Betting buzz: Titans end season with all-time worst ATS record
Everything that happens in sports has additional context when viewed from a sports betting perspective. From season-changing injuries to record-setting moments and so much more, the sports news cycle will constantly and significantly affect the sports betting industry.
Our betting buzz file, with contributions from David Purdum, Doug Greenberg and others, aims to provide fans a look at the sports betting stories that are driving the conversation.
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Jan 5: Titans end season with all-time worst ATS record
David Purdum and Doug Greenberg: On Sunday, the Tennessee Titans finished out their regular season with another loss, this time by a final score of 23-14 to the Houston Texans. Coming in as 2.5-point favorites, the Titans dropped to 2-15 (.118) against the spread, the worst ATS record in a season by any team in the Super Bowl era.
For first-year head coach Brian Callahan, it’s the worst start to tenure for any head coach in the Super Bowl era, per ESPN Research. The previous ATS low point was held by the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who went 2-10-2 (.167) ATS in their first season as an NFL expansion team. Six other teams had previously gone 3-13 (.188) ATS.
“It’s a weird situation. The point spread is supposedly the great equalizer for a team no matter how good or bad they are,” John Murray, vice president of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, told ESPN. “I think the Titans franchise is so irrelevant that nobody even noticed.”
Including Sunday, Tennessee was actually a favorite six times throughout the campaign, but failed to cover the spread in that scenario even once, getting close in a three-point win over the New England Patriots as 3.5-point favorites in Week 9. The Titans only two ATS wins of the season came in outright road wins as underdogs against the Miami Dolphins in Week 4 (+2.5) and the Houston Texans in Week 12 (+7.5).
Assuming a vig of -110 each game, a bettor fading Tennessee with $100 each week would be up $1,163.64 by season’s end.
“Caesars had the Titans rated quite low, so their performance was not a real surprise,” Caesars Sportsbook vice president of trading Craig Mucklow told ESPN. “However, as a sportsbook, we look for parity in the spread, and the Titans offered trend bettors good value throughout the year, even when we thought we had set the line at the extreme.”
Bettors once again faded Tennessee en masse on Sunday, with 87.4% of handle backing Houston’s spread at ESPN BET; the Texans also became the last team to hit the over on their season win total (9.5) with the victory.
It also produced something of a silver lining for the Titans: With the loss and the New England Patriots’ win over the Buffalo Bills, Tennessee now holds the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Odds and ends
Opening lines for the NFL wild-card round (per ESPN BET)
The Circa Sports Survivor Contest concluded Sunday with eight winners, who will evenly split the pot of $14,266,000, meaning each contestant will take home $1.78M. The contest began Week 18 with 18 entries, but lost over half of the pool with losses from the Atlanta Falcons (8) and Green Bay Packers (2).
The Chicago Bears defeated the Green Bay Packers outright after entering the contest at 10.5-point underdogs. It matched the largest upset win of the season and the franchise’s largest since 2013 when it was +10.5 to Green Bay.
With the No. 1 seed in the AFC locked up, the Kansas City Chiefs sat their starters and closed as 11.5-point to the Denver Broncos, KC’s largest underdog role since 2014. The Broncos, needing a win to make the playoffs, won big 38-0 in their first time favored over the Chiefs since 2017.
Favorites went 144-127 (.531) against the spread during the 2024 regular season, the second straight winning season for favorites ATS.
Jan. 5: Bettors flock to back Mike Evans in Week 18
David Purdum and Doug Greenberg: With so few games of consequence, the final week of the NFL regular season is perhaps one of the most difficult for bettors. Unsurprisingly, Sunday night’s game with massive implications, between Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions, is the most-bet across the sportsbook marketplace.
As a result, many bettors turn to player props in Week 18, believing they can find an edge related to player contract incentives. While that edge has diminished somewhat over the years as the publicity of the incentives has increased and sportsbooks adjusted the odds on players with financial motivation, the betting public’s appetite to wager on these markets has largely not subsided.
“There are a number of factors to consider when setting player props lines in the final week of the season,” ESPN BET director of North American sports trading Adrian Horton said via email. “Media and fan interest drives a lot of conversation around these incentives, and we find this to be a really engaging aspect of Week 18, when some key players may be resting, or certain games without playoff implications may be less interesting to bettors.”
The star of the 2024 NFL season finale is undoubtedly Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans: If the future Hall of Famer can haul in five or more receptions for 85 or more yards, a $3 million incentive in his contract will kick in. Additionally, his quarterback, Baker Mayfield, adds $500,000 to his contract if he finishes in the top 10 for yards per attempt (he currently ranks eighth), and the Bucs must win in order to clinch the NFC South and qualify for the playoffs.
The betting public is fully aware of this and is backing Evans en masse, even as sportsbooks adjust his props to absurd heights, with ESPN BET listing his receiving yards main line at 99.5; in turn, his alternate line of 80-plus receiving yards (juiced to -325, up from -210 at open) is the most-bet player prop of the day at the sportsbook by both tickets and handle. BetMGM reports Evans over 100.5 receiving yards as its most-bet prop by tickets as well, with DraftKings reporting the same for 90-plus receiving yards (-165).
There is some pushback on the main line at ESPN BET: While 58.1% of the bets are on over 99.5 receiving yards, only 27.7% of the handle is backing it.
Here are some other incentive-adjacent player props to watch on Sunday (betting splits via ESPN BET unless otherwise noted):
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As previously mentioned, Baker Mayfield has his own contract incentive and will be motivated to feed Evans, resulting in 100% of bets and handle on the over of his 249.5 passing yards line.
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Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith will cash in $2 million with 185 or more passing yards, so 78.5% of bets and 70.2% of handle are on his over 249.5 passing yards.
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Denver Broncos wide receiver Cortland Sutton will get $2 million if he attains 82 or more receiving yards, motivating 85.1% of bets and 53.8% of handle on his over 79.5 receiving yards.
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Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray adds $750,000 to his contract with 50 or more rushing yards and a rushing touchdown. DraftKings reports him as its most-bet anytime touchdown scorer (+115) of the day, while his over 50-plus rushing yards (+175) is the third-most-bet yardage prop behind Evans and Sutton receiving yards.
Most-bet anytime touchdown scorers — by total bets
via ESPN BET; as Sunday morning
The underdog Chiefs got into Denver later than expected after weather delayed their departure out of Kansas City. The Chiefs’ official X account (formerly Twitter) posted at 9:25 p.m. ET, Saturday that the team had arrived in Denver.
The line moved slightly toward the favored Broncos on Saturday, as reports of the Chiefs’ travel issues circulated. Denver was an 11-point favorite Sunday morning. Kansas City is the fourth-largest underdog ever for a reigning Super Bowl champion, according to ESPN Research.
More bets have been placed on the Chiefs to cover the spread against the Broncos than any other team on the board Sunday at BetMGM sportsbooks.
Strong winds are expected in Philadelphia and East Rutherford, New Jersey on Sunday. The Eagles host the New York Giants at Lincoln Financial Stadium, where winds are expected to gust to 20 mph. The Eagles were 2-point favorites with the total down to 35.5 on Sunday morning.
The New York Jets host the Miami Dolphins at the Meadowlands, where winds are out of the West and gusting to 20 mph. The Jets were 1-point favorites with the total down to 38.5. Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa‘s status was unclear on Sunday morning as he battles a hip injury.
Odds to win regular-season MVP
via ESPN BET; entering Sunday morning
Josh Allen (-250)
Lamar Jackson (+185)
Joe Burrow (+2000)
Jan. 3: NFL Coach of Year betting favorites clash in Vikings-Lions game
The top two favorites in sportsbook odds to win Coach of the Year will be on the sidelines for the most meaningful game of Week 17, the showdown in Minnesota for the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
In December, Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell surpassed Detroit Lions coach Dan Campbell as the betting favorite for Coach of the Year. O’Connell is a -1600 odds-on favorite to win the award entering Week 17 at ESPN BET. Campbell is next at +600. The Kansas City Chiefs‘ Andy Reid and Washington Commanders‘ Dan Quinn round out the leading candidates at sportsbooks.
O’Connell is the favorite for the award after leading the Vikings to a 14-2 record, by exceeding the betting market’s expectations. The over/under on Minnesota’s wins during the regular season was set at 6.5 at sportsbooks. Only one other team in the last 35 seasons — the 2004 Pittsburgh Steelers — have gone over their win total by more than seven wins, according betting odds archive SportsOddsHistory.com. The Vikings also own the best record against the spread this season at 12-4 ATS (tied with Los Angeles Chargers).
At ESPN BET, O’Connell has attracted more than twice the amount of money wagered than any other coach offered. He has 42.6% of the handle, but only 6.7% of the bets on the Coach of the Year market. In comparison, Campbell has 19.2% of the bets and 20.4% of the handle. Regular-season MVP is the most popular NFL awards betting market, followed by Offensive Rookie of the Year at ESPN BET. The betting interest on Coach of the Year is on par with Offensive and Defensive Players of the Year and more popular than Comeback Player of the Year and Defensive Rookie of the Year, according to an ESPN BET spokesperson.
The Lions were 2.5-point favorites over the Vikings on Friday.
Jan. 2: Point spread grows quickly on Ohio State-Texas CFP semifinal
David Purdum: The perception of Ohio State has changed significantly over the past two weeks. The Buckeyes are now the clear-cut favorites to win the College Football Playoff at sportsbooks, and the point spread on their semifinal matchup with Texas has grown by as much as five points.
Early lines on a potential Ohio State-Texas semifinal matchup posted at some sportsbooks had the Buckeyes as 1.5-point favorites over the Longhorns. However, after Texas squeaked past Arizona State in double overtime and Ohio State blew out No. 1 Oregon on Wednesday, the Buckeyes opened as low as 4.5-point favorites over the Longhorns in the Cotton Bowl. By Thursday morning, Ohio State was a 6-point favorite at ESPN BET and as high as 6.5 at other sportsbooks.
Ohio State overwhelmed Tennessee and Oregon in its first two playoff games, outscoring the Volunteers and Ducks by a combined score of 83-38, with most of the opponents’ scoring coming after the Buckeyes had jumped out to huge leads.
The Buckeyes are now the favorites to win the CFP, listed at +120 at ESPN BET. Texas is next at +300, followed by Penn State at +475. The Nittany Lions will face the winner of Georgia–Notre Dame.
The betting favorite has won each of the first seven CFP games. Notre Dame was a consensus 1-point favorite over Georgia on Thursday morning, ahead of the Sugar Bowl.
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