdogs at +115, per ESPN BET odds. This is despite Atlanta winning and Tampa Bay losing in Week 16, and the Falcons owning the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Buccaneers. Both teams face the Carolina Panthers in the last two weeks of the season, but the Falcons have a tough matchup in Washington on Sunday night, while the Bucs get the Saints at home in Week 18.

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