2024 NFL betting: Three picks for all 32 teams
Here we are in the dog days of summer patiently waiting for our favorite NFL team to starts its season. Thanks to free agency, coaching changes and the draft, optimism for many teams will be higher now than it will be at any point this season (unless you’re a Kansas City Chiefs fan). And thanks to ESPN BET, you can add to that excitement by building your 2024 NFL betting portfolio right now.
Here’s a look at three intriguing bets for every team, including one for Week 1 of the season. Teams are listed in order from the lowest expected win totals to the highest.
All odds current as of publication time and courtesy of ESPN BET
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New England Patriots: O/U 4.5 wins (-165/+140)
With the over juiced to -165, I’m not interested in laying that much. It’s an under or pass, hoping Jerod Mayo’s first year bottoms out with a very thin roster on offense. The Patriots rank 31st in ESPN’s initial 2024 Football Power Index and are a +375 favorite to have the fewest wins in the NFL this season.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Rhamondre Stevenson over 4.5 rush TDs (-140)
Stevenson signed a four-year, $36 million extension with the Patriots this offseason. Even with adding Antonio Gibson to the running back room, they’re clearly committed to Stevenson as a focal point of this rebuilt offense. Despite the belief that the Pats won’t be a prolific offense this season, this number is very low for a player who can reasonably expect the bulk of the goal-line carries.
Week 1 bet: Patriots-Bengals Under 43.0 points (-110).
Do we really trust Jacoby Brissett or rookie Drake Maye — making his first NFL start — to go on the road in Week 1 and carry the Patriots’ offense to half of the bargain on the scoreboard? I’m not sure I do.
Carolina Panthers: O/U 5.5 wins (-115/-105)
This is one I’ll probably stay away from because the number is so sharp, but if I had to lean to one side or the other, I’ll be the optimist and lean over 5.5 (-115). I’m a big believer in what new coach Dave Canales will do for Bryce Young and this offense. Carolina plays in an unimposing NFC South. I don’t think this is a playoff team by any stretch of the imagination, but I think they can move from 2-14 to 6-11 in one year.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Bryce Young over 3,175.5 pass yards (-115)
Young had a disastrous rookie campaign that has many wondering whether he’s already a bust. Canales should pay immediate dividends on Young’s numbers. He helped Baker Mayfield earn a $100 million contract last year as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers‘ offensive coordinator and Geno Smith earn a $75 million contract the year prior as the Seattle Seahawks‘ QBs coach. The upgraded receiving room with Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette will also be a big benefit.
Week 1 bet: Panthers +5 (-110) at Saints
I believe the presence of Canales will lift this Carolina offense from the doldrums. One thing I never do is bet my money on a Dennis Allen-coached team. He’s one of the worst cover coaches in the league with a 27-42-1 ATS record (39%). With this total being the lowest on the board in Week 1 (40.5 points), +5 should be extremely valuable.
Denver Broncos O/U 5.5 wins (-140/+120)
I really respect Sean Payton’s acumen and ability, but while the Broncos’ schedule appears to be easy on paper, it’s hard to lay -140 on the over with Zach Wilson and rookie Bo Nix as the QB options. This line is probably a pass. Yes, the Broncos play the Raiders twice and match up with the NFC South across conferences, plus they have one of the better home-field advantages in the league. But I just can’t get past the QB issue when looking at that price on 6-plus wins.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Bo Nix under 16.5 pass TDs (-115)
I am always very comfortable taking a rookie QB to go under his season-long props. First off, it’s not certain that Nix will be the starter from Day 1. Even if he is, do we think this Broncos offense is going to be one of the most potent in the league? And then, there is the prospect profile that had some wondering whether he was more of a second- or third-round prospect and not a first-rounder.
Week 1 bet: Seahawks -5 vs. Broncos
With slight hesitance, I’ll lay the -5 with the Seahawks. I don’t love it, but I think Seattle should be able to beat Nix or Wilson by a touchdown at home. My only pause comes from Payton coaching in his 259th game as an NFL head coach and Mike Macdonald in his very first. Despite that, I do think Macdonald is sharp and Seattle’s new offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb, should be able to get a lot out of the Seahawks’ offensive personnel with Geno Smith at the helm.
Arizona Cardinals O/U 6.5 wins (-155/+135)
I’m not enamored with the price, but I do think the Cardinals can go 7-10 in 2024. I lean toward over 6.5 wins (-155). I think I can find five to six games on the schedule where they’ll be the betting favorite. Sprinkle in an upset or two because of an improved offense, and we’re there.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Kyler Murray over 3,425.5 pass yards (+100)
Murray eclipsed this number in each of his first three seasons in the league, but because of poor injury luck, he has failed to come close in the past two. As long as he stays healthy, I’m very comfortable thinking he can eclipse this mark with two dynamic weapons to throw to in rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and breakout third-year TE Trey McBride.
Week 1 bet: Cardinals-Bills over 48 points (-110)
I think we have serious sneaky shootout potential in Orchard Park. I’ll play the Cardinals’ matchup with Buffalo over 48.0 (-110). You might be surprised to discover Arizona led the league in explosive run rate (10-plus yards) last year at 15.1%. Buffalo ranked a very respectable 10th in that metric. Both teams can run the rock and both QBs — Josh Allen and Murray — can make big plays happen through the air and on the ground. Add in the debut of Harrison, and I like the setting for this game to pop off in Week 1.
Las Vegas Raiders O/U 6.5 wins (-130/+110)
I really like under 6.5 (+110). The Raiders are stuck with Gardner Minshew and/or Aidan O’Connell at QB this season. That’s just not good enough to get to 7-plus wins in my eyes.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Brock Bowers under 675.5 receiving yds (-130)
Bowers is a fantastic young prospect stuck in a horrible situation. First of all, Antonio Pierce made it abundantly clear that he’s going to run the football as often as possible. Frankly, it makes sense given his option at QB. Second, the majority of the target volume in this offense is going to be sucked up by WR Davante Adams. Even second-year TE Michael Mayer provides some level of competition that hinders Bowers’ upside.
Week 1 bet: Raiders-Chargers under 43.5 points (-115)
Under 43.5 (-115) might be my favorite Week 1 bet right now. Pierce and Jim Harbaugh could conceivably run the ball more than 80 times in this game. Each offense is severely lacking in big-play ability. The Chargers have few threats at WR and the Raiders don’t have a reliable QB to get the ball to Adams. This has all the makings of a 17-13 kind of game.
Minnesota Vikings O/U 6.5 wins (-140/+120)
Editor’s note: Updated as of August 15.
This is another one where I’ll default to the price on the under 6.5 (+120). The first two months of Minnesota’s schedule are pretty brutal. And even if they start poorly, now head coach Kevin O’Connell can’t even turn to his prize rookie QB J.J. McCarthy who had season-ending meniscus surgery in the preseason. Add some difficult NFC North competition, and the under is most appealing here.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Justin Jefferson over 1275.5 receiving yards (-115)
Jefferson is a QB-agnostic type of talent at wide receiver. It doesn’t really matter who’s throwing the ball — he’s going to produce as long as he stays healthy. Jefferson had a 12-catch, 192-yard performance in Week 17 last year with Nick Mullens as his QB. He’ll get his targets and he’ll produce yards whether it’s Darnold or McCarthy throwing him the rock.
Week 1 bet: Giants (PK) vs. Vikings
In a coin flip game, I’ll side with the Giants (PK) at home in Week 1. While the Giants certainly weren’t as good as their 2022 record indicated, I similarly think they aren’t quite as bad as their 2023 record. Daniel Jones should be fully recovered from his ACL injury, and now with Malik Nabers and a healthier O-line around him, I think you’re getting about 1.5 points of value in this spot on the G-Men.
New York Giants O/U 6.5 wins (+120/-140)
If Daniel Jones can stay healthy, I’ll bite on the value of the Giants going over 6.5 (+120) wins. I don’t think this is a playoff team, but I also don’t think this is a bottom-dwelling roster. Wide receiver Malik Nabers has the prospect profile of a superstar. Andrew Thomas is one of the best left tackles in the league. Same for Dexter Lawrence II at nose tackle. They have two dynamic pass rushers in Kayvon Thibodeaux and free agent addition Brian Burns. I can easily see this team getting to at least a 7-10 record.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Malik Nabers over 850.5 receiving yards (-115)
I have to admit that when I first saw this number posted, I wanted to bet the under. I even mentioned it on ESPN BET Live. But after further reflection, I really like the situation Nabers steps into. There is very little target competition for Nabers in this offense. There’s a lot of depth, but no one matches his ability. I don’t think Jones is an elite QB, but I trust Brian Daboll and Mike Kafka to intelligently game plan to get the ball in Nabers’ hands as often as possible.
Week 1 bet: I’m still going with the Giants (see above).
Tennessee Titans O/U 6.5 wins (+115/-135)
I’d rather fire on the under 6.5 wins (-135) than the over with this team in this division. I think they enter 2024 with the weakest QB in the division. I’m not saying Will Levis can’t or won’t be good, it’s just at this moment I’d rather have C.J. Stroud, Trevor Lawrence or Anthony Richardson. Brian Callahan should help make this a more legitimate offense; it just doesn’t look like enough to be a seven-win team.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Will Levis over 3,450.5 passing yards (-115)
The Titans did well to upgrade the environment around their second-year QB. Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd bolster the WR room with veteran ability on the perimeter and in the slot. Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears are both adept in the pass game out of the backfield. Callahan comes over from a Cincinnati scheme that passed the ball at a high rate. This is a very reasonable number for Levis to achieve in Year 2, especially if the Titans are trailing often this season.
Week 1 bet: Titans (+4.5) vs. Bears (-110)
The Titans are in Chicago taking on the Bears and Caleb Williams in his first start. I think Chicago is going to be an improved team, but I think the markets have been a little aggressive with that assumption. I’ll take anything over a field goal with the visiting Titans, who I wouldn’t be surprised to see go into Chicago in Week 1 and earn an upset victory.
Washington Commanders O/U 6.5 wins (-120/even)
Jayden Daniels is going to be fun to watch in his rookie season, but this is an under 6.5 wins (+100) wager for me. Although Dan Quinn is a new head coach with a defensive background, I think the Commanders will struggle on that side of the ball. This could be a team that plays in a lot of high-scoring and entertaining games if Daniels is the real deal.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Terry McLaurin over 900.5 receiving yards (-115)
McLaurin has long been one of the most skilled receivers in the league stuck with below-average QB play. Daniels immediately brings a set of skills throwing the ball to the deep and intermediate parts of the field that fit with where McLaurin wins. McLaurin has cleared this mark in all five of his NFL seasons, so I see injury as the only threat to the over in 2024.
Week 1 bet: Over 41.5 (-105) at Tampa Bay
Like I mentioned earlier, the Commanders are a potential “sneaky shootout” team for 2024. If Daniels pays immediate dividends for Washington’s offense, he could help force the Commanders into a lot of overs in 2024 because I don’t think Dan Quinn’s defense has the personnel to consistently stop opposing teams right now.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: O/U 7.5 wins (-145/+125)
I’d rather bet the Bucs to finish under 7.5 wins (+125) than bet them to get to 8 or more. Tampa Bay is basically running it back from a season ago minus OC Dave Canales — who is now coaching a division rival. They’ve re-signed Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Tristan Wirfs, Antoine Winfield Jr., who are all good to great players. However, I think the loss of Canales is going to be felt significantly. The offense overachieved on the way to nine wins a season ago, so I could see them dropping a couple down to seven or less, especially if their top-heavy roster gets dealt some bad injury luck.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Mike Evans under 1050.5 receiving yards (-115), under 8.5 receiving TD (-110)
Evans is the only receiver in the history of the NFL to begin his career with 10 consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. It’s something that he and the franchise are incredibly proud of. Evans has also been remarkably durable in his 10-year career. He’s headed to the Hall of Fame. I’m, however, looking at his unders in 2024. He could still get to another 1,000 yard season and come in under this total. In fact, he’s had three such seasons under 1,050.5 in his career. And after leading the NFL in receiving TDs last season, I want to bet on regression in that category as well.
Week 1 bet: Over 41.5 (-105) vs. Commanders
Like I mentioned earlier, this is a potential “Sneaky Shootout” team for 2024. If Daniels pays immediate dividends for the offense, he could help force the Commanders into a lot of overs in 2024 because I don’t think Dan Quinn’s defense has the personnel right now to stop a lot of offenses.
New Orleans Saints O/U 7.5 wins (-120/even)
Dennis Allen is my favorite head coach to fade, so I’ll take under 7.5 (+100). Derek Carr also does little to inspire me at the quarterback position. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Saints actually finish behind the Panthers in the division this year.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Chris Olave over 1,025.5 receiving yards (-115)
Olave is easily the best weapon in this offense, which now has Klint Kubiak as the new OC. The third-year pro has eclipsed this mark in each of his first two seasons, and with Michael Thomas now gone and very little else established around him, Olave should be a consistent target earner. I think he is poised to have a great season for a mediocre-to-bad team.
Week 1 bet: Sticking with the Panthers to cover (see above).
Seattle Seahawks O/U 7.5 wins (-130/ +110)
Seattle has a roster on paper that should be able to compete with every team in the NFC, including the San Francisco 49ers. New head coach Mike MacDonald is considered one of the brightest young minds in the game, and he tapped into college to grab former Washington Huskies offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb as his new OC. The Seahawks are a team that shouldn’t shock anyone if they’re contending for a playoff spot come January. I’ll go over over 7.5 (-130).
Season-long prop I’m watching: Geno Smith over 3450.5 passing yards (-115)
Smith soared over this total in 2022 and, even in a 2023 that saw major regression, he was still able to surpass this number. His WR corps is deep and versatile with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Ryan Grubb should only help him leverage that talent through the air.
Week 1 bet: See the Broncos section above.
All odds current as of publication time and courtesy of ESPN BET.
Chicago Bears O/U 8.5 wins (-155/+135)
I’ll look at an alternate total and play under 9.5 (-145). It’s less juicy than paying the price on them to go over 8.5 and, while I think the team is poised to make a jump with Caleb Williams, the market is assuming that a little more aggressively than I believe to be true. The NFC North is going to provide difficult competition.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Caleb Williams to win Rookie of the Year (+150)
Despite being an overwhelming preseason favorite in this market, I don’t hate the price on Williams. Jayden Daniels is likely the stiffest competition, but I think the Bears will be at least a couple of wins better than the Washington Commanders. Williams also has a very friendly environment to step into for immediate production with DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze to throw to.
Week 1 bet: Titans +4.5 (-110)
The Titans are in Chicago taking on the Bears and Williams in his first start. I think Chicago is going to be an improved team in 2024, but I think the markets have been a little aggressive with that assumption. I’ll take anything over a field goal with the visiting Titans, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tennessee go into Chicago in Week 1 and earn an upset win. Betting against rookie QBs in their first ever start is usually a profitable endeavor.
Cleveland Browns O/U 8.5 wins (-140/+120)
Handicapping the Browns comes down to how good you think Deshaun Watson is. It’s looking more and more like he’ll never be the QB he once was, but this roster and head coach were good enough to get this team to the playoffs last year with Joe Flacco handling the most important games down the stretch. That alone makes me think the floor for this team is eight wins.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Myles Garrett to win Defensive Player of the Year (+750).
Why not run it back with the 2023 NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Garrett is the most physically imposing defensive presence in the NFL. He’s a rare blend of size, speed, and athleticism and he’s in his athletic prime. He could be beginning an Aaron Donald-like run of dominance and Cleveland should once again have a very good defense. If the Browns contend for the AFC North or if Garrett racks up a career-high number of sacks, he’s going to be right there in this market at the end.
Week 1 bet: Cleveland and Dallas face off in Week 1, meaning viewers will get treated to either Micah Parsons or Myles Garrett on almost every snap of the game. It also means I like the game to go under 43.5 (-105). The Cowboys’ offense line looks much weaker on paper this year and I’m not convinced we can trust Watson to lift an offense at this point in his career.
Indianapolis Colts O/U 8.5 wins (+105/-125)
I am buying all the stock I can in the Anthony Richardson/Shane Steichen duo. I think they are capable of something really special from a statistical standpoint if Richardson stays healthy the entire season. Not surprisingly, I’ll take the Colts over 8.5 wins (+105). Everyone is excited about the Texans being a trendy Super Bowl pick after last year, but we shouldn’t forget that it was the Colts who were just a dropped 4th-down pass away from winning this division… without Richardson at QB. I’m comfortable playing the Colts to win the AFC South as a dark horse candidate while everyone else is focused on Houston.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Anthony Richardson to win MVP (+3000).
If I’m going to play any QB in this market that is not one of the top 4-5 favorites, I’m definitely looking hardest at Richardson. He accounted for 7 TDs (four rushing) in just 173 snaps as a rookie. It’s not unreasonable to think he can maintain that rate. Shane Steichen almost led the Colts to the playoffs with Gardner Minshew as his QB after Richardson’s injury.
Week 1 bet: Colts-Texans over 48.5 (-105)
It’s Richardson vs. Stroud. It’s indoors, on turf. Sign me up for a shootout. This should be one of the most enjoyable games on the Week 1 slate. Both offenses should be able to push each other, and the Colts are expected to be one of the fastest-paced teams in the league, which boosts play volume for their opponents. That’s a good thing for scoring against an offense as efficient as Houston’s.
Jacksonville Jaguars O/U 8.5 wins (-110/-110)
This is tough because I am a believer in Trevor Lawrence as a franchise quarterback, but I’m taking under 8.5 (-110) with the slightest lean for 2024. Lawrence feels like the modern-day Matthew Stafford: a Super Bowl caliber QB taken No. 1 overall by a franchise incapable of maximizing his talents. Because of Lawrence, I don’t think this team bottoms out with just 4-5 wins, but since I like the Colts so much and I have to respect what the Texans look like on paper as the division favorites, it’s hard to get the Jaguars to nine-plus wins. I don’t love it, but I think this is the third-best team in the division.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Trevor Lawrence over 21.5 passing TD (-120)
Lawrence cleared this mark in 2022 with 25 passing scores but fell back to 21 in 2023. I like him to bounce back and go over this mark in 2024 with maybe his best year statistically of his career. The Jags are set up to play fast and throw a lot and he has plenty of weapons at his disposal with rookie first-rounder Brian Thomas Jr. and free-agent acquisition Gabe Davis joining incumbents Christian Kirk and Evan Engram.
Week 1 bet: One of the most difficult situational tests in all of football is playing an early season game in Miami. The heat and humidity is stifling for the opponent as the Dolphins put them on the sun-drenched sideline and make them wear their dark uniform option. Mike McDaniel’s offenses have always looked their most potent early in the season before the newest wrinkles get put on tape. Even though I think Trevor Lawrence is the better QB in this game, I’ll still ride with the Dolphins -3.5 (-105).
Los Angeles Chargers O/U 8.5 wins (-150/+130)
I am excited to see what impact Jim Harbaugh has on the Chargers in 2024, but I worry that we’ll have to wait until 2025 to see more tangible results. The team is likely the second best in its division but the gap between Kansas City and everyone else is like the largest of any division in the league. An 8-9 record sprinkled with a few upsets and a lot of close, low-scoring losses seems like the most likely outcome, so I like under 8.5 wins (+130).
Season-long prop I’m watching: Jim Harbaugh to win Coach of the Year (+1100)
This is a is a bet I do not want to make. He’s the second-favorite in this market behind Matt Eberflus because of his name cachet and past experience elevating programs. While I think the Chargers will be better because of Harbaugh’s presence, I don’t expect them to take the AFC West from the Chiefs. It’s a pass for me on Harbaugh in this market unless his price dips below +1500.
Week 1 bet: Chargers-Raiders under 43.5 (-115)
This might be my favorite Week 1 bet to make right now. Jim Harbaugh and Antonio Pierce could conceivably run the ball more than 80-plus times in this game. Each offense is severely lacking in explosive play ability and the Chargers have few threats at WR while the Raiders have no QB we can trust to maximize the talents of Davante Adams. This has all the makings of a 17-13 game.
Los Angeles Rams O/U 8.5 wins (-135/+115)
As someone who foolishly overlooked the Rams in 2023, I won’t make that mistake again with a team coached by Sean McVay and quarterbacked by Matthew Stafford. I like the Rams over 8.5 wins (-135) and to make the playoffs. Losing Aaron Donald is massive, but McVay and his staff showed last year that this is still one of the best run football operations in the league. They’ve smashed the draft with players like Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, Kobie Turner and Byron Young. This team should be back in the playoffs again this year and contend with the 49ers for the NFC West crown.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Jared Verse to win Defensive Rookie of the Year (+1200)
2023 rookies Kobie Turner and Byron Young were threats to win this award last year, so why not lean into the Rams first first-round pick in eight seasons. Verse will be able to team with last year’s duo plus his Florida State teammate Braden Fiske to help account for the loss of Aaron Donald with strength in numbers. Due to his high-intensity motor and brute strength on the edge, Verse could run into eight-plus sacks as a rookie playing off the young talent around him.
Week 1 bet: In a rematch of last year’s highly-entertaining wild-card round matchup, I’ll take the Rams with the points +3.5 and ML (+155). Los Angeles covered this number in their last meeting and almost won the game outright. I think they’re a live underdog to win the game outright but having more than a field goal head start on the scoreboard sounds good to me with how strong their offense should be again. I think we’re in for another tightly contested “coin flip” game.
Pittsburgh Steelers O/U 8.5 wins (+135/-155)
Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season in 17 years on the sideline in Pittsburgh. This is the easiest over 8.5 (+135) of any team in this market. I don’t care if it’s Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, or 75-year old Terry Bradshaw playing QB for this team. They will win at least nine games. The defense still has T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick. New OC Arthur Smith is actually a great stylistic fit with how they’ll want to play on offense given the personnel. Just never bet on Mike Tomlin to win fewer games than he loses in a season. It’s proven to be a fool’s errand for 17 consecutive seasons.
Season-long prop I’m watching: It’s not posted at ESPN BET, but I want to know if you think Justin Fields will make more or less than 3.5 starts this season? I think we’ll see him under center for at least four games, most likely at the end of the season. Why wouldn’t Pittsburgh want to see what they have with the former first-round selection. If he plays poorly, then the Steelers will know they need to invest heavily in the position via the draft and free agency in the offseason. If he plays well, they can probably re-sign him at a reasonable rate to enter 2025 as the unquestioned starter — who is still one of the most exciting players at the position in the league.
Week 1 bet: Steelers +2.5 (-110) | ML (+115)
This will be the first game of the new era in Atlanta Falcons football. The fans will be excited to see how Raheem Morris, Zac Robinson and Kirk Cousins will leverage the immense talents of Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson. I’m excited too. But man, it just feels like Fitzpatrick or Watt will make some kind of crazy play in the 4th quarter that sets up a game-winning field goal in the final seconds for the Steelers to spoil the season debut for Atlanta in front of their home fans.
Atlanta Falcons O/U 9.5 wins (-140/+120)
The price is far from a bargain, but I’ll bite on the Falcons going over 9.5 wins (-140) in 2024. Atlanta’s offense should be better structured to use the talents of its best players. Kirk Cousins is a very good ball distributor that should help Drake London and Kyle Pitts to the best statistical seasons of their careers. Bijan Robinson has the talent to look like prime Todd Gurley in this offense if new OC Zac Robinson uses him the way his old boss Sean McVay used Gurley with the Rams from 2016-18. The NFC South is a weak division that should help Atlanta to a 10-7 record and the division title.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Bijan Robinson to win Offensive Player of the Year (+1800)
Remember how I just said Robinson could look like prime Todd Gurley in this offense? Gurley won Offensive Player of the Year in 2017. He led league in yards from scrimmage (2,093) and total TDs (19) on 343 touches. Robinson was only afforded 272 touches by Arthur Smith as a rookie. It’s time to take the training wheels off and give this man 350-plus touches and watch him eat
Week 1 bet: Same as the Steelers
Green Bay Packers O/U 9.5 wins (-135/+115)
The Packers are the closest thing to the Houston Texans of the NFC. Everyone is salivating at the thought of betting Green Bay to take another leap after last year’s strong finish. I too, lean over 9.5 wins (-135). I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Packers end up as the NFC North champion over the favored Lions. Jordan Love appears to be the real deal, Matt LaFleur is a very good head coach, and the defense has a lot of talent for new coordinator Jeff Hafley to work with.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Jordan Love under 27.5 passing TDs
Love threw 32 TD passes in his breakout 2023 campaign. His TD prop for 2024 is a lofty 27.5. Only Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy have a higher listed over/under at ESPN BET. I would lean to the under 27.5 (-130). The Packers should be an efficient and capable offense through the air, but they might be playing more games in 2024 “from ahead” in the second half. I can see this number falling back a bit for Love while he still is playing very well.
Week 1 bet: Packers-Eagles Under 48.5 points
The Packers and Eagles play the first ever NFL game in Brazil on a Friday night in Week 1. This is going to be an unusual experience for both teams and, because of the unfamiliarity with what to expect, I lean to the under 48.5 (-110) in this matchup. These should be two of the best offenses in the NFC, but I wonder if the conditions are going to be optimal for each side to operate at peak efficiency? It’s a lean in the summertime that I’ll have to revisit come September when we get closer to kickoff and get more information about weather, field conditions, etc.
Houston Texans O/U 9.5 wins (-140/+120)
It’s hard to see what the Texans did last season, coupled with an offseason where they added WR Stefon Diggs and DE Danielle Hunter, and bet anything but over 9.5 wins (-140). The price (and my affection for the Colts) make this a bet that lacks significant conviction, but the Texans are likely to be a very good team in 2024. They’re built to win now, and the front office did a good job of leveraging that window this offseason. I can see a wild-card team from the AFC South being a 10-plus win team whether it’s Houston, Indianapolis or someone else.
Season-long prop I’m watching: C.J. Stroud to win MVP (+850)
Things are getting out of hand with Stroud in the MVP market (+850). His price is tied with Josh Allen for the second-shortest in the league behind only Patrick Mahomes. Stroud was incredible as a rookie, but the hype has artificially inflated his pricing in this market into a stratosphere it doesn’t yet belong. If I absolutely had to bet Stroud this season to win MVP, I’d wait and hope the Texans start the season slow with a 0-2 or 1-3 record, then fire on Stroud at a greatly reduced price, hoping he gets hot down the stretch and leads Houston to the lofty expectations being bestowed upon them.
Week 1 bet: Same as the Colts
Miami Dolphins O/U 9.5 wins (-125/+105)
Miami should once again have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. Tyreek Hill was tracking towards the first ever 2,000-yard receiving season before he got hurt. De’Von Achane had maybe the most explosively efficient season ever by a running back as a rookie. I fully expect Mike McDaniel to once again have some new wrinkles in this offense for the rest of the league to contend with. It’s going to be tough to get to 10-plus wins in the AFC East, but I think Miami can go over 9.5 wins (-125) if the offense stays healthy.
Season-long prop I’m watching: De’Von Achane over 775.5 rushing yards (-115)
After watching what Achane did in 2023, I’m fully expecting big things in his second season. Achane only played in 11 games as a rookie but rushed for 800 yards and averaged 7.8 yards per attempt. His workload should increase from the mere 103 attempts he saw last year. I love taking his over on rushing yards (-115) right now. I wouldn’t be surprised if this closes above 850 by the time we get to Week 1 kickoff. McDaniel is going to have fun finding creative ways to get the speedy Achane the ball in space.
Week 1 bet: Dolphins -3.5 vs. Jaguars
One of the most difficult situational tests in all of football is playing an early season game in Miami. The heat and humidity is stifling as the Dolphins put their opponents on a sun-drenched sideline and make them wear their dark uniforms. Mike McDaniel’s offenses have always looked their most potent early in the season before the newest wrinkles get put on tape. Even though I think Trevor Lawrence is the better QB in this game, I’ll still ride with the Dolphins -3.5 (-105).
New York Jets O/U 9.5 wins (-150, +130)
This comes down to one thing only: how many games does Aaron Rodgers start? I personally believe Rodgers will bounce back ably from his achilles tendon injury and help the Jets fly over 9.5 wins (-150) in 2024. Outside of the QB position, this is one of the best rosters in the NFL. They significantly upgraded the offensive line to protect Rodgers and the defense has long been one of the stingiest in the NFL. I still believe Rodgers has Top-5 QB talent in his right arm so I look at the Jets as a serious Super Bowl contender with Rodgers under center.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Breece Hall over 7.5 rushing TD (-105)
Hall is set up for a breakout 2024 season (once again) if Rodgers is healthy under center. The Jets have made it abundantly clear that they are going to lean on Hall as a true workhorse back who stays on the field in all situations, including goal line/short yardage work. Again, assuming this offense is greatly improved due to Rodgers at QB, Hall should have plenty of opportunity to convert red zone carries into 8+ rushing TDs this year.
Week 1 bet: Jets +5.5 (-110) | Jets ML (+200) at 49ers
Last year I picked the Jets to upset the Bills on Monday Night in Week 1 because I thought the market was severely undervaluing what Rodgers would do to this team. Miraculously, the Jets won that game despite the Rodgers injury because of special teams and defense. This year, I’m hoping I can just rely on a healthy Rodgers for four quarters, but once again I think the market is undervaluing this Jets team against elite competition. Rodgers is from the Bay Area and I expect him to remind the world how good he still is in Week 1 against the 49ers.
Dallas Cowboys O/U 10.5 wins (+120/-140)
Despite Jerry Jones’ claims that his Cowboys are “all in” for the 2024 season, the proof is in the pudding: Dallas is worse off than they were a year ago. They lost considerable talent and experience on both sides of the ball and did little to replace it in free agency. One can argue that Philadelphia, Washington and New York all got better on paper this offseason, while Dallas got worse. I’m betting they finish under 10.5 wins (-140) in 2024 and Mike McCarthy coaches his last game as the Cowboys head coach.
Season-long prop I’m watching: CeeDee Lamb to have most regular season TD receptions (+1000)
This is a bet I’m willing to make before Week 1. Lamb led the league in targets in 2023 and is highly likely to do so again. The Cowboys have very little around him to challenge for looks from Dak Prescott. Lamb scored 12 TDs last year but only had one through the first six weeks of the season. If he can avoid the slow start, then we’re looking at a player who can reasonably score 15+ times in 2024.
Week 1 bet: Same as the Browns
Cincinnati Bengals O/U 10.5 wins (-130, +110)
Last year I nailed a bold prediction that the Bengals would finish last in the AFC North and miss the playoffs. Joe Burrow entered the season at far less than 100% and eventually succumbed to a season-ending wrist injury. The Bengals defense also slipped due to the combination of natural regression and talent attrition. I am not near as harsh on the Bengals this year, but I’ll still go under 10.5 wins (+110). Burrow is back and healthy but this is still going to be a very difficult division to get to 11+ wins. The only team in the AFC North I think capable of that are the Ravens.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Joe Burrow over 4025.5 passing yards (-115)
The Bengals offense is built for Burrow to sling that thing all over the field. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are a formidable duo on the outside and rookie Jermaine Burton has immense potential. I expect Burrow to be near the top of the league in attempts this season, and if that’s the case he should fly over this number if he remains healthy enough to play in 15+ games.
Week 1 bet: Bengals -9.5 vs. Patriots
I have no problem laying the large number with the Bengals -9.5 vs. New England in Week 1. Whether it’s journeyman Jacoby Brissett or rookie Drake Maye at QB, the Patriots should struggle to put points on the board. Meanwhile, the Bengals offense is in a good spot at home against a Patriots defense that no longer is coordinated by Bill Belichick.
Detroit Lions O/U 10.5 wins (-115, -105)
America’s darling, everyone loves the Detroit Lions. Not this guy. While I think this is a talented team that will contend for the playoffs, I’m going under 10.5 wins (-105) in 2024. I’m banking on some natural regression at QB for Jared Goff, who has proven to be a sporadic performer from year-to-year in his career, and this team going from being the hunter playing a weak schedule to the hunted playing a first-place schedule.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Jameson Williams over 675.5 yards (-115)
I am heavily invested in the Jameson Williams Year 3 breakout. I love his receiving prop over 675.5 yards (-115). The opportunity should be there for the former first round pick who is now a full two years removed from ACL surgery. Josh Reynolds is gone from the team and Detroit did nothing in free agency or the draft to fill that void. They’re clearly relying on Williams to do so. I expect his snap share and target share to rise dramatically in 2024. Williams is one of my favorite picks in fantasy football this year to be a surprising league winner.
Week 1 bet: Rams +3.5 at Lions (-105)
In a rematch of last year’s highly-entertaining Wild Card round matchup, I’ll take the points with the Rams +3.5 @ Lions (-105) | ML (+155). Los Angeles covered this number in that playoff game, 24-23, and almost won the game outright. The Rams are a live underdog to win the game outright but having more than a field goal head start on the scoreboard sounds good to me. This week 1 matchup might be symbolic for how I view the Lions this season vs. last. Week 1 last year they went into Arrowhead and beat the Chiefs in a shocker. This year, I think it’s a bit of a reality check with expectations now set sky high.
Philadelphia Eagles O/U 10.5 wins (+105, -125)
Despite the disastrous finish to 2023, I’ll take the Eagles to go over 10.5 wins (+105) in 2024. Philadelphia still has one of the most talented rosters in the league. Nick Sirianni certainly needs to do something to fix the vibes that were permeating this locker room from a season ago, perhaps the hires at coordinator (Kellen Moore – OC | Vic Fangio – DC) will do the trick. Philly looks like a legit Super Bowl contender to me.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Jalen Hurts under 9.5 rush TD (-115)
The Tush Push is the most lethal play we have in the NFL and last year Hurts leveraged that play into 15 rushing TDs! I see some serious regression coming in this department. Center Jason Kelce is retired. Saquon Barkley is now sharing a backfield with Hurts. Kellen Moore is calling plays. D’Andre Swift is no longer there to be tackled almost every game at the 1-yard line. I still think the Eagles will effectively use the tush push, I just don’t think they’ll be near as many opportunities necessary to use it this season.
Week 1 bet: Same as the Packers
Buffalo Bills O/U 10.5 wins (+130, -150)
Only because I hate the price on the under, I’ll take Buffalo over 10.5 wins (+130) in 2024. This is difficult since I love the Jets and think the general public is a bit off on their expectations of Miami falling back. It’s hard to have three teams get to 10+ wins in the same division. Buffalo has gone over their win total in each of the past seven seasons, but this looks to be the weakest team they’ve had in a couple years. I believe some schematic changes on offense will benefit this team in December and January and once again Josh Allen will help them to 11+ wins.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Josh Allen under 3750.5 passing yards (-115)
At first, it looks like we may need injury to help us get here with this bet. However, the Bills appear to be making a philosophical change to the way they play offense. Under Joe Brady, Buffalo is going to try to use the brute force of their running game to wear opponents down. Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are gone from the wide receiver room and with Curtis Samuel and Dalton Kincaid as the top pass-catching options, Josh Allen’s aDOT is likely to drop precipitously this year.
Week 1 bet: Cardinals-Bills over 48.0 (-110)
I think we have serious sneaky shootout potential in Orchard Park. I’ll play the Cardinals’ matchup with Buffalo over 48.0 (-110). You’d be surprised to know Arizona led the league in explosive run rate (10-plus yards) last year at 15.1%. Buffalo ranked a very respectable 10th in that metric. Both teams can run the rock and both QBs, Josh Allen and Kyler Murray, can make big plays happen through the air and on the ground. Add in the debut of Marvin Harrison Jr. and I like the setting for this game to pop off in Week 1.
Baltimore Ravens O/U 11.5 wins (+140, -165)
The AFC North looks like the toughest division in the NFL to me, so I’ll take the Ravens to finish under 11.5 wins (-165) despite the ridiculous juice. An 11-6 record is still very good, and likely wins the division. Baltimore has to contend with some expected regression from a defense that played at historic levels last year but lost coordinator Mike McDonald who was hired as the new head coach in Seattle.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Derrick Henry over 10.5 rushing TD (-110)
Everyone is excited to see what Derrick Henry looks like in the same backfield as Lamar Jackson. Henry is tied with Christian McCaffrey with the highest rushing TD prop in the entire league at 10.5. Despite the declining peripherals and the advancing age, Henry is still expected to produce a lot of scores this season in this situation. Perhaps against my better judgment, I find myself thinking the situation trumps everything else. I’ll take Henry over 10.5 rushing TD (-110) by just a hair.
Week 1 bet: Ravens-Chiefs over 46.5 (-115)
Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes give us our first stateside game of the NFL season in Kansas City. I like over 46.5 (-115). Mahomes not only has a lot more at WR to help him rediscover more explosive pass plays this season, but the Ravens defense is one I look at to regress significantly from last season. They’ll still be a good unit, but last year was an impossible-to-replicate, historical campaign. Lamar Jackson in chase mode not only plays fast, but becomes prone to turnovers that juice scoring, as well.
Kansas City Chiefs O/U 11.5 wins (-115, -105)
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Why Erin Dolan is picking the Chiefs to lead the NFL in wins
Erin Dolan explains why the Kansas City Chiefs could be a good bet to finish the NFL regular season with the most wins in the league.
I’ll pass on ever betting against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs again. Over 11.5 wins (-115) is the play for me. Not only does the offense look much more explosive on paper with the additions of Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy, but the AFC West division will provide little resistance to the Chiefs once again winning 12+ games.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Chiefs to win Super Bowl (+550)
The Chiefs are attempting to become the first team ever to three-peat in the Super Bowl era. Eight other teams have had the opportunity to do so and all of them failed with the 1991 49ers coming closest, losing to the New York Giants in the NFC Championship Game. If you think the Chiefs are primed to make history, or you’re just a Kansas City fan, I say now is the time to buy the Chiefs Super Bowl future at +550. This is the best price you’re likely going to get on Kansas City in this market, so don’t wait.
Week 1 bet: Same as the Ravens
San Francisco 49ers O/U 11.5 wins (+115,-135)
The 49ers will once again have one of the most talented rosters in the NFL this season, but I’m taking the under 11.5 wins (-135) in 2024. San Francisco has played a lot of extra football over the past five seasons and that starts to accumulate. Brandon Aiyuk is not likely to see much action in training camp as he looks for a new deal. The schedule does them no favors with multiple opponents coming off a bye to play San Francisco. The rest of the NFC West looks much better on paper coming into this season vs. last.
Season-long prop I’m watching: Christian McCaffrey under 1150.5 rushing yards (-130)
This is obviously an uncomfortable bet to make given McCaffrey’s dominance last season. He led the league in rushing by almost 300 yards, going for 1,459 on the ground. He touched the ball 339 times last season and was remarkably durable, which may be hard to replicate. If he stays on the field for all 17 games and the 49ers are once again playing from ahead often, this bet is in trouble, but again I’m betting that some regression is coming for this 49ers team and this is a way it could manifest.
Week 1 bet: Same as the Jets
